Number of the day

23 

That’s how many intelligence agencies co-authored a recent report into China-sponsored hacking, urging targets to better defend themselves. The co-author agencies hail from the US, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK, the Czech Republic, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, and Spain.

He yens for it

Japan's 102nd prime minister (Shigeru Ishiba) announced his resignation Sunday night, joining a long and growing list of Tokyo’s short-lived leaders.

So let's take a quick look at why he quit, and why it matters.

First, why'd Ishiba quit? Three reasons.

1. His position was untenable following historic parliamentary losses, an internal party report into why, and senior party resignations. Ishiba's allies then urged him to step down to avoid a divisive party vote scheduled for today (Monday). Why?

2. Folks in Japan are unhappy for familiar reasons, ranging from economic stagnation and a doubling in rice prices, to a long-running finance scandal plaguing Ishiba's party. But why'd he resign now?

3. Amid all the internal pressure above, Ishiba's Thursday trade deal with President Trump (settling US tariffs at 15%) was a milestone of sorts, that gave the famously-stubborn Japanese leader an honourable exit: mission accomplished.

Then second… does this palace intrigue really matter? Yes, for three reasons:

1. It furthers the leadership vacuum in the world's ~fifth-largest economy, driving even more uncertainty for the rest of us, including…

2. Economically, we've seen a sell-off in Japan's yen and bonds, pushing yields to record highs as investors play wait-and-see. Why? A front-runner replacement like Takaichi, for example, has been calling for more government spending and lower rates. She (yes, possibly Japan’s first female PM) also has spicy views on…

3. Strategically, there's division around how Japan should play its cards. The outgoing Ishiba, for example, copped flak for being soft on China, whereas Takaichi is hawkish on China, North Korea, and beyond. Other contenders like Koizumi Jr (son of a popular PM) will irk China and Korea because of his war shrine visits. It all complicates any US efforts at a united front in countering China.

And while Japan figures itself out, its seat stays relatively silent at key forums like the G20, APEC, and the Quad, while its traditional stabilising role in the region goes into drift.

So what next? Ishiba technically stays as PM until his party picks a successor, most likely in early October. But even then, there are doubts they can cobble together a majority.

And either way, there's a solid chance any new leader will want to just roll the dice via another election rather than limp along in a minority government.

But then… it's hard to see Japan's tired electorate rewarding this establishment ever again.

Intrigue’s Take

One reason we're briefing you on Japan's politics is because it's arguably a preview (if not yet a microcosm) of almost everywhere else:

• First, governments are struggling to deliver on voter expectations around economic vulnerability, regional instability, and political integrity, meaning…

• Second, voters are punishing the establishment, making it even more difficult for its leaders to come up with workable solutions, adding even more momentum to…

• Third, populist alternatives are appealing to frustrated voters, promising simple solutions but sometimes with radical pivots on anything from trade to alliances.

It’s all a self-reinforcing process of domestic and cross-border instability, and the fact it can even claim a political stronghold like Japan's ruling LDP — despite (if not because of) running Tokyo for most of the post-war era — suggests no political stronghold is safe. 

Sound smarter:

• Ishiba is due to mark his first year in office on October 1st.

Meanwhile, elsewhere…

Extra Intrigue

🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news

• An executive named Zoe Hamburger has left her top job with McDonald’s UK (with a name like that, she obviously got promoted to run McDonald’s Netherlands).

• Speaking of excellent names, a lawyer sharing the name of Mark Zuckerberg has sued Facebook for repeatedly suspending his account. 

• A Polish millionaire CEO has finally apologised after viral footage showed him snatching an autographed hat from a child at the US Open. 

• Speaking of cheeky videos, Kenyan social media has condemned a Spanish man after he posted footage of himself pouring beer down an elephant’s trunk.

• And a 102-year-old Japanese man has become the oldest person to climb Mt Fuji. Speaking of Mt Fuji…

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Video of the day

Help us, Will Smith!

Oh wait, no: turns out this is an AI-generated video that Tokyo authorities are now circulating, showing apocalyptic scenes of a blocked-out sun and dust-covered streets amid a hypothetical future eruption at Mount Fuji.

The idea is to raise awareness and preparedness, though authorities have been careful to note that the volcano, which last exploded in 1707, isn’t showing any abnormal activity.

Today’s poll

Last Thursday’s poll: How do you think China's military now compares to the US?

🎖️ It's decades away (14%)
⌛ Just a few years off (42%)
💨 Already neck-and-neck (40%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)

Your two cents:

• ⌛ A.M: “US might still have the tech edge but China has a strong scale up / industrial advantage.”

• 💨 M: “Since most wars are proxy wars this century, China's ability to mass-produce drones, AI software, and weapon systems will give them dominant power on the global stage.”

• 🎖️ R.M: “Despite its shiny kit, the PLA is untested in conflict and continues to have a two track command and control structure that delays decision making.”