Number of the day

87%

That’s how much China’s war-related export prices to Russia have spiked since 2021, according to a new report out of Finland’s central bank. No favours among friends?

Calendar stuffing

Ahhhh, December — there are few better feelings than fobbing Barry-From-Finance off with your out-of-office autoreply, or telling Janet-From-HR to circle back in the new year.

But December can also throw curveballs — eg, this time last year, a UN-listed terrorist was stretching his hamstrings before coming in from the cold to oust Syria’s Assad regime.

So lest any Intriguers feel unprepared as we take a quick Thanksgiving break then return in December (aka Monday), here are some big dates marked in the Intrigue calendar.

• 5 December – FIFA Peace Prize

Thought Nobel was the only peace prize in town? Think again! The world’s FIFA football body is taking a well-earned break from rank corruption to give geopolitics a try.

Why? This new prize is on-brand for FIFA boss Giovanni Infantino, who’s helping the Saudis win the 2034 cup one day, then cosying up with the 2026 co-host (Trump) the next.

In short, the guy isn’t afraid to wield FIFA’s influence, whether pushing reconstruction in Gaza, or reconciliation between the Koreas (he once proposed they joint-host).

Anyway, word is not only that President Trump might be the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize winner, but that the prize was actually conceived in lieu of the president getting a Nobel.

And speaking of missed opportunities…

• Early December – Jianxiawo lithium mine 

Rumour is the world’s largest EV battery-maker (China’s CATL) might soon resume operations at one of the world’s largest lithium mines — its very own Jianxiawo site.

Global lithium prices are already slumping in anticipation given the mine accounts for ~3% of all supply. But we’re still intrigued why authorities shuttered the mine in the first place — the August announcement chalked it up as a permitting issue, but it’s odd for a mercantilist power to curb its own critical mineral supplies over a mere permit.

Our take is China’s authorities might’ve been using the lithium supply glut to further centralise control, trim inefficient operations, and stabilise prices. And speaking of China…

• 16 December – US public hearing on China trade

We were surprised when the Trump administration recently launched an investigation into whether China had complied with US trade deals from back in 2020. That’s years ago, and we already know the answer (no).

So why this public hearing? It’s probably to signal a tougher US enforcement posture, build leverage amid ongoing US-China trade talks, and show action after September’s reports that China bought zero US soybeans for the first time in seven years.

Meanwhile… 

• 28 December – Myanmar election

Myanmar’s 2020 election delivered such a crushing defeat for the military’s preferred party, the generals threw their toys out of the cot and staged a coup three months later — and that fateful decision triggered a civil war that’s still tearing the country apart today.

But with China-Russia support now helping the junta stabilise its territorial control, the generals are hoping sham elections (with the 2020 winners banned) might quench foreign criticism, legitimise the regime, and pave a way back to international acceptance.

Ditto over in Guinea, where the same general who seized power via a 2021 coup is now hoping 28 December elections will legitimise his grip on power. And semi-ditto in the Central African Republic, where the president is gunning for a controversial third term the same day again.

Intrigue’s Take

Friday night is often when governments ‘take out the trash’ — ie, quietly release bad news in hopes everyone’s already too deep into their Buffy binge to care.

And December is kind of like the year’s Friday night, with history full of spicy pre-Christmas releases that leaders hoped we’d miss amid our turkey haze, whether…

• The NSA’s massive 2014 dump of surveillance violations, or

• The UK’s 2015 dump on everything from the Muslim Brotherhood to badgers.

So all that to say… while Barry and Janet can wait, it’s still worth paying attention!

Also worth noting in your diary: 

• 3 December –  NATO Foreign Minister meeting 

• 6-7 December – Doha Forum (like a geopolitical Davos)

• 9-10 December – Fed policy meeting

• 14 December – Chile’s runoff election

• 17 December – EU Western Balkans summit 

• Mid December – China’s Central Economic Work Conference

Meanwhile, elsewhere…

Extra Intrigue

The Intrigue jobs board 💼

• Specialist, Defense and Security @ McKinsey & Co in the USA

• Policy Analyst @ OECD in Mexico City

• Associate Fellow @ United Nations Staff College in Turin, Italy

• Economic Diplomacy Officer @ British Embassy in Bogota

Art of the day

Capitals are now announcing who’ll fly their flag at the art world’s Olympics, aka the 61st Venice Art Biennale kicking off in May. And after months of speculation, the US has surprised everyone by going with Utah-born and Mexico-based sculptor, Alma Allen.

We say “surprised everyone” because even Allen himself was surprised, having not actually applied for the gig. With the traditional process reportedly hit by politics and the government shutdown, State’s announcement highlights Allen’s focus on “collective optimism and self-realization” — his relatively low profile might’ve helped, too.

Today’s poll

Yesterday’s poll: If Jakarta is the biggest, which city do you think is the most underrated?

🇲🇽 Mexico City (39%)
🇵🇹 Porto (33%)
🇰🇬 Bishkek (11%)
🇸🇳 Dakar (8%)
🇰🇭 Kampot (5%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (4%)

Your two cents:

• 🇲🇽 D.D: “Mexico City by far. So much art, history, cuisine and culture. ”

• 🇵🇹 P.S: “Mexico City can’t be underrated – it’s currently experiencing backlash from locals against American transplants!”

• 🇰🇬 T.N: “Bishkek FTW. Sporclers unite on all things Kyrgyzstan! #BishkekOrBust”

• ✍️ G.C: “El Paso.”