Could Honduras-gate be real?

We were probably overdue for a new 'gate' — we had Watergate, Pizzagate, Gamergate, Bill Gate(s).

So it's time we briefed you on a new gate absolutely dominating headlines in Latin America, though mostly flying under the radar everywhere else.

Ladies and gentlemen? We present... Honduras-gate:

In late April, a mysterious 'HondurasGate.ch' site appeared online — that Swiss (.ch) domain is common for leakers wanting (or being seen to want) stronger data protections.

The group, claiming to be anonymous Honduran journalists, started dropping 37 leaked audios from January to April this year, allegedly featuring names like...

• Juan Orlando Hernández, the conservative ex-president of Honduras jailed on US drug trafficking charges then pardoned by Trump 2.0 in December. And…

• Nasry Asfura, the conservative new Honduran president endorsed by Trump 2.0.

The purported leaks feature Hernández allegedly (he denies it) saying things like...

• “The prime minister of Israel is going to support us… They had everything to do with my release", and

• “We’re going to set up a cell from the United States… files are coming against Mexico, against Colombia”

The alleged plot in a nutshell? (“ahhh what am I doing inside this nutshell”): the conservative governments of the US, Israel, Honduras, and Argentina are supposedly cooking up a transnational media op to smear leftist leaders across Latin America.

And two of the alleged targets have now weighed in, with Mexico’s Sheinbaum shrugging it off, while Colombia’s Petro tweeted, “this is how the far-right communication networks move. The money comes from cocaine and from Israel.” He’s warning it’s all an attempt to meddle in Colombia’s elections later this month.

As for that Israel cameo? Israel is (ahem) hardly a stranger to wild theories, but this specific cameo alleges the Israeli PM had helped Hernández secure December’s shock Trump pardon as a way to say thanks for moving the Honduran embassy to Jerusalem.

So... is any of this for real?

• Believers argue Hernández is undeniably dodgy, and this feels like a Trump 2.0-era reboot of the Operation Condor right-wing playbook: the 1975-80s cross-border ideological alignment to crush leftist movements during the Cold War.

• Critics point to a) the long Honduran history of dubious audio bombshells against rivals; b) the fact these leakers partnered with Spain's 'Canal Red' outlet (which describes itself as "militant in left-wing values"); plus c) the lack of any independent deepfake forensics, to argue it's a leftist plot to discredit the right.

• Then there’s a third camp warning it could be less left vs right, and more (say) a ploy by a hostile intelligence service (Moscow?) to discredit and distract the US across Latin America. Beijing would also theoretically have an interest in ousting the Honduran conservatives before they switch recognition back to Taiwan.

Oh, and then the media coverage itself tells a whole other story — is the English-language / conservative press ignoring this story because it's so flimsy and seems like a hit-job by Pablo Iglesias? (Spain’s leftist ex-deputy PM who founded Canal Red)

Or are they ignoring this story because they're suppressing the truth...? Either way, that media split itself is now just part of the intrigue.