The question on everyone’s lips is no longer when this northern winter might end — Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow on Groundhog Day yesterday, meaning six more weeks of winter, though given this guy’s poor record of accuracy, maybe it’s time we stopped taking meteorological insights from a rodent in Pennsylvania?
Anyway, the question is now whether Trump will hit Iran again. So let’s break it down, starting with…
Why Trump might hit Iran…
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- He’s done it before
Trump’s appetite for force seems to grow with the eating. So, riding high after this year’s Maduro opp, last year’s Iran hits, and 2020’s Soleimani assassination, the president’s overriding thought could well be… why not go again? Which gets us to…
- He’s ready to go again
While reportedly first hitting pause given concerns (internal and allied) that the US wasn’t ready for any counterattack, there’s now a staggering amount of US firepower nearby.
The regime’s own praetorian guard (the IRGC) is running naval drills in the Hormuz chokepoint, but that 24-mile stretch carrying a fifth of the world’s oil is now completely surrounded, whether by the USS Lincoln carrier group off the Gulf of Oman, the ~three combat ships off Bahrain, the ~four destroyers right near the Strait, the same F-15Es in Jordan that played a supporting role back in June, or the build-up on Diego Garcia.
- He’s said he’ll go again
Trump says lots of things, though he’s been notably verbose on Iran, whether telling protestors “help is on its way”, warning the regime not to kill them because “we are locked and loaded and ready to go“, or when the regime kept on killing them anyway, vowing it’ll “pay a very big price” — he also flagged, “it’s time to look for new leadership in Iran.”
Now, we’re not winning a Pulitzer when we point out that Trump doesn’t always do what he says, but doing nothing would be quite the backdown at this point.
- The regime is weak
We’ve long charted the stats, whether it’s the 50% rial collapse, 50% inflation, or crippling drought. But here’s another example: last year’s major bank collapse saw regime-insiders get bailouts so big, and the central bank print so much money to cover the shortfall, Tehran had to cut popular subsidies to make ends meet.
It was arguably this spectacular mix of corruption and hardship that ignited it all. And that’s before we get to, say, the Iranian air defences now offline due to US-Israeli hits. So Trump might feel it’s his chance to topple this old US foe once and for all. Then finally…
- Oil prices are low
He’s also famously market-sensitive and oil-boosterish, so with crude now trading in the low 60s, Trump has a decent cushion to absorb any market jitters, which leads us to…
Why Trump might not hit Iran…
- US-China trade talks
The one country buying most of Iran’s sanctioned oil is also the one with a record of hitting back so hard, it nearly broke the world’s deepest market (US Treasuries). We’re talking, of course, about China, which gets up to ~15% of its oil from Iran (plus ~4% from Venezuela). Together, that’s enough leverage to be a problem for China, right as Trump is gunning for a big trade deal to crown his planned April visit to Beijing.
That kind of leverage could place this point in either the for or against column, but we’ll drop it in the against for now given how much Trump seems to prioritise a big China deal.
- Allied jitters
While several regional partners quietly (or loudly in Israel’s case) welcome a weaker Iran, they’re also actively distancing themselves from any role in US planning. It’s partly for domestic optics, partly to avoid Iranian retaliation, and partly (for immediate neighbours like Turkey) to avoid border spill-over. For the Emiratis, Saudis, and Qataris, there’s also an awareness that this constant conflict is just bad for their grand hub visions.
Meanwhile, US allies in Europe don’t exactly seem top of Trump’s mind lately, but they’re mostly also pushing for a return to diplomacy. Still, it’s possible all this allied unease just shapes Trump’s tactics (go solo) rather than appetite. And finally…
- Post-hit uncertainty
In explaining his approach to Maduro, Trump recently drew an interesting comparison to the disastrous fallout from the US invasion of Iraq — ie, sometimes the chaos after a hit is worse than any problem you thought a hit might solve.
So… will he do it?
There’s now word Trump’s envoy (Witkoff) is headed to Istanbul for Iran talks this Friday, though Trump pulled a similar fake-out before last year’s hits. Plus throw in the rough headlines back home (Epstein, ICE, shutdown), and you can imagine a scenario in which (say) Trump decides to shape Friday’s talks by approving limited, targeted hits in parallel.
Intrigue’s Take
While the will-he-won’t-he question is a guessing game, it does open two big debates.
First is the FAFO vs TACO debate to decipher whether a particular decision falls into the F*@k Around & Find Out, or Trump Always Chickens Out category. It’s hardly science but there are some guardrails to consider: TACO seems more likely to apply when a) the other side is Russia, b) there are US casualty risks, and/or c) there are US market risks. A lot depends on the details, but none would be flashing obviously red for Trump right now.
The other is whether this big show of strength against Iran is simultaneously projecting weakness to others. How so? Trump’s new National Defense Strategy spells it out, warning “one or more potential opponents might act together in a coordinated or opportunistic fashion across multiple theaters.” It’s framing politely what others (like Rutte and Merz) have already stated bluntly: if Xi ever attacks Taiwan, he’ll coordinate with Putin to split US forces between two theatres. And Trump’s top Pentagon official (Colby) has practically made a career arguing the US can no longer fight two big wars concurrently.
That’s where this big Iran build-up comes in: as spectacular as it is, it’s now taken weeks, and can you guess where the Lincoln carrier group was located the moment Trump redirected it over to the Middle East? It was steaming near the South China Sea.
