US and Ukrainian officials have just wrapped their peace talks in sunny Saudi Arabia, and we’re sure you’ve got questions, so let’s get into it.
First, to clarify, these peace talks were about peace between Ukraine and its Russian occupiers, though you’d be forgiven (and arguably a little right) for assuming this was also about patching things up between Kyiv and DC after that meeting in the Oval Office.
Who was there?
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Marco Rubio led the US delegation, alongside national security advisor Mike Waltz. And on the other side of the white flower composition sat Ukraine’s Andriy Yermak (chief of staff), Andrii Sybiha (foreign minister), and Rustem Umerov (defence minister).
What were the pre-talk vibes?
Things were looking rosy in the lead-up:
- President Zelensky floated the idea of a pause on aerial and naval attacks
- Yermak (his chief of staff) reiterated Ukraine’s thanks for US support, and
- Rubio told journalists he was feeling optimistic,though reiterated his expectation that ultimately Ukraine would struggle to regain its full pre-invasion turf.
But what did the talks achieve?
Quite a bit. According to a joint statement just released, the two sides agreed:
- To back a US proposal for an immediate 30-day ceasefire with Russia
- To restore US intelligence sharing and security assistance
- To negotiate “an enduring peace that provides for Ukraine’s long-term security” (reflecting persistent fears that Putin will simply re-arm then re-attack)
- To finally sign their critical minerals deal (billed as a way to “guarantee Ukraine’s long-term prosperity and security” rather than to repay the US), and
- They highlighted the importance of Russia returning “forcibly transferred Ukrainian children” (for which Putin is still under an international arrest warrant).
Meanwhile, Donald Trump has suggested President Zelensky is now once again welcome back at the White House, signalling a thawing since (yes) that meeting.
What’s next?
As Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky puts it, “if Russia agrees, the ceasefire will take effect immediately.” So the ball’s now in Putin’s court.
So far, that’s looked like another barrage of Russian missile strikes overnight, plus criticism of the ceasefire from Putin’s rubber-stamp parliament (alleging it’ll be Ukraine, not Russia, who uses any pause to re-arm).
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Zelensky has always been wary of proposed ceasefires unless they come with a) security guarantees, and b) credible monitoring — that’s to avoid another situation in which any ceasefire simply offers Putin a breather to freely rotate and reinforce assets then go harder once the ceasefire expires (or once he accuses Ukraine of a breach).
It’s unclear whether this proposed ceasefire satisfies either of those criteria, though a resumption in US intelligence sharing at least hints at how the monitoring piece could look. But then it’s unclear how willing (if at all) Trump would be to ‘pre-bunk’ Putin’s justifications like Biden did, let alone impose costs on any breaches.
Anyway, our sense is Zelensky has decided that the costs of any imperfect ceasefire are currently outweighed by the benefits of a) re-positioning himself as part of the solution, and thereby b) stabilising ties with Trump, who still holds critical cards for Ukraine. Oddly enough, Putin may well make the same calculation for Russia if he agrees to this temporary ceasefire.