We’re testing nukes again?

President Trump’s pledge to “immediately start testing our nuclear weapons on an equal basis” sent shivers through even the grinchiest of Halloween hearts last week.

Why Trump’s big nuclear announcement?

The president told 60 Minutes that rivals like Russia, China, Pakistan, and North Korea are already testing their own nukes, and he’s not just talking delivery systems(missiles): “they test way underground where people don’t know exactly what’s happening with the test.”

So Trump is seemingly accusing rivals of covertly shattering the global moratorium on nuke testing that’s mostly held since India and Pakistan’s tests in 1998. We say ‘mostly’ because North Korea went full North Korea and ran six tests between 2006 and 2017.

And yet while these latest headlines are explosive (sorry), the actual claims aren’t new: US agencies have already argued Russia (at Novaya Zemlya) and China (at Lop Nur) were running low-yield tests in 2019.

To be clear, Trump’s response isn’t new, either: he mulled tests during his first term, too.

Anyway, all the above, plus Russia’s recent flexing and China’s rapid arsenal expansion (from way behind), is why Trump now argues the US must follow suit. For him, it’s about the US maintaining a) readiness, b) equivalence, and c) deterrence.

But even a clarification from Trump’s energy secretary that he’s just testing “noncritical” components rather than full-blown nukes wasn’t enough to calm the world’s jitters.

So why the world’s big reaction?

First, hitting the ⏯️ button on any kind of US nuclear testing now could trigger the exact kind of cascading tit-for-testing everyone was trying to stop in the first place.

Second, it’s actually rivals like Russia, China, and others who have the most to gain from unrestrained testing, as they’re still lagging across most technical dimensions (US simulations and ‘sub-critical’ tests should already ensure stockpile reliability).

Third, breaking the dam on testing might also weaken related US efforts on non-proliferation (stopping others from getting nukes) — eg, a resumption in US testing arguably undermines US credibility when pressuring North Korea and Iran to just chill.

And finally, any resumption in tit-for-testing could also rattle US allies like Japan and Korea who are right near nuclear powers like North Korea, China, and Russia. And that, in turn, might boost local voices already there demanding their own nuclear deterrent.

Anyway, that’s why this year’s spookiest Halloween moment wasn’t actually the ‘cereal killer’ costume (a massive, bloodied Cheerios box fyi), but rather, the possibility the US might resume nuclear testing.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

Many Intriguers will have grown up in a world that never seemed too worried about nukes, particularly compared to the nuclear shadow that loomed over much of the 20th century. So if anything, this whole news cycle is a reminder that even if the world stopped worrying, the nuclear age never really ended.

But… why did the world stop worrying about nukes there for a bit? Statistically for most Intriguers, it’s because of both where we grew up (under America’s nuclear umbrella) and when we grew up (after the Cold War). With the Soviet system collapsing and a weakened Kremlin pausing the arms race, a nuclear equilibrium emerged.

But that equilibrium is now fading, not just because others like China want parity at the big kid table, but also because allies who’ve long lounged under the US nuclear umbrella are now quietly wondering how much they can still rely on US promises of protection.

And that brings us to one of the many strange game theory-esque things about this latest nuclear news cycle: even if Trump’s intention was to deter rivals into pausing their own alleged testing, his delivery (a shock pledge to resume US testing for the first time since 1992) might’ve had the opposite effect — ie, confirming to enemies and allies alike that this is indeed a new, less predictable America. And so what does the world need in response? More nukes, of course.

Sound even smarter:

• Russia and the US together have 87% of the world’s nukes, with Russia at ~5,459 and the US at 5,177. China now has ~600, but is adding ~100 per year, while France has 290, the UK 225, India 180, Pakistan 120, Israel 90, and North Korea’s 50+.
• The US signed but never ratified the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, as senate critics argued a) US simulations weren’t enough to ensure readiness, and b) the treaty’s monitoring system would miss low-yield tests by rivals.
• The last US-Russia nuclear weapons pact is due to expire in February, with both sides accusing the other of breaches, whether via Putin’s new weapons or Trump’s proposed Golden Dome (which Putin says would disrupt the status quo).
• China’s Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics just announced (🇨🇳) the world’s first reactor that ‘breeds’ uranium from the more plentiful thorium. The scientists emphasise energy independence benefits, but rivals will fret about other uses.