Who won the US-Iran war?

Just 90 minutes before President Trump’s 8pm Tuesday deadline expired, news broke of an immediate two-week ceasefire partly based on Iran’s 10-point plan, which Trump argues is a “workable basis on which to negotiate” via talks that’ll now continue in Pakistan.

There’s plenty of mutual yelling around the details, but the only four explicitly-and-mutually confirmed parts of this ceasefire are now an immediate…

• i) Mutual halt to attacks
• ii) Re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz
• iii) Pause in related fighting (eg, Israel-Hezbollah), and
• iv) Two-week talks runway to iron out the rest.

So, it’s really too early for any final declarations, but what the heck… who won? Let’s take a quick tour de table, starting with…

• Iran

State outlets are declaring a historic victory for three big reasons: first, the same theocratic regime still runs Iran, even after ~38 days of US-Israeli hits; second, that same regime is still sitting on ~440kg in highly-enriched leverage uranium; and third, what everyone long feared as this regime’s theoretical Hormuz control is now real and effective.

A bonus fourth angle: the regime’s Farsi translations include a continued right to nuclear enrichment, something missing from the various English versions doing the rounds.

Now sure, scores of top regime figures are now meeting their Maker, a chunk of the regime’s military might now lies in ruins, the entire region now hates the regime more, while the US and Israel still rule Iran’s skies, but a younger Khamenei is still sitting on enough hard power to a) block Hormuz, and b) repress dissent. Does he need much more?

As for next steps, these talks now theoretically proceed on the basis of Iran’s own 10-point-plan, which seems a win: capitals always fight to pen the first draft, because every edit thereafter comes at a price: oh, you want us to delete that bit about Iran charging a $2M Hormuz fee? You don’t like sanctions relief? That’ll cost you, America.

Speaking of which, let’s look at…

• The United States

The White House is also claiming victory for three main reasons, emphasising the thousands of targets struck across Iran, the deaths of key regime figures, and the immediate reopening of Hormuz.

But even if you want to believe Trump’s earlier messaging was mere Art of the Deal, this pause looks like a massive walk-back from his earlier a) pledging regime change, and b) ruling out any deal absent Iran’s “unconditional surrender“, let alone c) his vow that Iran’s beleaguered people could seize power in “probably your only chance for generations.”

In the meantime, this war has cost ~15 US casualties, rare air defence and early-warning systems, key munition stockpiles, a dozen top removed generals, plus fraught ties with allies who a) weren’t looped in, b) got called free-loaders and cowards for then staying out, and c) (particularly in the Gulf) will now doubt US protection — not just because of all their energy assets now ablaze, but because this two-week ceasefire stipulates their energy exports now require “coordination” with the same regime that just hit them hard for a month — they didn’t need Iran’s exit permission pre-war.

And speaking of allies…

• Israel

We previously explored the big US-Israel goals gap here, but it’s now on full display: Bibi’s office has voiced careful support for Trump’s “decision to suspend strikes against Iran for two weeks“, but the Israeli PM is rejecting any notion that those Iran-backed Hezbollah forces along Israel’s border are part of the deal (aka #3 in the ceasefire terms above!).

To boot, Israel will see any deal that leaves Iran’s regime in place — backing proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis who’ve all called for Israel’s erasure — as an existential threat.

So that brings us back to our question above: who won this war? The truth is, with everyone still so far apart (nukes, missiles, proxies, Hormuz, and beyond), it’s hard to see this two-week stretch of talks ending with any plausible, longer-term deal at all.

So amid the negotiation tweets, leaks, and hot takes ahead, maybe keep an eye on something else we flagged last month: the USS Tripoli is already in-theatre, the equally-amphibious USS Boxer is days out, and the Bush carrier group (replacing the damaged Ford) is due to arrive before this two-week ceasefire expires.

And until those ships turn around, it’s a little bold to rule out the possibility this all just escalates again. In the meantime, a massive 15% single-day drop in oil prices (down to the low 90s) suggests markets sense this ceasefire might be for real.

Intrigue’s Take

Two things can be true at once: this brutal regime has no business ruling 90 million people let alone the world’s most critical energy artery; and yet maybe a full-frontal US-Israeli war not only wasn’t the answer, but might’ve even made things worse (eg Hormuz).

Still, observe the regime’s victory lap with caution: it now gets a ruined economy, a furious population, and a hostile neighbourhood, plus a freshly-demonstrated US-Israeli ability to hit its leaders and crown jewels at will. Don’t confuse survival with strength.

And for the US, a full war couldn’t deliver the knockout blow, but amid the possibility of some surprise move on Kharg or uranium, several factors will shape Trump’s thinking: he’ll want this costly and unpopular war in the rear-view before November’s mid-terms; but he’ll also be dissatisfied entering next month’s big Xi summit with Iran still claiming victory.

It all presents a tricky dilemma for the White House: another risky re-escalation, a messy draw, or perhaps a pivot in search of a quicker, easier win elsewhere: Cuba?

Sound even smarter:

• Qatar’s foreign minister is now calling on Iran to compensate it for war damages — expect others to follow.
• The transport minister of Oman (across the Hormuz) has flagged that, as an UNCLOS signatory, Oman treats the Strait as an international waterway free of the kinds of transit fees Iran has proposed. Note those charging transit fees (Egypt, Panama) are usually managing artificial canals within their own territory.
• India’s embassy in Tehran just urged its citizens to leave as soon as possible, presumably seizing the opportunity of a ceasefire before any hostilities resume.