Why European leaders are having a bad time

October is the spookiest month up north, as your nights gets darker, your lattes get more pumpkin-spiced, you have to think up a clever-but-not-cringe Halloween costume, and political campaign signs start sprouting on every lawn like judgmental jack-o’-lanterns.

But this October has been particularly spooky for European leaders.

Here’s why, helpfully themed with some classic scary movies so you don’t tune out.

• 🇫🇷 Nightmare on L’Elm Street

Poor ol’ President Macron just can’t catch a break, whether it’s his first lady having to prove her gender in a US court, his latest prime minister somehow again becoming France’s shortest-lived (three weeks), and now the kicker: his erstwhile allies are starting to turn on him (Macron’s own longest-serving PM just joined calls for him to resign!).

This might be jarring for those used to seeing a confident Macron striding the world stage, but Truffaut himself couldn’t have directed a better scene to illustrate Macron’s isolation back home: he was filmed Monday wandering alone by the banks of the Seine.

What’s the problem? Lawmakers desperately need to pass a budget that puts France’s finances on a sustainable track — its borrowing costs are now higher than Italy’s, which is wild when you recall Italy’s post-war governments have typically only lasted a year!

But his gamble on snap elections to break the deadlock backfired last year, as exasperated voters abandoned the centre for angry populists with wildly different cures.

So none of Macron’s options are good: he can a) resign, b) try his sixth PM within two years, or c) call another snap election (likely benefiting the populists even further).

All we can say is… bonne chance.

• 🇪🇺 28 Directives Later

EU leader Ursula von der Leyen is facing another no-confidence vote tomorrow (Thursday), her second in three months. She’ll survive, but the growing frequency of this stunt hints at the deepening fragmentation in Europe’s parliament.

• Conservatives argue she’s failing on migration and trade, and
• Left-leaning groups say she’s weak on Gaza and the environment.

But unlike Macron, the EU’s centrists still control a majority, and they have her back. 

• 🇮🇹 The Tuscany Chainsaw Massacre

Giorgia Meloni seemed to have cracked the code for stabilising Italy’s politics after storming to power as a populist, governing as more of a pragmatist, then holding her coalition together by sheer force of personal popularity.

But her approval has dipped as she now faces tests, both…

• At home: pro-Palestinian general strikes and the aid flotilla (~50 Italians onboard) have dominated headlines, pushing Meloni to dial up her criticism of Israel, while…
• Abroad: her friend and ally (Trump’s America) is threatening to hit 13 Italian companies with crippling tariffs on pasta, citing dumping claims.

Meloni’s marathon honeymoon might be over. Speaking of which…

• 🇩🇪 Schnell-boy

It’s unclear if Friedrich Merz’s honeymoon ever really got started, and this week gave us another reminder why: his coalition is squabbling again after his centre-right economy minister pushed back on the EU’s EV goals, irking his centre-left environment minister.

Merz will have to burn capital calling his house to order again. Until the next crisis, that is.

Intrigue’s Take

The edges thrive when the centre stumbles. And polls across parts of Europe suggest many are fed-up with the centre, whether it’s on immigration, the economy, or beyond.

But are the populists ready? You might get lucky and end up with a Meloni who (love her or not) has at least stabilised things enough for lawmakers to try tackling Italy’s problems.

But France’s outgoing PM said something interesting in his parting remarks: “I was ready to compromise, but every party wanted every other party to adopt its entire platform”. It hints at a level of polarisation that risks hurting everyone.

Sound even smarter:

• Shout-out to the UK’s Keir Starmer, whose own grim October has included a terrorist attack, more economic malaise, bad polling, and now a security scandal (prosecutors dropped a trial of two British nationals accused of spying for China).