Why Japan’s PMs keep quitting

Japan’s 102nd prime minister (Shigeru Ishiba) announced his resignation Sunday night, joining a long and growing list of Tokyo’s short-lived leaders.

So let’s take a quick look at why he quit, and why it matters.

First, why’d Ishiba quit? Three reasons.

1. His position was untenable following historic parliamentary losses, an internal party report into why, and senior party resignations. Ishiba’s allies then urged him to step down to avoid a divisive party vote scheduled for today (Monday). Why?
2. Folks in Japan are unhappy for familiar reasons, ranging from economic stagnation and a doubling in rice prices, to a long-running finance scandal plaguing Ishiba’s party. But why’d he resign now?
3. Amid all the internal pressure above, Ishiba’s Thursday trade deal with President Trump (settling US tariffs at 15%) was a milestone of sorts, that gave the famously-stubborn Japanese leader an honourable exit: mission accomplished.

Then second… does this palace intrigue really matter? Yes, for three reasons:

1. It furthers the leadership vacuum in the world’s ~fifth-largest economy, driving even more uncertainty for the rest of us, including…
2. Economically, we’ve seen a sell-off in Japan’s yen and bonds, pushing yields to record highs as investors play wait-and-see. Why? A front-runner replacement like Takaichi, for example, has been calling for more government spending and lower rates. She (yes, possibly Japan’s first female PM) also has spicy views on…
3. Strategically, there’s division around how Japan should play its cards. The outgoing Ishiba, for example, copped flak for being soft on China, whereas Takaichi is hawkish on China, North Korea, and beyond. Other contenders like Koizumi Jr (son of a popular PM) will irk China and Korea because of his war shrine visits. It all complicates any US efforts at a united front in countering China.

And while Japan figures itself out, its seat stays relatively silent at key forums like the G20, APEC, and the Quad, while its traditional stabilising role in the region goes into drift.

So what next? Ishiba technically stays as PM until his party picks a successor, most likely in early October. But even then, there are doubts they can cobble together a majority.

And either way, there’s a solid chance any new leader will want to just roll the dice via another election rather than limp along in a minority government.

But then… it’s hard to see Japan’s tired electorate rewarding this establishment ever again.

Intrigue’s Take

One reason we’re briefing you on Japan’s politics is because it’s arguably a preview (if not yet a microcosm) of almost everywhere else:

• First, governments are struggling to deliver on voter expectations around economic vulnerability, regional instability, and political integrity, meaning…
• Second, voters are punishing the establishment, making it even more difficult for its leaders to come up with workable solutions, adding even more momentum to…
• Third, populist alternatives are appealing to frustrated voters, promising simple solutions but sometimes with radical pivots on anything from trade to alliances.

It’s all a self-reinforcing process of domestic and cross-border instability, and the fact it can even claim a political stronghold like Japan’s ruling LDP — despite (if not because of) running Tokyo for most of the post-war era — suggests no political stronghold is safe. 

Sound smarter:

• Ishiba is due to mark his first year in office on October 1st.