Why the world is yelling about elections in Romania

We’ve long pondered when to write about Romania — when the unheard-of Călin Georgescu won the first round election in November? When a court then annulled his win over alleged Russian TikTok interference in December? Or when US VP JD ‘triple acronym’ Vance used the whole ordeal to dunk on Romania’s democracy in February?

But now we’re somehow in March, and a court is due today (Tuesday) to issue a final ruling on whether Georgescu can run in May’s re-scheduled elections. So Intriguers, our time has arrived.

First, care to stalk Georgescu’s LinkedIn profile with us?

He’s humbled and honoured to have done a PhD in soil sciences, stints in the US and UK, various gigs within Romania’s government, and even a UN special rapporteur role on human rights and hazardous wastes.

But then, he launched his long-shot 2024 presidential bid and… nobody cared, until a sudden late surge of buzz on TikTok helped him win November’s first round with 23%.

Second, the blowtorch of public scrutiny then really hit, focussing less on his profile, and more on his platform: classic populist-right fare, with a sprinkling of doubt about the statehood of neighbouring Ukraine, plus a jus of praise for Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

That blowtorch then shifted to Georgescu’s signed declaration claiming he was somehow the sole candidate who had zero campaign funding.

Third, Romanian spooks then declassified intelligence (🇷🇴) alleging an unnamed state (Russia) had used 800 TikTok accounts to undermine the election by pumping narratives in Georgescu’s favour. So a court annulled his win in December, and more probes followed, including into why one of his bodyguards — who visited Moscow last year — had $2M in cash stashed at his pad.

But by March, all this attention — plus his pivot to become a martyr standing up against an unpopular establishment — helped Georgescu lead in opinion polls until Sunday’s electoral authority banned him from running again, arguing he had “violated the very obligation to defend democracy“.

So what now? Today’s court ruling seems unlikely to land in Georgescu’s favour. But that doesn’t mean this is the end of the road, with speculation swirling he’ll quickly endorse one of the various like-minded nationalist candidates now gunning for their shot.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

While you ponder whether Romania’s authorities are defending democracy or destroying it, here are three things worth keeping in mind:

• First, this isn’t new: just in October, a court banned another Russia-friendly populist-right candidate (Diana Iovanovici Sosoaca), saying her statements systematically undermined Romania’s constitution and Euro-NATO alignment.
• Second, this isn’t happening in a vacuum: folks in Romania are frustrated at the scandal-plagued major parties and the quality of government services.
• And third, this isn’t just a Romania thing: electoral authorities everywhere are grappling with similar toxic doubts around the democratic implications of tech, campaign finance, and hybrid warfare.

That all makes for fertile ground for these kinds of constitutional crises. Then there’s the question of how democracies ought to respond, with another three thoughts:

• First, Georgescu seems to have benefited from an epic Streisand Effect here — the state’s complaint just shifted things from a debate on Georgescu’s niche platform, to a referendum on over-reach by an unpopular state.
• Second, this whole ordeal reflects a broader shift away from old-school fears of electoral fraud to today’s greyer areas of tech-enabled narrative-shaping, placing much more pressure on official credibilityin adjudicating calls.
• And third, while Russia denies any role, it’s the very existence of this debate right now (more than any particular side within it) that risks eroding public faith in democracy, to the benefit of hostile authoritarians everywhere.

Anyway, take some solace that Romania’s people feel just as conflicted as you do: 46% say the Georgescu ban is unjustified, while 41% describe it as necessary.  

Also worth noting:

• VP Vance earlier criticised the intelligence against Georgescu as “flimsy”.
• Prosecutors have already brought six criminal charges against Georgescu, including on leading a fascist group and lying about his campaign financing.