Three elections we’re watching

Remember 2024? Us neither. But we are reliably told it was the world’s biggest-ever electoral year, with a majority of eligible voters invited to the polls. It felt like the new world order was being decided. And in many ways, that’s exactly what happened.

But 2026 is shaping up to be another historic electoral year for folks in one of the world’s most dynamic yet overlooked regions, so let’s get you up to speed, starting with…

1. Myanmar 🇲🇲

The ✌️results✌️ are in! There are not enough sassy air-quotes in all the internet to tell you about this sham election in junta-run Myanmar, so we’ll just use that one pair above when we confirm that, omg, Myanmar’s military-backed party has won!

A few fun facts:

• Under Myanmar’s military-drafted constitution, guess who automatically gets a veto-proof 25% of all seats? That’s right, they’re for generals selected by the commander-in-chief himself! And speaking of…
• The constitution bars Myanmar’s top general and current dictator (Min Aung Hlaing) from being both president and military chief. So he’ll now abdicate his military role to become president, right? Haha no. He’s set up a new ‘consultative council’ that’ll preserve his full military control, just via a new desk plaque.

And what about Myanmar’s brutal civil war, you might ask? The junta only controls maybe a quarter of the country, covering perhaps 50-70% of the population. And in addition to banning or sidelining opposition parties, the generals only ran polls in a subset of those controlled communities they consider “stable” (ie, their own strongholds).

So… why bother? Five years since toppling the democratically-elected government in a coup, it’s the regime’s attempt at boosting its own legitimacy at home and abroad. For us, one of the highlights has been neighbouring China (famously a big fan of elections) endorsing the process as a path to peace and reconciliation — Beijing’s core interest is stabilising its border region and remaining tight with Myanmar’s mercurial generals.

2. Thailand 🇹🇭

Across another Myanmar border we’ve got Thailand’s snap general election this Sunday, and it’s intriguing for so many reasons.

First, it’s Thailand’s first full election under this constitution without a military-appointed senate playing a decisive role in who ends up prime minister!

The result might be a familiar scene: a power struggle between a royal-military establishment and reformists gunning for change. And that leads us to…

Second, there’s a cast of characters not holding back. For example…

The ruling incumbent (Anutin), a tycoon running Thailand’s third-largest party, has long tried to position himself as the ‘middleman’ solution to gridlock: acceptable to both…

• the establishment (he’s been a nationalist in the Cambodia border clashes), and
• the reformists (he decriminalised cannabis as health minister!).

So he’s trying to rally votes with spicy lines like this: “If Thai people want a government chosen by Cambodia, then go ahead and vote for those two parties.” 🌶️🌶️🌶️

With this one line, he was dunking on both a) opposition reformists like 38-year-old front-runner Natthaphong, whose party lineage crushed the last elections but was blocked from power, and b) populists like Thailand’s powerful Shinawatra family, whose patriarch, sister, and daughter have now all been ousted from the top job by the establishment.

And third, voters are also casting their ballot in a referendum! It’s asking if voters want to draft a new constitution, but it’s being seen as a proxy vote on the military’s role in Thai politics. 🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️

And now let’s cross back over yet another of Myanmar’s restive borders to visit…

3. Bangladesh 🇧🇩

The rebel rousers. The OG Gen Z protestors. Where else did student protests get so big, the long-time strongwoman leader (Sheikh Hasina) had to flee to India in a chopper!

Anyway, post-Sheikh Bangladesh is finally holding elections next week (Thurs 12th), 18 months after Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus stepped in as interim leader.

And with Sheikh’s party banned, it’s a two-horse race between…

• A nationalist-conservative party led by Tarique Rahman (an ex-PM’s son), and
• An Islamist party at the head of an 11-party coalition (including the students).

Assuming (per the polls) the nationalists win, they’re pledging anti-corruption and reconciliation. As for Bangladesh’s role in the world? That’s not been a campaign issue, but the nationalists want an “economy-based” stance, which basically means a classic strategy to hedge everyone (India, China, US, Pakistan) to Bangladesh’s advantage.

In the meantime, a handful of local embassies (US, UK, Canada) are warning of the risks of extremist violence around election day. 

We’re barely scratching a single region’s surface here: cross yet another of Myanmar’s borders and you’ll enter tiny Laos, which is scheduled for elections on February 22nd — though as a one-party state, the outcome ain’t in doubt. Ditto in nearby Vietnam, where there are one-party elections next month, though the real election happened last month, when the communist party consolidated Tô Lâm’s grip on power.

Intrigue’s Take

Fascinating neighbourhood, right? Looking out across a single nation’s borders, you’ll see politics dominated by generals, communists, royals, and beyond.

But what’s the bigger picture? One is the way these establishments keep trying to anchor democratic transitions by entrenching their own veto power — think Myanmar’s generals locking in that 25% seat guarantee, or Thailand’s military quietly shaping the senate — only to arguably just plant the seeds for more volatility down the line, particularly amid such young and increasingly active electorates.

The second is actually critical minerals, because China relies on restive Myanmar for more than half its supply of niche heavy rare earth elements like dysprosium and terbium, essential for EVs and wind turbines. Ditto, the US just signed a critical minerals deal with Thailand in October, aiming to leverage the country’s quiet processing strengths as a China-alternative node in Western supply chains for energy and defence tech.

A third is that eventually, politics hits the economy. Thailand is now on track to record ASEAN’s slowest growth (ex-Myanmar), but Bangladesh is another example — it’s due to graduate from ‘least developed country’ status this November, but instead of preparing for the loss of duty-free perks that underpin its textiles sector (80% of exports!), it’s been paralysed by political intrigue.

Sound even smarter:

• Japanese voters also head to the polls this Sunday in an election almost certain to consolidate PM Sanae Takaichi’s position.
• Nepal will then hold its first general election next month after huge Gen Z protests rocked the country last year.