24 days after that debate, while recovering from Covid at his Delaware beach house, Joe Biden announced Sunday afternoon local time that he’s withdrawing his 2024 candidacy to “focus solely on fulfilling” his duties as president.
He then endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris, who in turn declared her intention to “earn and win” the Democratic Party’s nomination.
And yet again, it’s left the ~175 embassies in DC scrambling to explain back home what’s happening in the US, and what it means for the world.
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But like we said last week, you don’t need military-grade encryption-busting tools to know the four main things they’re now cabling back to their capitals.
First, they’ll look at what this means in both a procedural and a political sense. Procedurally, Biden’s party delegates will now be ‘released’ to back another candidate, opening up a few possibilities:
- There’s been talk of an early ‘virtual’ roll-call if consensus locks around Harris, leaving next month’s party convention in Chicago to project unity.
- But some heavyweights (like Barack Obama) have withheld endorsement, and Harris could end up duking it out at an ‘open convention‘ if a rival emerges. It’d be epic TV, though the last such season (1968) was a mess and the party lost the election.
Politically, meanwhile, initial fundraising, endorsements, and some polling all suggest Biden’s withdrawal now energises his party, and drives a more competitive race focused on issues rather than infirmities.
Second, embassies will assure their governments that they’re well prepared for what’s next: any ambassador worth their Embassy Row residence should already have access to Harris, particularly via her inner circle (like Phil Gordon).
And yes, you can bet ambassadors in DC have been paying ‘courtesy calls’ on any other possible Harris rival, veep, or cabinet pick: Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, or Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.
Third, as we noted last week, DC embassies will process this latest plot twist with a dash of wish-casting when it comes to the state of the US:
- US rivals will see it as further evidence of the chaos and even opacity at the heart of US power, but
- Allies will see it as evidence of continued US resilience and renewal.
Fourth and finally, embassies in DC will also be processing what all this means for their home governments and the world at large.
- Biden has (with a couple of exceptions) been popular among US allies, who’ll now cable what they can’t tweet: while they can work with any US president, a Harris presidency would bring continuity of Biden’s vision for a preserved global US role built on strong alliances.
- As for US rivals? While they tisk at the chaos, they’ll be unsettled by the unpredictability, and nervous at the contrast between a Western leader ceding power while Presidents Xi and Putin (both 71) dig in. That might explain why China’s censors have blocked some analysis of Biden’s withdrawal, while the Kremlin has simply changed the topic.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Democracy can be such a tightrope, right?
- Trump wanted to beat Biden, not push him out of the race first
- Party heavyweights publicly backed Biden, though often seemingly to create space for him to exit (at their private urging), and
- Party voices now want unity around Harris, though many also crave the added legitimacy that’d come from a more contested process.
Likewise, foreign embassies are treading the tightrope of wanting to pre-empt where all this is headed, and maintain access no matter what the outcome, without being seen to interfere in that outcome.
As for next steps, you can bet MSNBC’s Morning Joe will get a serious ratings bump this morning (Monday). That’s because Andy Beshear, the popular governor of Kentucky and one of the above rumoured VPs for Harris (or a contender in his own right), dropped an intriguing tweet last night announcing his 8.10am appearance to “talk about the path forward”.
There’ll also be press packs chasing every move by Joe Manchin, the senator from West Virginia who’s reportedly now mulling his own possible candidacy.
So… you thought the last three weeks were eventful? Wait ‘til you see the next 15 weeks before election day.
Also worth noting:
- Kamala Harris had reportedly secured the backing of a quarter of all Democratic Party delegates by midnight, while the party raised ~$50M in seven hours, its biggest haul since at least 2020.
- Responding to Biden’s announcement, former president Trump has posted, “if [Biden] can’t run for office, he can’t run our country” (a call echoed by others in Trump’s party).
- Keen to dive deeper into the US elections, what they mean for the world, and vice versa? Our very own weekly Election Intrigue is free to subscribe!
