What’s next for TikTok?

Ultra-popular short-video platform TikTok went offline for its 170 million users on Saturday night, only to then semi-reappear around noon yesterday (Sunday).

Of course, teetering on the edge of oblivion just inspired more memorable TikTok moments, including folks recreating this amusing Family Guy scene where Peter uses his final breath to make a big deathbed confession: “I did not care for The Godfather“. Other TikTokers spent the time jokingly farewelling China’s spies, which brings us to why:

Trump 1.0 first moved to ban the app on national security grounds in 2020, before a notably bipartisan Congress passed last year’s law forcing TikTok to cut its China ties or face a US ban — the Supreme Court then unanimously upheld that law on Friday, and it entered force yesterday (Sunday).

Why the ban? Like any platform, TikTok has the power to a) hoover up vast amounts of US data, and b) absolutely megaphone (or mute) any content reaching US citizens.

The US law has no problem with hoovers or megaphones. Nor does it have any problem with Ocean Spray-skateboard-karaoke videos or any other free expression on TikTok.

Rather, the law’s issue is with such a powerful hoover and megaphone like TikTok being answerable to an authoritarian US rival like China (where TikTok’s parent company is based). And the Supreme Court’s unanimous ruling found that, rather than meaningfully dispute those US concerns, TikTok instead argued it was merely “unlikely” China would “compel TikTok to turn over user data for intelligence-gathering purposes”.

And yet, you don’t need a top secret security clearance to figure out why the US might still have national security concerns, whether in practice or law. On the legal front, there’s:

• China’s 2017 law requiring “any organisation” to cooperate with its spooks
• China’s veto (already invoked) over the foreign sale of TikTok’s algorithm, and
• China’s purchase of a ‘golden share‘ in TikTok’s parent company, enabling it to parachute an official (Wu Shugang) onto the board of a China-based subsidiary.

So that’s a fair bit of China-based legal influence over TikTok. But is there any evidence this has actually shaped the way TikTok operates in practice? Yes there is:

• In 2022, workers at its parent company were caught surveilling U.S. journalists
• Both leaks and research suggest TikTok has suppressed topics like Tibet, and
• Last year the app openly encouraged its 170 million US users to lobby Congress in its defence (confirming plenty of US lawmaker fears in the process).

So there you have it: a unanimous Supreme Court decision backing an overwhelmingly bipartisan act of Congress. End of story, right? Hah, no.

While Biden signed this into law, it’s now up to Trump 2.0 to implement it. And Trump has been on a real journey, from authoring his own 2020 attempted ban, to authoring this weekend’s tweet now vowing to save the app. Why? Possible factors include:

• His chat with Jeff Yass (great name btw), the US megadonor and TikTok investor
• Last month’s meeting with TikTok’s CEO, who’ll be at today’s inauguration
• Trump’s stated fondness for TikTok given its role in his re-election, and
• His broader interest in a deal that saves the popular app while guarding US interests.

So he’s vowing to sign today an executive order delaying TikTok’s removal by 90 days so a solution can be figured out, which brings us to the current grey area: it’s unclear if Trump even has that authority now that the law has already entered force.

But legalities aside, there’s then the question of what could even happen in 90 days:

• Trump himself has flagged some kind of 50/50 joint venture to own TikTok
• His incoming national security advisor (Waltz) has floated unspecified firewalls
• There’s an idea of transferring TikTok’s US users to some new, secure app, and
• Possible buyers include a billionaire-backed ‘People’s Bid‘, a US startup named Perplexity, plus rumours that Elon Musk is in the mix too (though still no word on whether China would even sell).

Anyway, whatever happens next, you can bet it’ll be rich in litigation and intrigue, while the clock just keeps on ticking, if it hasn’t already now ticked all the way down to zero.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

TikTok really has become a valuable source of community, connection, cash, and even news for millions of Americans. But throw real national security concerns in the mix, and it’s precisely the app’s same value that fuels DC’s sense of vulnerability. It’s also partly why there’s been so much disconnect between the app’s defenders and critics.

Meanwhile, there’s no shortage of suitors willing to fork over untold billions to buy a hit like TikTok. But instead, TikTok’s owners have effectively played chicken, betting the app would be rescued by either a) the US courts, or b) the next US president. Door A is now closed, so we’re now left waking up on inauguration day staring directly into door B, with TikTok duly laying on the flattery for the returning president.

But the very fact TikTok’s owners would rather lose the entire US market than sell its US operations for tens of billions of dollars will only confirm the suspicions among many US lawmakers and beyond, that TikTok isn’t acting like a normal company.

Also worth noting:

• China has described the US approach to TikTok as “economic bullying” and “plundering”, in a nod to Beijing’s claims that the US is just trying to protect US social media giants like Meta from China’s competition.
• Don’t miss our candid chat on China tomorrow (Tuesday) with Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi, online from 10am ET. Register here!