🌍 Orders to Leave

IN TODAY’S EDITION

Hi Intriguer. Is it just me, or is it impossible to ponder the delicate topic of diplomatic immunity without getting immediate flashbacks from Lethal Weapon 2? You know the one, with that consul-general in Los Angeles somehow smuggling a few hundred million dollars of coke, and when anyone asks what’s up, he just growls “dip-loh-matic imuuunity” in that memorable South African accent.

In practice, diplomatic immunity is much more mundane. I promise. It’s mostly about a few countries not paying their parking fines, or the Russian ambassador importing industrial quantities of tax-free vodka ‘for personal use’, then offloading it on the local black market because that new dacha back home isn’t going to pay for itself.

Anyway, today’s story gets us as close to real-world Lethal Weapon 2 vibes as you’ll ever see, with Canada alleging (and India denying) that senior Indian diplomats were involved in some serious criminal activity on Canadian soil.

PS – ¿Hablas español? ¡Check out our weekly edition in Spanish!

THE HEADLINES

US tells Israel to boost aid to Gaza or face military cuts.
In a letter sent Sunday, US Secretary of State Blinken and Secretary of Defense Austin have called on Israel to increase aid into and across Gaza (particularly the north) within 30 days, or risk cuts to US military assistance. The letter amounts to the strongest written warning from the US to its ally since the Hamas attacks last year.

ASML shares plunge on fears of weak chip demand.
The shares of Dutch advanced chip-machine maker ASML dropped by 16% yesterday (Tuesday) after it accidentally published its Q3 results a day early. Net bookings for September were well below expectations, though net sales remained high. “It now appears the recovery is more gradual than previously expected”, CEO Christophe Fouquet wrote. ASML is currently grappling with US and Dutch limits on tech exports to China.

US, Japan, and Korea unveil taskforce to monitor North Korea. 
The new joint team will monitor the enforcement of UN sanctions against North Korea, after Russia rejected (and China abstained on) the renewal of a related panel of experts. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky has now re-upped reports about North Korean troops being sent to the frontline to help Russia’s invasion.

Air India flight lands in Singapore after bomb threat. 
Singapore has mobilised two fighter jets to escort an Air India flight to safety after the airline received an email stating there was a bomb on board. This is the third such bomb threat made against the company in recent days.

TOP STORY

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

It’s worth a quick look at the different ways this is now playing out in each country.

As India has become more confident, it’s also become more forthright in alleging Canada is harbouring Sikh terrorists, all while India’s spooks (‘RAW’) have shifted from defence to offence, and from a regional to a global remit. And that’s all dovetailed with Modi’s own political fortunes, burnishing his image as a Hindu strongman. But with Indian voters clipping his wings back in June, and Western partners now backing Canada’s claims, the costs for Modi are rising.

Meanwhile, outlets in Canada have (like India above) suggested there’s political mileage for Trudeau here given the size of the Sikh community (800,000 people). But any political interests have by now morphed into something much bigger: the notion that a foreign power might’ve been assassinating Canadian citizens on Canadian soil.

And then there’s the US, which is now prosecuting an Indian national over an eerily similar assassination attempt against a Sikh leader in New York last year. And that begs the question: why has President Biden taken a lower profile approach in response? Well, partly because he can — quiet US pressure still seems to have ousted one top Indian spy and led to the arrest of another. But also, Biden probably senses he must move cautiously — the US and India need one another as a counterweight to China.

Still, with India now allegedly joining the ranks of Russia and the Saudis in assassinating rivals on the streets of major cities abroad, there’ll be questions around the extent to which the West might’ve misjudged its new partner.

Also worth noting:

• Calls for an independent Khalistan have lost momentum inside India lately, with many of the movement’s most vocal proponents now living abroad.

• At the movement’s peak in the 1980s, a Sikh extremist blew up an Air India flight from Canada to India via Britain, killing all 329 people on board. The prime minister of India was also assassinated by two Sikh members of her security detail after an Indian raid on the holiest Sikh temple.

NEW SPEAKER ADDED!

Join us in Washington, DC for “Securing Tomorrow: The Future of Cyber Threats and Global Defense” on Thursday, October 24 at 6 PM EDT.

In an increasingly interconnected world, the stakes in cybersecurity have never been higher. We’re convening top minds to explore the cutting-edge of cyber defense, covering the escalating global cybercrime industry, the shadowy realm of industrial and state-sponsored attacks, and the critical need for international cooperation.

Confirmed speakers include:

• Liesyl Franz – Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Cyberspace Security, Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy, U.S. Department of State

• Dr. Kathleen Fisher – Director, Information Innovation Office, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) 

• Brandon Wales – Vice President of Cybersecurity Strategy, SentinelOne and Former Executive Director at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA)

MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

1. 🇨🇳 China: Russia’s defence chief (Belousov) has paid a visit to Beijing for “substantive” talks with China’s top defence official (Zhang). While Russia’s read-out boldly claims the two “have a common understanding of what needs to be done in the current situation”, China’s read-out sticks to more standard lines, and flags joint celebrations around next year’s 80th anniversary of WWII’s end.

2. 🇸🇪 Sweden: Stockholm has announced it’ll boost Sweden’s armed forces by 27,000 troops to 115,000 by 2030. In explaining the extra $16B in defence spending over the next five years, the defence minister said “we must be able to respond more strongly and effectively to the changes taking place in our surrounding world, above all Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine“.

3. 🇲🇲 Myanmar: The head of the military junta running Myanmar has called on the country’s ethnic militias to join peace talks to end the brutal civil war triggered by his regime’s 2021 coup. It’s the second such invitation in the space of a month, and comes as junta forces have now lost control of around half the country. 

4. 🇻🇪 Venezuela: The Financial Times is reporting that the Maduro regime has now cancelled the passports of at least 40 journalists and activists since Maduro’s fraudulent re-election in July. Authorities haven’t offered an explanation, but critics say it’s all part of Maduro’s efforts to crush dissent in the country.

5. 🇨🇩 DR Congo: The government has cancelled the auction of 27 sites earmarked for oil exploration, citing late bids, irregular offers, and a lack of competition. The sites, called oil blocks, were first put on the market in 2022, drawing criticism due to their location in the world’s second-biggest rainforest. 

EXTRA INTRIGUE

Here’s what people around the world have googled lately

• 🇩🇴 Dominicans searched for ‘temblor de tierra hoy’ (earthquake today) after a 4.7 quake hit near the capital Santo Domingo. 

• Car enthusiasts in 🇩🇿 Algeria googled ‘renault 4’ after the French automaker unveiled its new electric model, inspired by the classic Renault 4. 

• And folks in 🇵🇦 Panama looked up ‘Tren de Aragua’ after Panama’s leader confirmed the notorious Venezuelan gang has a presence in his country.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Turns out the 80s rockers Toto weren’t wrong when they said they could see the rains down in Africa.

Some stunning images have emerged out of Morocco, after the Sahara flooded for the first time in decades. Researchers say the unusual (and deadly) influx of water could change weather patterns in the region for months or even years to come, as the elevated moisture levels in the air will likely alter the delicate balance of the desert weather. 

DAILY POLL

Yesterday’s poll: What’s your favourite TV show or movie about diplomats?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 1️⃣ The Diplomat (27%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 2️⃣ The Peacemaker (4%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 3️⃣ The Interpreter (5%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 4️⃣ Hammarskjöld (3%)

🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 5️⃣ Argo (22%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 6️⃣ In the Loop (6%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 7️⃣ Escape from Mogadishu (2%)

🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️ 8️⃣ Madam Secretary (24%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 9️⃣ Long Shot (2%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (6%)

Your two cents:

• 6️⃣ C.L: “In the Loop will never not be funny. “‘Climbing the mountain of conflict’? You sounded like a Nazi Julie Andrews!” Honestly, Malcolm Tucker for UN Chief. Let’s start the campaign.”

• 5️⃣ J.S: “The early years of my career overlapped with one of the hostages in Argo which I thought was so cool. He even got one of my colleagues tickets to the premiere at TIFF!”

• ✍️ P.P.B: “Ambassadors! A very realistic hot take of the British diplomatic service in the mid-2000s. They accurately portray why VVIP visits are important for diplomacy – but traumatizing for embassy staff!”