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IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Wild elections in Sri Lanka |
2️⃣ North Korea tests a ‘super-large’ warhead |
3️⃣ Map of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Years ago I did a work trip to Sri Lanka and within hours of landing, my boss got wiped by a virus, leaving me to fly solo on the rest of the mission. It was like an extremely mundane version of Top Gun.
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So I thought to myself, JD? This is your time to shine buddy. Yes, I did the work stuff. But by night? Oh lordy, those sweet sweet Colombo nights. Let me paint you a picture:
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There’s a spot that’s co-owned by two cricket stars. It’s located in Colombo’s old Dutch Hospital. Its menu is called ‘the constitution’. And each dish is deemed an ‘amendment’. The spot’s name, dear Intriguer? Ministry of Crab. It sells crab. Nothin’ but crab. And I like to think my enthusiastic visits, three nights in a row mind you, might’ve played some part in the ‘Ministry’ going on to open restaurants across Asia.
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Anyway, it’s with a rumbling gut and a racing mind – thanks to fond memories of the remarkable Republic of Sri Lanka – that we head back there today for a primer on the country’s ultra-intriguing elections taking place this very weekend.
THE HEADLINES
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Israel launches airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon.
Israel says its military has struck at least another 100 Hezbollah rocket launchers, just days after Mossad’s mass synchronised device explosions targeted the Lebanon-based listed terrorist organisation. Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has accused Israel of “crossing all of the red lines”, while US President Joe Biden has called for a ceasefire.
Brazil fines X (née Twitter).
Brazil’s supreme court has imposed a daily $920k fine now that the social media platform has apparently become available to some Brazilian users again, despite a court-ordered ban. The court alleges X has evaded the ban purposefully, while the social media company says it’s inadvertent. The ban relates to allegations X has breached Brazilian law, including by failing to remove harmful content.
Bank of Japan keeps rates steady.
As we foreshadowed on Tuesday, Japan’s central bank has opted to keep interest rates unchanged, but says domestic consumption is on a “moderate increasing trend”. This might set the stage for further rate rises down the line, though Governor Ueda has signalled he’s in no rush.
Mali junta hiding true extent of jihadist attacks.
A major attack on the capital by an al Qaeda-linked group earlier this week might’ve killed 100 or more people, significantly more than Mali’s ruling junta has let on. It’s all fuelling doubts about the junta’s ability to deal with the country’s jihadist insurgencies.
China to resume imports of Japanese seafood.
China’s ban will now be lifted “gradually”, a year after it cut Japanese seafood imports in response to Tokyo’s release of treated waste water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant (in a move deemed safe by the UN’s nuclear watchdog). Before the ban, China was Japan’s biggest seafood customer.
TOP STORY
Sri Lankans vote, two years after toppling government
A rally in Colombo, Sri Lanka. Credit: AP News, Eranga Jayawardena
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Sri Lankans head to the polls tomorrow (Saturday), capping off a high-stakes telenovela that’s truly worthy of your attention, dear Intriguer.
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But first, dust off your copy of Top Gun: Maverick and drop the needle on some Adele, because we’re rewinding all the way back to 2022.
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That’s the year Sri Lanka’s economy broke. Saddled with debt and battered by Covid, the country ran out of foreign reserves. As a result:
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Inflation hit 70%
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Tariffs surged an Uber-worthy 65%
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Food and fuel imports stopped
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The shortages then triggered mass protests
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And the then president (Gotabaya Rajapaksa) fled to Singapore.
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And to be clear, Rajapaksa is not any ol’ name. It’s the political dynasty that’s dominated Sri Lanka for decades. So to see protestors storming Rajapaksa compounds and sending family members into hiding? A big deal.
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But the Rajapaksa family still had clout in parliament, giving them a say over who would step in to complete Gotabaya’s term. So… enter Ranil Wickremesinghe, the record six-time former prime minister. He’s been in power ever since (2022) and by many accounts he’s been a success:
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Inflation is now down to a cool 0.5%
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The rupee has stabilised
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The economy is now projected to grow, and
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Hours ago, he announced a $12.5B restructure of Sri Lanka’s foreign debt (critics have objected to the convenient, pre-election timing).
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But life is still tough for millions of Sri Lankans grappling with a brutal cost of living crisis, meaning folks are very open to some of the 38 alternatives on offer at the ballot box tomorrow. We won’t walk you through all 38 (can you imagine), but here are four:
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First, there’s the incumbent Wickremesinghe above, who touts his two-year track record, but folks are still unhappy and he’s seen as part of the ‘old guard’.
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Then there’s Dissanayake, who heads up the main left-leaning coalition. He’s seen as closer to China than India and played a key role in ousting Rajapaksa, but his party has an ugly past (including bloody Marxist insurrections in the 1980s) – and yet who knows, maybe Sri Lanka’s many younger voters won’t mind.
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Coming through the middle is Premadasa, who’s managed to garner support across Sri Lanka’s various ethnic and religious minorities with his call for unity – it’s particularly notable because his father (a former president) was actually assassinated by a Tamil suicide bomber back in the 1990s.
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And then of course, it wouldn’t be a proper Sri Lankan election if there wasn’t yet another Rajapaksa in the mix, so this time it’s 38-year-old Namal’s turn – he’s the son of one former president, and the nephew of the other who fled to Singapore. Nobody seems to think he’ll win, but he’s cementing himself as the dynasty’s air.
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So who’s going to win?
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Even the astrologers who’d ordinarily be sharing their predictions in Sri Lankan media are staying pretty silent this time around, reflecting not only the uncertainty across 38 candidates, but maybe also the sheer stakes for Sri Lanka’s 22 million people.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
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Okay, cool story Hansel, but why does Sri Lanka really matter?
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Well, a big part of the answer revolves around its location, right in the middle of the Indian Ocean. World powers have been vying for control of that ocean for centuries. And competition has been heating up lately.
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One example is the strategically located port of Hambantota, which China financed and now semi-controls via a state-owned conglomerate which got a 99 year lease back in 2017, sparking accusations (which China denies) of ‘debt trap diplomacy’.
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The second example is in the growing frequency of port visits by some of China’s spy ships like the Shi Yan 6, Xiang Yang Hong 3, and Yuan Wang 5. Growing objections from neighbouring India, the US, and beyond nudged Sri Lanka to issue a one-year pause on these ‘foreign research vessel’ visits in January.
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In both examples, the key decisions came from the very top, which is one reason why these elections matter so much. It’s also why India, for example, hosted Dissanayake (one of the contenders above) for a red carpet visit in February. Nobody’s taking any chances.
A MESSAGE FROM ELECTION INTRIGUE
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Another week, another great edition of Election Intrigue. This week, Intrigue co-founder John Fowler and Washington editor Kristen Talman will cover:
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US diplomats face a 22% pay cut, so we’ve buzzed around Washington to figure out what Congressional and State Department leaders are doing ahead of the September 30th deadline.
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Overseas voters and US diplomatic missions are gearing up to ship ballots stateside, but some ballots might not arrive on time as key swing states face legal challenges.
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Plus: Iran election interference, UAE state visits, and Biden’s trip to the UN’s Summit for the Future; all on the docket.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇰🇵 North Korea: Pyongyang has announced it’s tested a missile armed with a dummy “4.5 ton super-large conventional warhead”, landing it in the hermit state’s mountainous north (rather than offshore) in a likely show of confidence over its accuracy. Meanwhile, the US has imposed further sanctions on North Korea related both to its weapons program and its dealings with Russia.
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🇵🇹 Portugal: Lisbon has issued a ’state of calamity’ as more than 100 wildfires tear through Portugal’s north, leaving at least seven dead. Countries including France, Italy, Spain, and Morocco have responded to Portugal’s requests for help.
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🇵🇭 Philippines: According to Reuters, the US has no immediate plans to remove a mid-range missile system from the Philippines, despite protests from China. The Typhon system, which could be loaded with missiles capable of reaching targets in China, arrived in the Philippines for military exercises earlier this year.
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🇪🇨 Ecuador: President Daniel Noboa has announced he’ll seek constitutional changes to allow foreign military bases in Ecuador, arguing its international armed gangs need an international response. The US used to have a base in Manabí, but it closed after a former president changed Ecuador’s constitution in 2008 to ban foreign bases.
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🇮🇱 Israel: The UN General Assembly has voted to demand Israel end its “unlawful presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory” within 12 months. Based on an opinion by the International Court of Justice, around two-thirds of the UN’s 193 member countries backed the non-binding resolution, which Israel called “a distorted decision that is disconnected from reality”.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Instead of sharing our own recommendations, we thought we’d let a few historical figures suggest one of their favourite books instead
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Amelia Earheart: Black Beauty by Anna Sewell
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Nelson Mandela: The Grapes of Wrath by John Steinbeck
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Napoleon Bonaparte: The Odyssey by Homer
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Indira Gandhi: The life of the Bee by Maurice Maeterlinck
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Martin Luther King Jr: War and Peace by Leo Tolstoy
MAP OF THE DAY
Credits: The Economist.
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There’s a part of the UAE (Nahwa) that’s entirely surrounded by a part of Oman (Madha), which is itself then surrounded by the rest of the UAE. Geography is weird, man.
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Known as a ‘double enclave’, this particular geographic babushka doll emerged around the 1930s when the clan presiding over Madha decided to align with the Sultan of Oman, while their neighbours like Nahwa went with the Emiratis.
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The official boundaries were drawn in 1969 but, luckily for any commuters, there are no formal border crossings. Still, we’re gonna go ahead and assume folks in the area have already done the Homer Simpson international borders joke.
FRIDAY QUIZ
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Today (Friday) is World Cleanup Day, so let’s test your knowledge and/or cleanliness.
There are more microplastics in the ocean than there are estimated stars in our galaxy. |
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How big is the Great Pacific Garbage Patch? |
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Roughly how many countries have a full or partial ban on plastic bags? |
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✍️ Editor’s corner
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Thanks to Yves from Luxembourg for pointing out that the most widely-used adjective is ‘Luxembourgish’ rather than ‘Luxembourgian’! Take that to your next trivia night, folks.