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IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Is a top Hamas leader now dead? |
2️⃣ Why folks in Brazil are googling ‘Kat Torres’ |
3️⃣ Richest country in the world? |
Hi Intriguer. Syria’s autocrat Bashar al-Assad has long been a pariah, so I wasn’t expecting a NATO member (Turkey) to invite him for a visit.
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But I legit almost pulled a neck muscle when I saw Assad’s response to this exceedingly rare invitation: he placed conditions on his RSVP, saying he’ll only visit his estranged neighbour if they discuss his preferred topics.
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Sometimes leaders won’t accept – or won’t be seen to accept – the reality of their own bargaining position. And that’s on my mind today, as we explore the implications of reports that a top Hamas leader may now be dead.
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PS – Do you live in DC? Join us for a fun event exploring how internet culture shapes our world, at the Australian Embassy on July 24th! Register here.
THE HEADLINES
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Trump picks JD Vance as running mate.
As we foreshadowed, Trump has now announced his VP pick at the Republican National Convention, taking the stage for the first time since Saturday’s attempted assassination. Senator Vance is a young (39) Midwesterner with a military, Ivy League, and tech investing background, also known for his memoir ‘Hillbilly Elegy’. He’s previously stated the US should take a tougher line against China, redirecting resources from Ukraine. Meanwhile, a judge has dismissed a criminal case over Trump’s handling of classified documents (the prosecuting special counsel says he’ll appeal).
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Zelensky invites Russia to next peace summit.
The Ukrainian president has unveiled plans to hold a second peace summit in November, telling journalists “I think that representatives of Russia should be at the second summit”. Last month, Ukraine co-hosted 90+ countries at a peace conference in Switzerland, but Russia wasn’t on the list.
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Kagame wins fourth term as Rwandan president.
In a result that might make Kim Jong Un blush, electoral authorities say Paul Kagame has won over 99% of the vote in yesterday’s election. He’s popular for the way he’s rebuilt the country after its 1994 genocide, though he’s also faced criticism for his authoritarian streak. Back in 2015, he passed a constitutional amendment meaning he could potentially hold power until 2034.
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North Korean diplomat defects.
South Korea’s spy agency has announced that a senior North Korean diplomat based in Cuba defected to the South with his family late last year. Defections slowed when the North sealed its borders during Covid, but they surged again last year with many hailing from the North’s elite, hinting at growing discontent.
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Europe considers reopening embassies in Afghanistan.
Several European countries are debating whether (or when) to establish formal diplomatic ties with the Taliban, three years after the fall of Kabul. Italy has already conducted a reconnaissance mission, while Spain’s foreign minister has said, “as soon as there are minimum security conditions, we’ll send our ambassador back”.
TOP STORY
Mohammed Deif: dead or alive?
A rare photo of Hamas leaders Mohammad Deif (L) and his deputy Rafa Salameh (R). In the middle, scenes from the Israeli airstrike aftermath this weekend.
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You might’ve noticed an Israeli Defence Force (IDF) tweet on Saturday regarding an airstrike on a “compound” in southern Gaza, where it said “two senior Hamas terrorists and additional terrorists hid among civilians”.
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Sure enough, rumours then started swirling around who was inside, while Hamas claimed these reports were all a deflection to justify the deaths of 90+ people sheltering in the designated safe area outside. And now, The New York Times is reporting a second strike hit near emergency responders in the area.
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So here’s what we ✌️know✌️.
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What was this compound?
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It was a villa within a walled garden, along what Israel has designated as a safe zone in a coastal area of southern Gaza known as Al Mawasi.
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Who was inside?
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The villa appears to have belonged to Rafa Salameh, the head of the Hamas brigade in the area.
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But rather than hit the villa straight away, Israel surveilled it for weeks in the hopes Salameh might one day be joined by his elusive boss, Mohammed Deif.
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Who’s Mohammed Deif?
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He’s the head of the Hamas armed wing. Both the US and the EU have designated him a terrorist, and the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest in May (alongside other Hamas and Israeli leaders).
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A reclusive figure, he’s topped Israel’s most-wanted list since the 1990s, and one of the few times he’s spoken publicly was actually on the morning of October 7th, when he announced (via pre-recorded message) the Hamas attacks on Israel.
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He’s survived multiple Israeli assassination attempts, bolstering his reputation in the process. In fact, a common pro-Hamas chant even features his name. So…
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Was Deif inside?
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Deif and Salameh were friends – one of only two known photos of Deif’s face (above) actually shows the men relaxing together, so Israel hoped they might meet. And after weeks of surveillance, Israel got word on Friday that Deif was visiting Salameh’s compound. The IDF conducted the airstrike the next morning.
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As rumours swirled, Israeli and US officials gave mixed messages on whether Deif was killed, but Israeli outlets are now reporting that the unanimous assessment across Israel’s security agencies is that Deif is indeed dead.
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However, Hamas has issued two curious denials: one via an anonymous source to French media, and the other via a Hamas official living in Qatar. And to boot, the two Hamas denials actually conflict on some details: the anonymous one says ceasefire negotiations are now off, while the Qatar guy says they’re on.
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So… is Deif dead?
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We don’t know, but given Deif’s key role, both Israel and Hamas have strong incentives to be right. For Israel, Deif’s death would mean:
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The most senior Hamas casualty in Gaza yet
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Further isolation of the strip’s top Hamas chief (Yahya Sinwar)
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Evidence for Israel’s claims that it was pursuing military targets (given the high number of reported civilian casualties), and
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A step towards Netanyahu’s aim to end the war by defeating Hamas.
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Meanwhile, for Hamas, Deif’s death would mean:
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The embarrassing loss of its military leader
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The denting of Deif’s (and his group’s) claims to invincibility, and
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Confirmation he was hiding among civilians (something that’s already triggered criticism among rival Palestinian leaders in the West Bank).
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So that’s where things stand for now – we just don’t know. But the longer Hamas takes to prove Deif is still alive, the more likely Deif is actually now dead.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
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So what does all this mean for cease-fire talks? Long-time readers might recall that, given the opposing and existential aims of Israel and Hamas, we’ve long been sceptical this war can end until either a) Netanyahu is ousted, or b) Sinwar and Deif are killed or captured.
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So we’ve now potentially seen a shift towards option b, and that has both practical and political significance. Practically, Deif was apparently the contact point between the Hamas leadership in Gaza (Mr Sinwar) and its political leadership in Qatar. With that link gone, how do negotiations resume?
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Sinwar would potentially have to emerge from hiding to re-establish contact, but it’s hard to see that happening given rumours of a human source tipping Israel off to Deif on Friday.
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And that all has political impact. Sinwar and Deif are hardliners who’ve resisted past deals (returning hostages would mean ceding leverage). So with more hardliners potentially now either dead (like Deif) or isolated (like Sinwar), that could tip Hamas towards a deal Netanyahu is willing to accept.
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Also worth noting:
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China is set to host senior officials from rival Palestinian factions (Hamas in Gaza and Fatah in the West Bank) for a meeting to bridge gaps next week.
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Deif’s name is Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al-Masri, but he goes by ‘Deif’, which is Arabic for ‘guest’ – it’s a reference to his reputation for moving constantly to avoid surveillance.
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If Deif is dead, his most likely replacement is Mohamed Sinwar, the Gaza Hamas chief’s younger (and apparently less formidable) brother.
A MESSAGE FROM SEMAFOR
What do members of Congress, executives on Wall Street, and UN Ambassadors all have in common?
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They read Principals, a non-partisan, analytic, free political newsletter by Semafor. Each morning, Semafor Principals delivers distilled yet deeply insightful glimpses into the corridors of power in Washington and beyond.
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Want to know what the key takeaways from this week’s RNC will mean for the upcoming elections?
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Or how Democrats in Washington are navigating calls for Biden to withdraw from the race?
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Us too — it’s why we read Semafor Principals every morning. Join 100,000 other thought leaders who trust Principals.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇳🇵 Nepal: The leader of Nepal’s main communist party, Khadga Prasad Oli, has emerged as the country’s new prime minister after the collapse of the previous coalition. Oli, now in his third stint as PM, has tended to prioritise deeper ties with China, much to India’s displeasure.
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🇷🇺 Russia: Russia will begin manufacturing knock-off spare parts for its Boeing and Airbus aircraft, according to local sources. The move, considered both illegal and unsafe, is an answer to stringent Western sanctions designed to cut off Russia’s military industrial base.
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🇹🇴 Tonga: More than 1% of local residents have signed a petition calling on the government to allow Elon Musk’s Starlink to offer internet services, after an earthquake last month left a third of the island nation offline. The government deactivated Starlink in the country last week, arguing the company didn’t have the necessary licence to operate.
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🇵🇪 Peru: Former president Alberto Fujimori, who was released from prison on compassionate grounds last year while serving a 25-year sentence for human rights abuses, apparently wants to run for president again in 2026. His daughter dropped the news on Twitter/X, though it’s unclear if her father (85) is barred due to his convictions.
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🇸🇴 Somalia: At least five people were killed and twenty wounded after a car bomb exploded outside a packed cafe where Mogadishu residents were watching the Euros football final over the weekend. No group has claimed responsibility for the bombing, though Islamist movement al-Shabab has carried out similar attacks in the past.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what people around the world googled yesterday
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🇧🇷 Brazilians searched for ‘Kat Torres’, a local wellness influencer sentenced to eight years in prison on human trafficking charges.
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Folks in the 🇵🇭 Philippines googled ‘Titanic’ after a US-based company with the salvage rights to the infamous wreckage announced its first expedition to the site since 2010.
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And the 🇳🇱 Dutch looked up ‘Peter R. de Vries’, after the city of Amsterdam unveiled a statue in honour of the reporter assassinated by organised crime in 2021.
CHART OF THE DAY
Courtesy of The Economist
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You gotta keep up with them Joneses, right? Wrong! These days, you gotta keep up with the Johansens, because Norway is the world’s richest country.
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If that’s too hard, try keeping up with the Schmits, because Luxembourg comes in at number two. Still too much? Maybe keep an eye on the Khans, because Qatar is the world’s third-richest nation.
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At least, that’s according to the boffins who crunched the population, living cost, and working hour data to figure out who is the richest of them all.
DAILY POLL
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Do you think the death of Mohammed Deif will make a difference in the ongoing war? |
Yesterday’s poll: What do you think Saturday’s Trump shooting means for the US in the world?
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🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 😐 We’ve seen this before, it’ll be fine (75%)
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🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 😵 It’s a major shift for the US (19%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (6%)
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Your two cents:
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😐 S.B: “It’s a stark reminder that we haven’t come as far as we might think, and we’re still haunted by the same problems.”
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😵 S.S: “We’ve seen this before, but the underlying conditions weren’t the tinderbox they are now. The incident itself doesn’t constitute a major shift, but what follows could. Time will show.”
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✍️ E: “It’s one massive case of confirmation bias. Everyone will make of this whatever confirms their existing beliefs and nothing will change.”
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