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IN TODAYโS EDITION
1๏ธโฃ How the world is processing the Trump shooting |
2๏ธโฃ An illegal selfie in Italy |
3๏ธโฃ Ballot of the day |
Hi Intriguer. I spent the weekend helping my tiny daughter learn to ride a bike (success!). But Iโm quite certain all the Kodak moments also caught me sneaking in several tactical glances at my phone, given everything going on around the world, including:
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The fun (Spain winning at both Wimbledon and the Euros)
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The wild (shambolic logistics as Argentina beat Colombia at the Copa in Florida)
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The intriguing (secret service types now hovering around JD Vance, the US senator, amid speculation heโll be Trumpโs VP pick), and yesโฆ
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The alarming (the first attempted assassination of a US president or lead candidate since 1981).
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Todayโs briefing leads with that last one, and explores how the rest of the world is now processing (and using) Saturdayโs shooting.
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PS – Do you live in DC? Weโre hosting an event with our mates at the Australian Embassy on July 24th, exploring how internet culture shapes our world. To join us, register here (more deets below).
THE HEADLINES
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Scores reported dead in Israeli airstrike targeting Hamas leaders.
Gaza authorities say at least 90 people were killed in an Israeli airstrike on a designated safe zone in Gaza on Saturday. Israel says the strike targeted Hamas leaders including Mohammed Deif, a presumed mastermind of the October 7th attacks. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has told journalists heโs โnot absolutely certainโ Deif was killed.
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China supports yuan as Third Plenum gets underway.
The Peopleโs Bank has withdrawn a net 3B yuan ($414M) from its banking system in its fifth consecutive month of tightening. Beijing is concerned a weakening yuan will trigger further capital flight. Meanwhile, the countryโs top leaders have gathered in Beijing for the Third Plenum, a key meeting roughly every five years to map out the countryโs broad social and economic policies.
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Google nears deal to buy cybersecurity startup Wiz.
The talks for the $23B acquisition are in an โadvancedโ stage, according to The Wall Street Journal. The Israel-founded and NYC-headquartered firm, which specialises in cloud security, has only been around since 2020 and was valued at $12B earlier this year. If confirmed, itโll be Googleโs biggest-ever acquisition.
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Rwandans head to the polls.
President Paul Kagame, whoโs been ruling the country since 2000, is expected to secure a fourth consecutive term in elections today (Monday). Heโs won over 90% of the vote in his previous three ballots, and authorities have again disqualified various other candidates from running, including outspoken critics.
TOP STORY
How the world is processing the attempted assassination of Donald Trump
Security and attendees react to gunfire at Trumpโs rally on Saturday.
Credits: Brendan McDermid / Reuters
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As the facts emerge from Saturday’s shooting at Donald Trump during his rally in Pennsylvania, it’s worth taking a look at how world powers are now processing and using those events, both in public and behind the scenes.
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First, behind the scenes: there are ~175 embassies in Washington DC (plus another ~40 consulates in Pennsylvania). Most will be writing cables (a fancy word for โreportsโ) back to HQ trying to help their governments make sense of what – if anything – this all means for the US and its place in the world.
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And you don’t need military grade encryption-busting tools to know what they’re probably saying.
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Embassies representing US rivals – or governments more sceptical and resistant to US power – will be more likely to see these events as evidence of:
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Worsening polarisation within US society
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The US becoming more inwardly focused, and
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The US democratic model becoming less appealing, its messaging less credible, and so its voice abroad less influential.
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Meanwhile, the embassies of US friends and allies – or those more reliant on US power to (say) stabilise regions or patrol sea lanes – might also see:
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A mere extension (albeit now a live-tweeted one) of the long US history of political violence
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Another ‘stress test’ that can ultimately prove the resilience of US society, institutions, and power, and
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A warning that could now nudge the US to course-correct back to a less apocalyptic framing around this election and beyond.
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As for out in public? The vast majority of world leaders have said the only thing you can say: condemn the violence; express sympathy for the harmed and killed bystanders; and wish Trump a speedy recovery (the shooting injured his ear).
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But a few other capitals have gone further, often with transparent motives. For example, Russia has carpรฉd the diem by hinting at a conspiracy, linking this violence at home to Americaโs “use of force” abroad, and poking the US for backing Ukraineโs self-defence rather than (they claim) law and order back home.
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The aim here is, of course, to fan any flames of US division, erode confidence in US authorities, and sap US support for Ukraine. Moscow will also have domestic aims, including highlighting US dysfunction in the hopes of preserving indifference or acquiescence to Putinโs rule back home.
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Interestingly, Venezuela‘s autocrat, who avoided a drone assassination in 2018, has played it straight: “We have been adversaries, but I wish President Trump health and a long life, and I repudiate the attack“. Maduro is under pressure ahead of elections, and needs neither US scrutiny nor enmity right now.
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Finally, US allies have also issued some interesting responses: Turkey‘s Erdoฤan voiced confidence (with a dash of yearning) that this won’t overshadow “the US elections and global stability“; Italy‘s Meloni said the event was a “warning to everyone to restore dignity and honour to politics“; and Australia‘s Albanese said “we must lower the temperature of debate“.
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For now, both Biden and Trump seem to have echoed that sentiment, apparently even managing a “good” if “short” phone call.
INTRIGUEโS TAKE
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The 175 embassies in DC will each also have their own take on what (if anything) this weekend’s shooting means for the US election outcome. And for guidance, they’ll look to a few sources across history, geography, markets, and their local contacts. But the reality is, they’ll get mixed signals.
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Looking back, theyโll see Reagan’s post-shooting bump came two months into his first term, then faded in weeks. And two assassination attempts didnโt deliver much of a sympathy or solidarity spike for Ford, nor (say) for the Democrats after RFK’s assassination in 1968.
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Looking abroad, Slovakia’s Fico didn’t see much of a lift after his shooting in May, nor did Japan’s Kishida after last yearโs incident with an explosive. Alternatively, you could look at (say) Brazilโs Bolsonaro, who won power after surviving a stabbing in 2018.
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As for the markets? They’ve mostly shrugged this off, though Bitcoin prices have spiked, likely reflecting beliefs among traders that US turmoil could drive more folks to go crypto.
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And as for local embassy contacts, they’ll be repeating the same lines you’ve heard elsewhere: this might fire up Trump’s base, fuel a ‘fighter‘ or ‘martyr‘ framing, distract from (or highlight) Biden’s age questions, or make it harder for Democrats to replace him. And so on.
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But at the end of the day, Trump is still Trump, Biden is still Biden, and the US election date is still many months (and twists) away.
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Also worth noting:
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The Republican Party’s convention kicks off in Milwaukee today (Monday). Trump is due to formally receive the partyโs nomination on Thursday, and heโs said heโs now rewriting his speech to focus less on Biden, and more on bringing the country together.
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Following the weekendโs shooting, President Biden has cancelled todayโs planned trip to Texas and has suspended all campaign communications (including ads).
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If youโre interested to dive a little deeper into how the world is shaping the US elections (and vice versa), subscribe for free to our very own Election Intrigue for our weekly, apolitical briefing.
A MESSAGE FROM HERON
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Risk disclosures: http://heronfinance.com/
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHEREโฆ
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๐ต๐ฐย Pakistan: A court has acquitted former prime minister and cricket star Imran Khan over charges of unlawful marriage. However, authorities have just issued fresh charges related to violent 2023 protests by his supporters, meaning Khan remains in prison for now.ย
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๐ฉ๐ชย Germany: The US will now deploy long-range missiles to Germany for the first time since the Cold War. This wouldโve been banned under a 1988 US-USSR pact against long-range arms, but the US accused Russia of violating it in 2014, and the deal collapsed in 2019.
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๐น๐ญ Thailand:ย The Royal Thai Air Force is apparently recommending its government buy the Swedish-made Gripen fighter jets rather than US-made F-16s, according to local media. Thailand is looking to replace its ageing fleet of a dozen F-16s and is weighing up competing packages being offered by Washington and Stockholm.
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๐ฆ๐ทย Argentina: Inflation has edged back up in June after five months of declines attributed to President Mileiโs austerity measures. The local statistics agency says surging electricity and gas prices explain most of Juneโs inflationary spike, as Milei cuts energy subsidies and price controls.
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๐ง๐ผย Botswana: The IMF has slashed Botswanaโs growth projection from 3.6% to 1%, citing a slowdown in diamond output. Global uncertainty has lowered the outlook for diamonds, which account for 80% of Botswanaโs exports and a third of its government revenue.
๐จ INTRIGUE EVENT ALERT
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Our next event is here! Join us on July 24th at 6pm EDT at the Embassy of Australia DC for our event, โHow Internet Culture Shapes Our World: Memes, Deep Fakes, and Viralityโ.
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Explore the impact of AI, viral content, and deep fakes on political discourse, public opinion, and global geopolitics. Gain insights from experts on how these elements shape electoral landscapes and understand the technology and ethical implications behind them. Registration is required – join us here.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
๐คฃ Your weekly roundup of the worldโs lighter news
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Authorities have sprung a guy trying to smuggle more than 100 live snakes from Hong Kong to Mainland Chinaโฆ in his trousers.
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New York City has paid McKinsey $1.6M to come up with a bold solution to the cityโs trash problem. Their innovative fix? Wheelie bins.
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A Scottish hotel is apparently looking to hire a โbanter merchantโ to keep guests entertained.
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Some are criticising a Japanese prefecture for sending mixed messages with posters that warn about wild bears, but which feature a very round, very cuddly bear.
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And a teenager is in trouble after breaking into the famed Duomo of Florence, Italy, and climbing to the very top just to take a selfie.
BALLOT OF THE DAY
Credits: Venezuelan National Electoral Council.
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Notice anything weird on this ballot for Venezuelaโs presidential election on July 28th? Yep, incumbent strongman Nicolรกs Maduro features an impressive 13 times.
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As comical as it looks, itโs standard procedure in Venezuela to record each party separately, even if theyโre all in a coalition backing Maduro.ย
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Opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzรกlez Urrutia, Maduroโs only real rival, appears a mere three times. The opposition is showing uncommon unity and momentum, but Maduro has a history of tipping the scales in his favour.
DAILY POLL
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What do you think Saturday’s Trump shooting means for the US in the world? |
Last Thursdayโs poll: How do you think the Euro football hosting rights should be awarded?
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๐จ๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ Whoever wins should host (like Eurovision) (23%)
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ By committee vote (as present) (7%)
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๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ฉ By random draw (12%)
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๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ณ๏ธ By an independent committee (11%)
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๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ โฝ Rotating between UEFA member states (45%)
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ๏ธ Other (write in!) (2%)
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Your two cents:
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โฝ B.B: โEvery UEFA member should get a chance to host/co-host – the backroom selections by committee inevitably lead to allegations of corruption.โ
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๐ณ๏ธ G.T.K: โNot all countries have and can afford the infrastructure to host to a suitable standard, plus there are governance and ethics concerns in several of the UEFA member states that you may not wish to platform by giving them a major competition.โ
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โ๏ธ D.D: โWhy a single nation? Europe is small enough that games could be distributed throughout. It would be great for each team to have at least one game in its own country.โ
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