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IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Your UK election recap |
2️⃣ Banknote of the day |
3️⃣ A Friday quiz |
Hi Intriguer. I’m a sucker for many things: roast duck, bourbon, and reality TV shows about trophy homes.
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I’m also a sucker for gracious concession speeches by vanquished politicians. The late John McCain delivered one for the ages when he lost his White House bid in 2008. He then went on late night TV and delivered one of my all-time favourite jokes, saying he “slept like a baby” after losing that election: “sleep for two hours, wake up crying, sleep two hours, wake up crying”.
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The UK’s outgoing prime minister (Rishi Sunak) has just delivered his own humble concession speech after steering his party to a historic loss. So today’s briefing gets you up to speed on that, and the man now moving into Number 10: Sir Keir Starmer.
THE HEADLINES
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Biden says he’s “not going anywhere”.
The US president has told guests at the White House July 4th celebrations that he’s “not going anywhere”, pushing back on calls for him to step aside over questions around his age and acuity. Major donor and Disney heiress, Abigail Disney, is the latest to raise her voice, announcing she’ll halt donations to the Democratic Party until Biden withdraws.
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Bolsonaro indicted over undeclared diamonds.
Federal authorities have reportedly indicted Brazil’s former president Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2022) over his alleged (mis)handling of $3M in diamonds gifted by the Saudis during his term. He’s previously denied any wrongdoing, and a top prosecutor still needs to decide whether to take the matter to trial.
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Iranians vote in presidential run-off.
Iranian voters are due back at the polls today (Friday) for the run-off presidential election pitting semi-reformist Masoud Pezeshkian against hardline Saeed Jalili, amid historically low turnout. The first round on June 28th saw Pezeshkian fall short of an outright victory (42.5%) ahead of Jalili on 38.7%.
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Hungary’s Orbán reportedly meeting Putin.
There are local reports that the leader of Hungary, which currently holds the EU’s rotating presidency, may meet Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Moscow today. The news has angered EU leaders, and comes on the heels of Orbán’s surprise Tuesday visit to Ukraine, where he spent three hours with President Zelenskyy.
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France to vote (again) on Sunday.
Ahead of Sunday’s heated second round parliamentary election, the latest polls suggest Marine Le Pen’s populist ‘National Rally’ (RN) opposition may fall short of securing an absolute majority, after centrist and left-leaning parties agreed to withdraw hundreds of candidates to avoid splitting the anti-RN vote.
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Crypto crash?
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have continued their slide this week, with bitcoin trading at $54.4k in London earlier this morning. Traders are grappling with international volatility, waning demand for US crypto ETFs, and the ongoing return of $8B in bitcoin from a failed exchange. Bitcoin hit a high of $74k in March, after starting the year at $44k.
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Hamas drops key demand?
According to Israeli media, Hamas has dropped its demand that Israel pledge up front to end the war, instead allowing such a pledge to come after an initial ceasefire and return of Hamas-held hostages. In response, Israel’s spy chief has reportedly flown to Doha to continue talks.
TOP STORY
Meet the UK’s new prime minister: Keir Starmer
In these polarising times, hopefully we can all agree on one thing: Labour’s Keir Starmer has good hair. Credits: Reuters/Phil Noble
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While Americans spent the 4th of July doubling down on hot-dogs and freedom, Brits elected Sir Keir Starmer as the UK’s 58th prime minister, ending 14 years of Conservative Party rule. The king will swear him in later today (Friday).
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This result was huge – historic even – and yet also completely unsurprising. Let’s start with the historic bit. The count is being finalised right now, but it looks like:
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The Conservative Party’s worst result in its 190-year history
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A Labour majority just shy of Tony Blair’s 1997 record, and
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Labour’s biggest-ever turnaround (it only just suffered its worst defeat in a century in 2019).
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So that takes us to the less surprising bit – why did this happen?
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The last 14 years have been tumultuous: Brexit, Boris, Covid, the lettuce, and so on. And while this all played out, Brits got hit with high inflation, high debt, low wages, creaking public services, and a creeping sense of malaise.
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So it was always going to be a tough gig for Rishi Sunak, who took the reins in 2022. He rolled the dice with early elections, only to limp to the finish line with this week’s awkward breakfast TV appearance alongside “Britain’s most-tattooed mum”.
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But lest you feel too much sympathy for Rishi, remember he’s also been the UK’s richest-ever PM, and his family is still wealthier than the king.
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So does Sunak’s loss mean everyone loves Starmer? No.
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The UK’s ‘first-past-the-post’ electoral system, plus strong performances from smaller parties, all mean Starmer’s landslide win actually comes despite his party garnering a smaller share of the vote than in 2019 or 2017.
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And other than for his truly exceptional hair (see pic above), folks are still getting to know the guy. That’s partly by design, and partly by character: it’s by design in the sense that he ran a classic ‘small target’ race that tapped into national disillusionment (his slogan was ‘change’), after dragging his party to the centre.
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And it’s by nature because he’s a driven but seemingly reserved guy: from his working class roots, he gained a national profile as a barrister defending (for example) vegan activists against McDonalds, before jailing terrorists as the country’s top prosecutor (that’s partly how he got knighted).
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But in opposition, Sir Keir has cultivated an image of a pragmatist tackling the problems folks care about: end the political chaos, stabilise the economy, and restore public services.
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So what does Starmer mean for the UK’s role in the world?
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More of the same for now. That’s because, first, the UK’s major parties are pretty aligned on big issues: they’re pro-NATO, pro-Ukraine, and pro-Israel, though Labour has defended the International Criminal Court’s independence after it issued arrest warrants for Israeli (and Hamas) leaders.
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And second, we’re unlikely to see major changes abroad, because Starmer’s priorities are (as above) really domestic. And sure, if he can make headway at home, that’ll restore the UK’s standing and influence abroad.
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But Sir Keir has consistently sought to manage those expectations, cautioning that there’s no “magic wand” or “switch” to immediately fix the UK’s problems.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
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This all looks less like a ‘surge’, ‘lurch’, or other dramatic verb to the left, and more like an act of retribution, purging, or other dramatic verb against an incumbent. And that’ll be familiar to any Intriguers who’ve followed us through this year’s elections in South Africa, India, France, and beyond.
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But either way, Starmer is now PM, riding on a historic win. So what now?
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Zooming out, his manifesto’s chapter on the world includes some solid lines (“Britain will be a reliable partner, a dependable ally, and a good neighbour”), as well as some familiar ones across the West (“we will co-operate where we can, compete where we need to, and challenge where we must” on China).
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But the point of that document was really to assure voters he’ll be a safe pair of hands, rather than to chart some major new course. So for now, we’ll likely see Starmer in Washington for next week’s 75th anniversary NATO summit, reiterating the UK’s alliance commitments.
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And thereafter, as much as folks may want him to focus back home, this world of ours rarely grants leaders that luxury.
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Also worth noting:
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Starmer’s presumed foreign secretary, David Lammy, has vowed an approach to the world that’s marked by “progressive realism” (“using realist means to pursue progressive ends”) and “securonomics” (eg, tasking British ambassadors abroad to deliver “growth and security to the UK economy”).
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This election has seen some high profile folks lose their seats, like defence secretary Grant Shapps and former PM Liz Truss. Other big names won seats, like former Labour leader (and now independent) Jeremy Corbyn, plus EU/migration-sceptic Nigel Farage. There were 650 seats up for grabs, with Labour now holding ~412 of them.
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Starmer was long rumoured to be the inspiration behind Colin Firth’s character in the Bridget Jones books and films. But settle down – the original author put the rumours to bed in 2020.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇹🇼 Taiwan: International firms are now weighing whether to remove their Taiwan staff from mainland China offices after Beijing announced it will impose the death penalty on “diehard” supporters of Taiwanese independence. According to a 2022 census, around 177,000 Taiwanese citizens are working in China.
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🇳🇴 Norway: Oslo has halted the sale of the last piece of private land in the arctic archipelago of Svalbard on national security grounds after China-based buyers took an interest. According to a 1920 treaty, Svalbard remains under Norwegian sovereignty, but both China and Russia have certain rights to exploit its mineral riches.
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🇮🇳 India: India’s securities and exchange regulator has accused US activist investor Hindenburg Research of “unfair market practices” for the firm’s infamous short of a major Indian conglomerate last year. In response, Hindenburg has accused the regulator of seeking “to silence and intimidate those who expose corruption and fraud”.
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🇧🇷 Brazil: President Lula da Silva has cancelled his trip to Brazil’s south because his Argentine counterpart is there this weekend (for a meeting of conservative leaders). Lula is demanding Javier Milei apologise for calling him corrupt and “an idiot dinosaur” – the two haven’t met, despite helming South America’s two largest, neighbouring economies.
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🇱🇧 Lebanon: Hezbollah says it’s launched over 200 rockets targeting Israeli military bases in retaliation for an Israeli strike that killed another senior Hezbollah commander. The US and France continue to engage in shuttle diplomacy in an effort to avoid things escalating into a full conflict.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Some tips if you happen to find yourself in 🇦🇺 Australia’s tropical city of Darwin this weekend
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Taste: Brave the heat and crowds to try the laksa at Mary’s legendary food van at Parap markets.
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Shop: Pay a visit to Songlines, the young social enterprise now boasting a huge selection of fabrics, paintings, designs, and other creative items from across Australia’s indigenous communities and beyond.
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Explore: Take a day trip to experience the endless history, waterfalls, and termite mounds of Litchfield National park.
BANKNOTE OF THE DAY
Credits: Reuters.
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Japan just introduced its first new banknote in 20 years. In addition to some delicate geometric designs, the new 5,000 yen (~$31) note features some colourful holograms as a nifty security feature: depending on the light, the portraits will flicker in different directions, haunted house style.
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The new banknotes also feature Shibasaburo Kitasato (nominated for the first Nobel Prize in medicine), Umeko Tsuda (a pioneer in women’s education), and Eiichi Shibusawa (considered the father of Japanese capitalism).
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All in all we’d say they’re pretty cool, but maybe not quite glow-in-the-dark-Canadian-coin cool.
QUIZ
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British elections have their lighter side, so let’s test your knowledge, shall we?
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Who among the following was *not* a real candidate or party this year? |
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Which election stunt did Ed Davey *not* do?(His centre-left Liberal Democrats came third with a record ~71 seats)
|
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Which of the following did *not* happen during this election? |
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Wednesday’s poll: Who should be responsible for paying for the damages caused by natural disasters?
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🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🧍 Private citizens (9%)
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🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💼 The government (20%)
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🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🏦 Multilateral institutions (World Bank, IMF, etc) (13%)
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🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 📈 The markets (9%)
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🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🌎 Everyone should contribute (UN’s loss and damage fund) (44%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (5%)
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Your two cents:
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🌎 S.F: “The government always seems to be the backstop. I’m tired of ‘privatize profits, socialize risks’.”
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🧍 J.D.H: “If you build in disaster prone areas, you should pay to repair.”
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📈 R.H: “There should be some kind of catastrophe insurance styled arrangement that entities contribute to according to exposure/risk.”
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🌎 C.G.H: “Optimally, we would invest more into infrastructure and practices that prevent and mitigate the severity of these disasters. Then, pay dividends on the success of disaster resistant infrastructure instead of playing hot potato with the bill when it’s time to face the consequences of our negligence.”
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✍️ S.C: “It really doesn’t matter who we claim should pay for the damage. Governments, banks, and insurance companies all get money from the same source.”
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