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IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ What Israel’s Rafah move might mean |
2️⃣ A Pulitzer about Oppenheimer |
3️⃣ The island that switches nationality twice a year |
Hi Intriguer. I was at an all-consuming tech and geopolitics expo yesterday, featuring talks and displays from frontier drone companies. Two things stuck with me.
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The first is that there are a lot of net positives happening in the AI space. One company is using AI to detect learning challenges in school-aged children, and adapt their curriculum accordingly.
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The second was an observation a military leader made about the future of warfare: as conflicts move into dense, urban environments, tech is getting more sophisticated and – in theory – better able to minimise civilian casualties.
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Today’s poll seeks your thoughts on that one. In the meantime, we bring you the latest on Israel’s push into Rafah.
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PS – The world’s largest-ever election is happening right now in India, and we’ll soon send our special edition to anyone who’s shared Intrigue with two or more friends (using your unique referral code down below).
THE HEADLINES
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US revokes Huawei chip licences.
The Department of Commerce says it’s revoked some export licences that allowed US chipmakers to sell certain semiconductors to China’s telecoms giant Huawei. It’s unclear which specific permits have been suspended, though the move comes weeks after Huawei unveiled a laptop powered by an Intel AI chip. The US had already banned the export of more advanced chips to China.
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TikTok sues the US over divest-or-ban bill.
The legal challenge, filed yesterday (Tuesday), claims the law is unconstitutional, would breach free speech, and would amount to “unlawful taking of private property”. TikTok also argues that a US sale within the January 2025 deadline is not “commercially, legally, or technically possible”, and that China “has made clear that it would not permit a divestment of the recommendation engine that is a key to the success of TikTok in the United States.”
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Zelensky assassination plot foiled.
Ukrainian intelligence says it has foiled a Russian plot to kill Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Authorities have arrested two suspects who had been operating within the Ukrainian state guard.
Tesla transfers senior VP to China.
Tom Zhu, one of Tesla’s three executive officers, will shortly board a plane from Texas to China where he’ll now be based again – he previously led the carmaker’s entry into China. The move comes shortly after CEO Elon Musk’s unannounced visit to Beijing for meetings with Premier Li Qiang, while local sales of Tesla’s Shanghai-made EVs dropped 18% (yoy) in April.
Hong Kong court bans protest song.
A Hong Kong appeals court has earlier today backed the government’s application to ban the famous protest song, ‘Glory to Hong Kong’. The decision overturns a previous ruling that had rejected the government’s request on free speech grounds.
TOP STORY
What a Rafah operation could look like
The view towards the east of Rafah on Monday. Credits: AFP.
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Israel is now pushing forward with its long-foreshadowed operation in the city of Rafah, at the southernmost point of the Gaza Strip bordering Egypt.
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After seizing the Gaza side of Rafah’s main border crossing with Egypt yesterday, Israel says its aim is now to “take out the last four Hamas brigades in Rafah”. And the defence minister says it’ll keep going until Hamas is “destroyed” or releases the hostages.
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But the international community continues to oppose the idea.
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Why? Before the Hamas attacks last October, Rafah was home to around 180,000 people. Today, nearly 80% of Gazans – or 1.3 million people – are now crammed there in dire humanitarian conditions, having sought (on Israel’s orders) shelter from the earlier violence up north.
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Israel says its operation will only impact 100,000 people by focusing on a limited section of Rafah and providing clear safe zones.
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But neither Israel’s critics nor its closest allies are buying it.
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Top European diplomat Josep Borrell says the offensive will cause a lot of casualties, “whatever they [Israel] say”, while the US has reportedly even backed up its public objections by halting munitions deliveries.
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Meanwhile, Israel’s neighbourhood is declaring its actions a “genocide” (the Saudis) and a “massacre” (the Jordanians), while UN chief António Guterres is saying it’s “a strategic mistake, a political calamity & a humanitarian nightmare.”
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Not a lot of common ground there, which brings us to the ceasefire talks.
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Since the last deal lapsed in November, mediation teams have criss-crossed the region hoping for a repeat, but they keep hitting hurdles.
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Practically, these negotiations are like a game of telephone. Israel and Hamas each relay their demands via Egyptian, Qatari, and US mediators. Hamas then needs sign-off from its leaders in both Qatar and Gaza, with the latter step taking days as the group relays messages through the Strip circuitously to evade Israeli intelligence.
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And that game of telephone might explain what’s now happened: Hamas announced on Monday night it had agreed to a deal, but Israel then said the deal was “far” from its original proposal. There are claims American mediators hadn’t looped Israel in, though US officials reject that and say “there have been no surprises.”
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
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The other hurdle holding up negotiations? It’s political, in the power more than party sense.
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Israel and Hamas have opposing, existential, and absolutist aims: the complete destruction of the other. But that doesn’t mean there’s nothing to negotiate. Rather, it means their negotiations are arguably less about altering those aims, and more about sequencing them.
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Eg, from Israel’s perspective, will the defeat of Hamas happen before the remaining hostages are freed, or after?
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Setting aside how realistic it is to completely eradicate Hamas, it opens up more political questions: for the Hamas leader in Gaza (Yahya Sinwar), the ~100 hostages are some of his few remaining sources of leverage. And that probably explains why he’s long seemed more opposed to a deal than his comrades in Qatar.
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As for Israel? Look at the timing. News of the ‘deal’ emerged as its tanks were fueling for Rafah. So it meant Israel had to make a decision: halt or proceed. Its war cabinet voted unanimously to push on. So what does that tell us?
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Notwithstanding the pleas from hostage families, allies, and the UN – plus the knife-edge negotiations – Netanyahu and his war cabinet are determined to end Hamas, and that means entering Rafah. For that, polls suggest they still have the backing of two key constituencies: 72% of Americans, and 55% of Netanyahu’s base at home.
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Also worth noting:
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The US State Department will reportedly miss a deadline for today (Wednesday) to report on whether it finds credible Israel’s assurances that its use of U.S. weapons doesn’t violate U.S. or international law.
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Israel has halted aid shipments through the Rafah crossing since seizing it yesterday morning (Tuesday).
A MESSAGE FROM QUARTZ DAILY BRIEF
Gain a deeper understanding of the global economy
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Gain a deeper understanding of the global economy by signing up for the Daily Brief from our friends at Quartz. You’ll join over half a million readers who rely on this free newsletter for their essential briefing on what’s happening in the business world every day. Get your insights today on everything from generative AI to global trade.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇰🇷 South Korea: Over 2 million barrels of Russian oil products are sitting off the coasts of Oman and Malta because South Korean petrochemical firms are hesitant to close deals. Greater scrutiny from Seoul has left South Korean buyers keen to avoid direct Russian imports.
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🇬🇧 UK: China reportedly hacked the British Ministry of Defence to access the personal details of British military service members, according to Sky News. The data breach, discovered in recent days, reportedly involved a payroll system for active and retired personnel.
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🇰🇭 Cambodia: China is funding a $1.7B upgrade of a canal from the Mekong River basin to the Cambodian coast, helping reduce the Southeast Asian country’s reliance on Vietnamese ports. Cambodia’s deputy PM is downplaying environmental concerns, and has dismissed claims the project could allow upriver access for Chinese warships.
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🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago: The Caribbean nation has announced it’s formally recognising the State of Palestine, joining 141 others including recent additions Jamaica and Barbados. The State of Palestine currently has the status of a ‘Permanent Observer State’ at the UN.
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🇹🇩 Chad: Counting continues after Monday’s election, the results of which could shift the country to a democracy after three years of military rule. While ten candidates are running, the favourite is the ruling general, Mahamat Déby, the son of the former long-time leader.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here are some of this year’s Pulitzer Prizes, announced on Monday
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Breaking News Reporting – While many local outlets struggle, the awards shone a light on Lookout Santa Cruz, a nimble paper that served its community with updates during catastrophic floods.
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Editorial writing – David E. Hoffman got a gong for his series on how authoritative regimes use technology to crack down on dissidents.
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Criticism – Justin Chang won for his writing on film, including a piece defending Christopher Nolan’s decision to avoid depicting the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in his Oscar-winning film, Oppenheimer.
MAP OF THE DAY
Credits: BBC.
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Pheasant Island, located between France and Spain, isn’t particularly remarkable: it’s tiny, empty, and its sparse vegetation wouldn’t even get the most zealous arboriculturist excited. But the river island is the only one in the world that changes nationalities every six months.
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Yes, Pheasant Island spends half the year under Spanish administration and the remaining half under French control – and has done so since the 17th Century.
DAILY POLL
Do you think AI-equipped weapons will help reduce civilian casualties? |
Yesterday’s poll: When do you think full shipping will resume via the Red Sea?
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🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🚀 Within 2-3 months – the Houthis are outgunned (9%)
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🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⏱️ Not this year – the new routes will take months to unpick (57%)
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🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 📜 Whenever Israel withdraws from Gaza (30%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (4%)
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Your two cents:
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⏱️ M.P: “The Somali piracy crisis took almost a decade of international collaboration to untangle and the pirate groups were purely profit-driven. Substitute an ideological component and you’ve got unending numbers of willing participants plus substantial foreign backing.”
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📜 M.C.M: “The Houthis have no incentive to stop until Israel retreats from Gaza: deterrence against their attacks is ineffective, Iran keeps the aid flowing towards Yemen, and most importantly, they are getting a massive propaganda boost by the very fact they are having such a huge impact on maritime trade.”
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✍️ A: “Not for a looong time…..”