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IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Four key numbers from Southeast Asia |
2️⃣ On this day in 2002 |
3️⃣ Google it (if you dare) |
Hi Intriguer. I’ll never forget a work trip I once took to Myanmar’s eerie new capital of Naypyidaw, carved right out of the jungle. The city is crisscrossed by these vast, empty highways that double as runways, just in case the ruling generals feel the need to bail ahead of an imminent invasion.
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I was sitting there across from a regime official who was rocking an impressive safari suit and aviator shades ensemble, when some unknown exotic animal caw-cawed at the window. And it was at that precise moment that I remember thinking to myself… “Jeremy, how the heck did you end up here?”
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It breaks my heart to see the conflict now engulfing that country, though as today’s briefing on a landmark Southeast Asia study shows, the whole region is pretty preoccupied with some other intriguing issues right now.
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P.S. Don’t forget to check out our VIP ticket giveaway with Tangle News.
THE HEADLINES
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World Central Kitchen founder accuses Israel of systematic attack
Chef José Andrés, the founder of World Central Kitchen (WCK), has accused Israel of targeting a WCK aid convoy “systematically, car by car”, in a “direct attack” that left seven aid workers dead in Gaza on Monday. Sir Alex Younger, the former head of MI6, has also blamed Israel’s “systematic targeting” for the deaths. The Israeli military, which says the strike was a result of misidentification, has apologised. At least 196 aid workers have been killed since the start of hostilities, according to the UN.
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Recovery efforts underway in Taiwan
Over 300 aftershocks have complicated rescue efforts as hundreds remain trapped after a 7.4 magnitude earthquake hit off the eastern coast of Taiwan on Wednesday, killing at least nine. Production at TSMC, the world’s leading semiconductor manufacturer, has largely restarted after a temporary halt.
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Gantz calls for early elections in Israel
Former defence minister Benny Gantz, a member of Netanyahu’s war cabinet and his main political rival, has called for early elections in September following widespread protests over the weekend. The prime minister’s party says an early vote would harm the country’s military fight in Gaza.
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Japan in talks to deploy troops to Philippines
Tokyo and Manila are in talks to deploy Japanese troops to the Philippines, plus finalise a reciprocal access agreement that would allow the two armed forces to train and exercise in each country. These and other security pacts are in the works for next week’s US-Japan-Philippines summit in DC, as the US and its allies boost cooperation to balance China.
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I, Robot?
Apple is investing in several personal robotics projects, hoping the sector will be the “next big thing”, according to a Bloomberg exclusive. Apple engineers are working on a robot that can follow users around their homes, and they’ve already developed an advanced tabletop device. The news comes shortly after Apple announced plans to drop its long-running EV project.
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Kuwaitis head to the polls (again)
Kuwait is holding its fourth parliamentary election in as many years as its politics again succumb to institutional infighting. Voters will choose among 200 candidates vying for a place in the 50-seat national assembly.
TOP STORY
The State of Southeast Asia – four key numbers
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The ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, a Singapore think tank, just dropped its annual State of Southeast Asia survey. It’s an intriguing read that captures the vibe of officials, journalists, businesspeople, and experts across the ten countries in the region’s key bloc (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN).
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Here are the report’s four numbers you need to know, and why.
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50.5% – Siding with China
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This is the percentage of folks who, if forced, now say they’d side with China over the US. It’s the first time China has ‘beaten’ the US here (by 1%), and it’s a stark shift from last year when the US led China by a comfortable 22%. That’s why you might’ve seen some ‘China is winning in Southeast Asia’ headlines this week.
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So… what’s going on? A key point to remember is the “if forced” part of the question – only 8% of respondents say they actually want to choose sides at all. And some (like US ally the Philippines) remain staunchly pro-US.
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But still, has something happened since last year to shift this dynamic so much? One possible factor is…
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46.5% – The Hamas-Israel conflict
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This is the proportion of folks who say the Israel-Hamas conflict is Southeast Asia’s top geopolitical concern – that’s more than, for example, the possibility of conflict at home over the South China Sea (which came second at 39.9%).
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The Hamas-Israel conflict features most prominently (though not exclusively) in responses from Muslim-majority countries like Brunei, Malaysia, and Indonesia. And three out of four people in these countries also sided strongly with China (a supporter of Palestinian causes since Mao’s era) rather than the US.
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But there’s another possible factor also driving China’s results this year…
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38.2% – US absence
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That’s the percentage of folks who say US efforts in Southeast Asia have now declined. And that’s interesting because, by many measures, the US has been more active lately, with increased joint military activities, new pacts with Vietnam and the Philippines, and a much-vaunted regional economic deal known as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF).
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But the issue here could be quality, not quantity. For example, there’s been genuine disappointment over US absences from key regional summits in recent years, while the new economic deal (IPEF) hasn’t really delivered on what Southeast Asia clearly values most – more access to the world’s largest economy (the US).
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Still, it’s not all rainbows and unicorns for China, either…
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50.1% – China unease
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That’s the segment of Southeast Asian respondents now voicing unease towards China. By way of comparison, only 37.6% feel the same way towards the US, which remains the region’s second-most trusted power after Japan.
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What’s going on? Almost half now say they worry about China turning its might against them. And if you dig deeper, that fear is, unsurprisingly, most pronounced in countries like the Philippines and Vietnam who are already feeling China’s heat (or water cannons, to be precise) in the South China Sea.
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So where does all that leave us?
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It’s important not to over-index on these kinds of snapshots, which are still relatively small, time-bound, and capture a cohort that’s evolving each year.
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But still… the above numbers should be enough to give the US, China, and others pause for thought as they vie for influence in one of the world’s most dynamic regions.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
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These kinds of studies can be useful as a straw in the wind, though this year’s report also seems to suggest the wind is now blowing in all directions at once. Eg, it suggests Southeast Asia could side with China if forced, yet the region also trusts the US more. And folks are optimistic about Southeast Asia’s ties with China, yet they’re somehow also distinctly uneasy about China, too.
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To us, these are less about any polling problems, and more an authentic reflection of what is such a diverse region at a complex moment.
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And the resulting picture offers three lessons for China, the US, and any other power now vying for regional influence. First, the prominence of the Hamas-Israel conflict is a reminder that politics isn’t always as local as we assume.
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Second, ‘it’s [still] the economy, stupid’, with 58% of participants listing unemployment at home as their top concern.
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But third, it’s a region that jealously guards its freedom to choose its own path, so there’s a balance between pursuing the first two lessons, without stumbling on the third. And no power is nailing that balance right now.
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Also worth noting:
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The study suggests trust in the US has been declining, in part due to America’s distraction with internal issues (there’s apparently a US election this year?).
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The data shows more regional ambivalence towards India, suggesting its big 2023 (including as G20 host) hasn’t shifted perceptions yet.
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Two-thirds of respondents listed Singapore as the region’s own leader. As a small city-state on some of the world’s most critical sea lanes, it probably knows more than anyone the importance of a region and world built on rules.
A MESSAGE FROM LYKEION
Lykeion is an independent financial media outlet founded by a team of ex-portfolio managers and geopolitical analysts.
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Every week, Lykeion sends out investment-grade research and insightful commentary on macro-trends and thematic analysis that focuses on the intersection of financial markets and geopolitics.
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And, for a limited time only, they’re giving Intriguers 2 months free of Lykeion Plus: deep dive editorials, macro research, and thematic overviews, all at the intersection of financial markets and geopolitics.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇬🇪 Georgia: The ruling Georgian Dream coalition has re-introduced a Russian-style foreign agents bill that sparked widespread protests when first announced last year. Critics say the proposal, which could penalise organisations that receive at least 20% of their funding from abroad, will hurt Georgia’s bid for EU membership.
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🇪🇺 EU: The EU is launching an investigation into two China-based solar panel companies suspected of benefitting from state subsidies. The move comes after the two firms entered a low bid for a contract to build a 110 MW solar park in Romania.
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🇦🇺 Australia: China has lifted its tariffs on Australian wine, ending a three-year freeze as relations between Beijing and Canberra continue to stabilise. Since last year, China has also lifted restrictions on Australian barley and coal, while Australia in turn dropped a WTO complaint against China.
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🇭🇹 Haiti: Law enforcement repelled another attack on the National Palace by armed gangs led by Jimmy ‘Barbecue’ Chérizier on Monday. The country’s gangs are taking advantage of a power vacuum left by the outgoing prime minister, Ariel Henry.
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🇿🇼 Zimbabwe: President Emmerson Mnangagwa has declared a national disaster in Zimbabwe over the country’s prolonged drought, with some $2B now reportedly needed to face a growing hunger threat. Neighbouring Zambia and Malawi have also declared states of disaster.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what’s been happening in other worlds
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Sport: Two Irish basketball teams have been ordered to replay the final 0.3 seconds of a match after a controversial referee call.
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Science: A new study led by Italian researchers has linked microplastics to heart attacks and strokes.
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Tech: Google has agreed to destroy billions of records of browsing data it collected from its ✌️Incognito Mode✌️ as part of a settlement in a class action lawsuit.
TODAY IN HISTORY
‘UNITA’ General Geraldo Abreu Kamorteiro (L) and the head of Angola’s armed forces, General Armando Da Cruz Neto (R) sign the peace agreement. Credits: BBC.
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On this day in 2002, the Angolan civil war ended with a peace agreement after 26 years. The country’s two main left and right-leaning factions had fought side-by-side in Angola’s war for independence from Portugal. But as the Portuguese withdrew in 1975, the two local factions soon clashed militarily and ideologically, escalating into a civil war and one of the Cold War’s most prominent proxy conflicts.
DAILY POLL
What do you think China can offer Southeast Asia that the US can’t match? |
Yesterday’s poll: How do you think Iran will retaliate for Monday’s strike on its embassy complex?
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🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨 ⚔️ Tehran will put on a show of force or risk losing credibility (48%)
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🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🛡️ It’s still mostly posturing, and can’t afford a war with Israel (or its US allies) (49%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)
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Your two cents:
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🛡️ C.W: “There’s a reason Iran hasn’t done anything big yet, and it’s not because it has such a kind and understanding government at its helm.”
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⚔️ H.S: “Iran has publicly taken a number of punches in the past two years. They may conclude that a tactical public strike is required to retain and motivate their allies. But I don’t see a fundamental change in their strategy of operating via surrogates.”
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🛡️ K.J.G: “Been to the Middle East enough times to know it’s mostly posturing. They will retaliate, but it will be below the threshold of war, in the unconventional realm where Iran is strongest.”
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✍️ B.A: “It is not in Iran’s interest to engage in a military retaliation ATM. Not engaging will further isolate Israel internationally and will make US’ position worse than it already is.”
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