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Hi Intriguer. India wrapped its annual ‘Raisina Dialogue’ in Delhi over the weekend. It’s the country’s flagship conference on geopolitics and, honestly, it’s hard not to love the theme for this year – ‘Chaturanga: Conflict, Contest, Cooperate, Create’.
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Why? First, always applaud amazing alliteration. And second, ‘Chaturanga’ is an ancient strategy board game, believed to be an ancestor of chess. Fittingly for 2024, nobody seems to know the rules anymore.
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So on that note, let’s dive right into today’s briefing, reflecting on two years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
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– Jeremy Dicker, Managing Editor
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Was this forwarded to you? We’re a team of ex-diplomats producing a concise and engaging geopolitical briefing for 85k+ leaders each day. It’s free to subscribe.
TODAY’S NEWS
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US positive on new Israel-Hamas deal. National security adviser Jake Sullivan says he hopes a “firm and final agreement” to release hostages and pause the fighting in Gaza could be reached “in the coming days”. The Israeli war cabinet has reportedly agreed on the rough outlines of a deal. International negotiators are working against two deadlines: the start of the month of Ramadan (10 March), and a planned Israeli ground operation in Rafah.
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Macron hosts EU leaders in Paris. French President Emmanuel Macron is hosting 20 European heads of state and government today (Monday) to rally support for Ukraine as it enters its third year of fighting. More on that below.
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Trump beats Haley again. Former US President Donald Trump won the Republican Party’s presidential primary in South Carolina on Saturday, beating former US ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley in her home state. Haley, the last remaining challenger for the Republican nomination, has vowed to remain in the race at least until the ‘Super Tuesday’ batch of primaries on March 5.
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Key miner sees half-year profits dive by 74%. The largest rare earths processor outside China, Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths, remains positive about its outlook despite a plunge in profits caused by weaker prices in China. China processes 85% of the world’s rare earth elements, several of which are key inputs for magnets used in EVs and wind turbines.
TOP STORY
The Russo-Ukraine War: two years on
Canva AI prompt: A disagreement among nations [AI often limits images related to war]
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Saturday marked two years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
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Not wanting to sound like your uncle on Thanksgiving here, but it’s hard to believe it was a year ago that US President Biden made a surprise trip to Kyiv, in a visit we described as sending different signals to different capitals:
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In Kyiv, we said his message was to “keep fighting”
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For Moscow, it was “find yourself an exit”
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In Beijing, it meant “don’t get involved”
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For other Western capitals, it meant “stick together”, and
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Back in Washington, it meant “stay the course”.
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So now, another year on, let’s take a look at each of those capitals again.
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🇺🇦 Kyiv – still standing
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85% (🇺🇦) of Ukrainians still believe Ukraine will win. But they’re starting to split over when this might happen, what it might look like, and what it might cost.
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That reflects the battlefield realities. Ukraine has virtually destroyed Russia’s pre-war army, but Russia has just built another. And that’s modern warfare – without a knock-out blow, it’s a war of attrition, won by sheer military-industrial power.
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And right now, Russia’s size and structure give it an attritional advantage.
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🇷🇺 Moscow – still fighting
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Adapting to initial failures, President Putin has doubled-down while absorbing staggering losses: an estimated 315,000 Russian troops have been killed or injured. That’s six times what the Soviets lost in Afghanistan, in a fifth of the time.
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Meanwhile back home, Putin’s skirting of Western sanctions has bought him breathing space to triple his defence spending and produce more shells than the US and EU combined. And abroad, he’s enlisted help from Iran (for drones), North Korea (for shells and rockets), and China (see below).
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So for now, the question is whether Putin’s pain threshold, and his determination to right what he sees as historical wrongs, can outlast the West’s resolve.
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🇨🇳 Beijing – still leveraging
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China’s ‘no limits’ partnership has stuck within non-lethal limits so far, offering Russia an economic lifeline via a quarter trillion dollars in trade (up 26%), and plugging gaps with items like Kevlar vests, microchips, and light vehicles.
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From Beijing’s perspective, the status quo has its advantages, delivering a distracted West and a subservient Russia, while projecting itself as a source of stability. It also allows China to focus on its economic woes back home.
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🌍 Other Western capitals – still together?
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Spurred on by doubts about future US aid, Europe’s leaders continue to see support for Ukraine as key to Europe’s security – five EU and six NATO members border Russia, many with their own experiences of Russian invasion.
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But at a popular level, Europeans don’t seem to share the urgency. And that might impact how Europe handles its ongoing lags in defence production, its continued consumption of Russian gas, or its continued business presence in Russia.
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🇺🇸 Washington, DC – still deciding
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Further US aid to Ukraine now depends on how things play out in Congress, where there’s slim margins and a degree of fatigue – some lawmakers argue the US should focus closer to home and let Europe do more of the heavy-lifting.
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US support for Ukraine has been a tiny percentage of total US defence spending, and it’s mostly been spent at home. But it’s still had an outsized impact on Ukraine’s self-defence, and backers say it upholds US credibility against rivals like North Korea and China.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
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For decades, there’d been this vast gulf between US power and the rest of the world – the US could succeed, make mistakes, miss opportunities, gift Jurassic Park to the world, and still have the time, space, and wherewithal to course-correct.
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But these days, if the US decides it’s been making a mistake in Ukraine (one way or another), the cost of fixing it will be higher, and the window narrower.
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Also worth noting:
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US President Biden announced hundreds of new sanctions against Russia on Friday, including some reaching Russia-linked firms in China, the UAE, Vietnam, and Liechtenstein.
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Four world leaders (from Belgium, Canada, the EU, and Italy) made a surprise joint appearance in Kyiv on Saturday to demonstrate unity.
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Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, also gave an address over the weekend, declaring Ukraine is “730 days closer to victory”. Separately, he made a rare public reference to Ukrainian casualties, saying 31,000 soldiers had died. Western intel puts it at 70,000.
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Many reasons: It’s difficult to know if you can trust them or if they’re just shilling you expensive financial products.
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇰🇷 South Korea: Authorities have issued a ‘severe health warning’ for the first time after two-thirds of the country’s doctors went on strike over disputes involving recruitment and pay. South Korea has one of the poorest doctor-to-patient ratios among developed countries.
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🇧🇾 Belarus: Belarusians headed to the polls yesterday (Sunday) to elect a new parliament which, like the current one, will back long-time autocrat Alexander Lukashenko. The local election chief said, “if someone finds our elections boring … there is the circus, the theater, concert venues”.
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🇹🇻 Tuvalu: The Pacific Island nation of Tuvalu has named a new prime minister after last month’s elections ousted a former pro-Taiwan leader. It’s unclear at this stage how incoming Prime Minister Feleti Teo will approach Taiwan, or Tuvalu’s recent security pact with Australia.
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🇲🇽 Mexico: The president’s son says he received threats after his cell number was shared online. It comes after the president (‘AMLO’) disclosed the cell number of a New York Times reporter who published allegations of possible criminal links (which AMLO has denied).
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🇳🇪 Niger: The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has lifted sanctions against Niger on “humanitarian grounds”. The regional bloc had imposed the sanctions following a military coup last year, prompting Niger to announce it was withdrawing from ECOWAS.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Your weekly roundup of the world’s more peculiar news
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The world’s oldest dog, Bobi, has been stripped (posthumously) of his title after doubts emerged about his real age.
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A Spanish winery has reported losses of more than $2.7M after an intruder spilt 60,000 litres of wine.
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An unusual house has gone up for sale in New Zealand: it can rotate 360° like a carousel.
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Authorities in Cape Town have found that the unimaginable smell plaguing the city came from a docked ship carrying 19,000 live cattle.
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An Australian Olympic horse rider has temporarily been banned from competing after riding in a mankini.
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And police in Peru have busted a drug deal thanks to an operative dressed as a teddy bear.
REPORT OF THE DAY
Credits: Lowy Institute.
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The fine folks at Australia’s Lowy Institute (a leading think tank) just dropped the 2024 Global Diplomacy Index, comparing the diplomatic footprint of major powers around the world. China remains at the top with 274 missions, followed closely by the US with 271. Regionally, China has a heavier presence in Asia, Africa, and the Pacific Islands, while the US leads in Europe and the Americas.
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Interestingly, Turkey has made a surprise appearance in third place, leapfrogging traditional diplomatic heavyweights France and Japan.
DAILY POLL
Do you think Ukraine will be in a better or worse position this time next year? |
Last Thursday’s poll: Do you think AI’s boom is sustainable?
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🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 📈 Yes, we’re going to see AI in every part of our lives in a few years (83%)
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🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💥 No, it’s more of a bubble (14%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)
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Your two cents:
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📈 C.L: “I think AI will become as common as the smartphone within a decade.”
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💥 E.K.H: “Bubble isn’t the right word. I think it’s here to stay, but its revolutionary potential is overblown. I’ve worked with a bit, and my reaction has always been disappointment – it’s finicky to use, inaccurate, doesn’t take directions well, and the results are never as good as what’s promised.”
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✍️ C.B: “The dotcom bubble was not ‘sustainable’, in the sense that it crashed. And yet the internet continues to increasingly dominate our lives. So the possibility of a crash does not preclude the simultaneous possibility of a vast surge in AI potential and reach.”