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Hi Intriguer.ย Welcome to International Intrigue for the first time in 2024! The year of elections is off and running: ~50 million people voted yesterday in a controversial election in Bangladesh, and Taiwan goes to the polls this Saturday in whatโs shaping up to be a tight race.
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But our top story today is about the rising risk of a wider war in the Middle East. Israel has been openly mooting a pre-emptive attack on Hezbollah. While that might just be political bluster, the US is sufficiently concerned that it has dispatched Antony Blinken to calm the waters.
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Weโve got plenty of big things planned this year as we guide you through the most consequential global news as it happens. The team and I are grateful to have each and every one of you along for the ride.
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– John Fowler, Co-Founder
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Was this forwarded to you? We’re a team of ex-diplomats producing a concise and engaging geopolitical briefing for 85k+ leaders each day. Itโs free to subscribe.
TODAYโS NEWS
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Sheikh Hasina wins fourth straight term as Bangladesh prime minister. The main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, had called for a boycott of Sundayโs vote after a harsh crackdown on its members landed thousands in jail. Election authorities say voter turnout was only ~40%, but some analysts think the real figure is even lower.
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Lloyd Austin secretly hospitalised on New Yearโs Day. The US Secretary of Defense did not inform President Biden, the National Security Council, or his Pentagon deputy until several days after his hospitalisation. No explanation has yet been given, and while Austinโs job doesnโt appear to be in trouble right now, we reckon this story is far from over.
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China says it detained an MI6 spy. Authorities claim the foreign national was the head of an overseas consulting firm and used their job to pass on 17 pieces of intelligence to the British spy agency. The news follows months of increased scrutiny for foreign consulting firms in China, several of which have seen their offices raided by the authorities.
US Congressional leaders reach deal on government spending. But lawmakers will need to act fast to pass the agreement in order to avoid a government shutdown later this month. The deal includes $886B for defence (and $773B for non-defence) matters.
Oppenheimer sweeps the Golden Globes. Christopher Nolanโs film took home five awards. The nightโs other big winner was hit TV series Succession.
TOP STORY
US says Israel-Hamas conflict at serious risk of escalating into a wider war
Secretary of State Blinken met Turkish President Erdoฤan on Saturday to enlist Turkey’s help in containing the Israel-Hamas conflict. Credit: Fox
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The Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah fired about 40 rockets into Israel last Saturday, raising concerns of military conflict along Israelโs northern border with Lebanon. Hezbollahโs rocket attack was allegedly in response to the reported assassination of senior Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri in an Israeli air strike on 2 January.
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Ever since Hamasโ attack on Israel on 7 October, US and other Western officials have been concerned Israelโs response could lead to a multi-front regional war. So far, diplomatic efforts – including frequent trips to the region by US and European officials – have avoided that.
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According to a Washington Post report published yesterday citing a US intelligence assessment, the primary source of risk of escalation of the conflict comes from within the Israeli government itself.
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Several senior Israeli officials have been pushing for a pre-emptive strike against Hezbollah since the original Hamas attack, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said yesterday that Hezbollah should โlearn what Hamas has already learned in recent months.โ
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What might a wider conflict look like?
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Hezbollah could increase its rocket attacks but target more sensitive sites in Israel like chemical plants or nuclear reactors. However, initial analysis suggests Hezbollah does not want to escalate the conflict.
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There are worrying signs that violence is continuing to spread from Gaza into the West Bank after more than a dozen people died (including nine Palestinians) from clashes there on Sunday.
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Further south, Yemen-based Houthi rebels have spent the last few months attacking shipping in the Red Sea and sending drones to attack Israel. The US has warned the Yemen peace plan withย Saudi Arabiaย will fall apart if the attacks continue.
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Other Iran-backed militias in the region could step up attacks, including against US military personnel in Iraq and Syria.
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Any combination of the scenarios above would make a bad situation far worse, including for Israel, which military analysts believe may struggle in a multi-front war.
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The US is clearly worried. Secretary of State Blinken is currently on his fourth trip to the region in three months, visiting Turkey, Qatar, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt to enlist regional governmentsโ help to contain the conflict. He will also visit Israel and the West Bank tomorrow.
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Meanwhile, Israelโs military response in Gaza continues, including an airstrike which killed two journalists yesterday.
INTRIGUEโS TAKE
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The Washington Post said its report was based on classified intelligence and interviews with a dozen Biden Administration officials and diplomats. These donโt appear to be unauthorised leaks but intentional background briefings by the Biden Administration designed to sway public opinion in the US and Israel.
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But in Israel, Netanyahuโs prime ministership is likely finished once the military conflict with Hamas is over, which some argue gives him an incentive to widen the war. And even Netanyahu understands the dangerous ramifications of getting Hezbollah embroiled.
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In the US, Biden is trying to convince voters – particularly unhappy, younger ones – that his administration is doing everything it can to constrain Israel and limit civilian deaths in Gaza while publicly supporting Israelโs right to defend itself.
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It has become an increasingly tricky line for the President to walk.
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Also worth noting:
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The Israeli Supreme Court, sitting with all 15 of its justices for the first time in its history, struck down a law passed by Prime Minister Netanyahuโs government designed to limit the courtโs ability to review government decisions. The law had triggered some of the largest protests in Israelโs history last summer.
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Hackers attacked information screens in Beirut airport yesterday, replacing flight information with an anti-Hezbollah message.
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHEREโฆ
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๐จ๐ณย China: Chinese authorities have launched an anti-dumping investigation into European Brandy imports in retaliation for Brusselsโ anti-subsidy probe into Chinese electric vehicles.ย Brandy is hugely popular in China, and shares of French brandy producers fell significantly on the news.
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๐ท๐บย Russia: The White House has accused Russia of using North Korean ballistic missiles in Ukraine in contravention of UN sanctions on Pyongyang. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby also said Moscow is looking to acquire Iranian missiles for its war in Ukraine.ย ย
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๐น๐ผย Taiwan: Two South Korean nationals have been charged with leaking submarine blueprints to Taiwan. Seoul will hope the move is enough to shield it from Chinese blowback for helping Taiwan develop its military capabilities.
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๐ฆ๐ทย Argentina: Officials from the IMF and the new Argentinian administration met on Friday amid rumours of a deal to get the countryโs debt repayments back on track. President Milei has already announced spending cuts for the year and a 54% currency devaluation.
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๐ฎ๐ทย Iran: The Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for last weekโs deadly bomb attack at a memorial for General Soleimani in the Iranian town of Kerman. Tehran had initially blamed Israel and the US for the attack.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
๐คฃ Your weekly roundup of lighter news from around the web:ย
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A Philippine Cardinal says his identity has been stolen to sell questionable tea, portable air-conditioning units, and rheumatism medication.ย
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A 13-year-old became the first person to finish Tetris.ย
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A popular Brazilian-inspired skincare brand has come forward to deny accusations that its moisturiser attracts wolf spiders.ย
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An English teenager has become the youngest player ever to reach the final of the World Darts Championships.ย
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A Pennsylvania couple was shocked to find that their beloved dog had eaten $4,000 in cash.
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A Chinese slinky performer created a new world record after surrounding 41 glass bottles with his slinky in one minute.ย ย
CHART OF THE DAY
Credit: Bloomberg
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Taiwanese voters will vote on Saturday to elect their next president. The latest opinion polls suggest Lai Ching-te from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is leading his main rival, Hou Yu-ih from the more Beijing-friendly Kuomintang.
DAILY POLL
How probable is a wider war in the Middle East? |
Last Decemberโs poll: What stories would you like to see us cover more in 2024?
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๐จ๐จ๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ก๏ธ Security (16%)
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๐จ๐จ๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ฑ Climate (17%)
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๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ๏ธ Conflicts (10%)
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๐จ๐จ๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ Big power competition (15%)
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๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ณ๏ธ Elections (5%)
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๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ ๐ฐ Geo-economics and trade (22%)
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๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ป Tech (6%)
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๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ค Politics (6%)
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๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ๏ธ Other (write in!) (4%)
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Your two cents:
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๐ฑย M.C: โThe Earth’s climate has profound effects on all of the other topics listed in this poll and is a difficult topic to navigate when it comes to agendas.โ
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โ๏ธ F.I.M: โAll of the above :)โ
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๐ณ๏ธ ย M.G: โLots of important elections coming in 2024 globally!”
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โ๏ธ T.F: โUsually underappreciated and under-resourced, but global health is important too!โ