🌍 Russia attempts to tame the Wagner Group

Hi there Intriguer. Life is full of plot twists, and nobody knows that better than the Ukrainian refugee who just won a €500,000 lottery in Belgium.

Today’s briefing is a 4 min read:

• 🇷🇺 The rivalry between Russian military factions is heating up.

• 🌊 What does Asia think of US–China tensions?

• ➕ Plus: Venezuela is still in crisis, how the papers are covering the death of former Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi, and is Botswana becoming less exceptional?

⏱️ Around the world in sixty seconds

1. 🇨🇳 China: Authorities are planning to restrict file sharing via Bluetooth and AirDrop to curb the dissemination of “undesirable” information. The new rules will close one of the few communication channels capable of bypassing China’s ‘Great Firewall’.

2. 🇲🇪 Montenegro: A pro-EU party has won Sunday’s snap election, but is unlikely to have the seats to form a government alone. Unlike in previous elections, this one focused on the economy rather than whether the country should lean towards the EU or Russia.

3. 🇮🇩 Indonesia: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations will hold its first-ever joint military exercises in September. They’ll be held on the edge of the South China Sea, which China largely claims for itself despite an international ruling to the contrary in 2016.

4. 🇨🇴 Colombia: The country’s biggest active rebel group has signed a six-month ceasefire after months of negotiations, in a win for President Petro’s “total peace” effort.

5. 🇪🇬 Egypt: All Sudanese citizens must now obtain a visa to enter Egypt, according to new rules reversing a long-standing exemption for women, children and the elderly. More than 200,000 Sudanese folks have crossed into Egypt since violence broke out two months ago.

🇷🇺 Russia | Defence & security

Wagner faces off with the Russian military

The head of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is defying an order to integrate his forces with the Russian military.

The order came on Saturday, when Russia’s deputy defence minister instructed “volunteer formations” to sign contracts with the military by 1 July. Contracts would give these groups legal status and help develop a unified approach to the war, according to the ministry.

But Prigozhin flatly refused, and accused the ministry of incompetence, arrogance, and of seeking to cut Wagner’s supply of weapons and ammo.

And it’s hardly the first time this rivalry has flared up. In recent weeks:

1. 🔐 Wagner arrested a Russian officer for firing on a Wagner unit

2. 🥊 Prigozhin hinted at deploying his troops inside Russia if needed, and

3. 🏰 He even warned of “revolution”, and denied speculation he could stage a coup.

Intrigue’s take: Prigozhin’s fiery rhetoric is part of his negotiation strategy. Wagner and the defence ministry have tied themselves in a Gordian knot:

• the ministry needs Wagner’s perceived effectiveness, and

• Wagner needs the ministry’s military-industrial supply chain.

The two factions have managed to step back from the brink a few times so far. But as NATO-equipped Ukrainian brigades start probing Russian lines, this hostile union will be tested like never before.

Also worth noting:

• Unlike Wagner, Chechen forces that have been fighting in Ukraine agreed to sign contracts with the Russian defence ministry.

• Ukrainian forces appear to have made some gains during the first few days of their highly-anticipated counter-offensive.

📰 How newspapers covered…

The passing of Silvio Berlusconi, former Italian Prime Minister.

Today’s newsletter is supported by: The Merge

If you like business and technology…you’ll LOVE this!

The Merge dispenses weekly knowledge bombs on the intersection of defense business, technology, and industry happenings—with a sprinkle of history, policy, and strategy for good measure.

• It’s written by fighter pilots who are dedicated to making sense of defense in an edgy, enjoyable way.

Get smarter in five minutes each week—for free. People in the Pentagon and Congress read it, and so should you.

🌊 Indo-Pacific | Geopolitics

Caught in the middle of US-China competition

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is reportedly preparing to fly to China next week after months of US-China relations hitting repeated new lows.

And a new survey from the Eurasia Group Foundation (covering Singapore, South Korea, and the Philippines) suggests many in the region will be cheering this resumption of dialogue:

• 💣 90% say they are worried about a US-China confrontation

• 📉 Most think US-China competition is negative for their country, both in terms of domestic polarisation and national security, and

• ➕ It’s not a zero-sum game: 31% have positive views of both the US and China, though the US is generally held in higher regard.

Intrigue’s take: This isn’t academic for the region (if anywhere). Just last week, South Korea’s president addressed the impact US-China competition is already having on his country’s huge semiconductor sector.

So it’s not surprising the region would yearn for de-escalation. But that doesn’t mean the region wants a smaller US military presence: more than 80% of respondents think military collaboration with the US is a good thing.

Also worth noting:

• In Singapore, 72% also support military collaboration with China.

• Singapore and China upgraded their relationship in April.

➕ Extra Intrigue

We’re very online, so you don’t have to be.

• How Russia went from ally to adversary

• Is the Amazon really the world’s longest river? ($)

• Saudi-Iranian rapprochement isn’t totally working

• Is Botswana becoming less exceptional?

• Foreign investors are fleeing Chinese tech

🗳️ Poll time!

💬 Quote of the day

Over seven million people have fled Venezuela since 2015, and the region’s politics have become less stable as a result. Venezuelan human rights defender Carolina Jiménez Sandoval joined us on Intrigue Outloud to explain how Latin American leaders can help (or harm) Venezuela.

Yesterday’s poll: Should companies pay cyber ransoms?

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👍 Yes, the ransoms are tiny compared to the cost of not paying (13%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 😨 No, paying the ransom just perpetuates the cycle (87%)

Your two cents:

• 😨 K.L.W: “The initial position of a victim should be not to pay, but there might be circumstances that justify paying the ransom.”

• 👍 C.J: “We should not applaud companies for refusing to pay a ransom when the consumer’s information is on the line.”