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Today’s briefing: |
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Sponsored by:  |
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Good morning Intriguer. There’s an ol’ saying that “he who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal.” It reflects the fact that frontrunners don’t always emerge as pope — in fact, that’s happened just twice in the last 60 years.
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It’s maybe a reminder that we’re human, and we’re prone to the kinds of evolving alliances, philosophies, and surprises we’re bound to see this week, as the Vatican’s conclave gathers to elect the next pope — our briefing for today.
Number of the day
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6
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That’s the number of votes by which Friedrich Merz just failed to become Germany’s next chancellor, in a historic first (today’s parliamentary ballot was expected to run smoothly). It’s unclear who defected from his camp. The Bundestag now has 14 days to elect a candidate with an absolute majority: Merz can try again, but so can others.
Who’ll be the next pope?
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As the sun rises over the Eternal City tomorrow (Wednesday), 133 cardinals from 71 countries will shuffle into the Michelangelo-painted Sistine Chapel to elect the next pope.
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They’ll be cut off from the outside, voting once in the afternoon of 7 May and then twice each morning and afternoon thereafter until a two-thirds majority elects the next pope.
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The whole thing can last days (shout-out to the two cardinals who’ve already called in sick), but statistically speaking, we should have a new pope this week.
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So, who are the front-runners to lead the world’s smallest sovereign state and largest single religious institution? Let’s run a quick breakdown by region:
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Europe
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The ‘Old Continent’ is home to the largest number of eligible cardinals, dubbed ‘papabile’ (Italian for ‘pope-able’). And while the Vatican has the world’s highest per-capita number of Bloomberg terminals, they’re eligible more in the ‘theological’ and ‘leadership’ sense:
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Pietro Parolin: he’s secretary of state (second in charge), so an obvious frontrunner, though this has its downsides (ask Hillary). He’s also copped flak for “selling out” China’s Catholics via the 2018 deal that empowered the Communist Party to appoint local bishops (with the pope relegated to a veto).
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Pierbattista Pizzaballa: relatively young at 60, he was always destined for buzz with a name like that. Say it out loud, and you’ll be transported back to that time you fell in love while strolling Cinque Terre. Fluent in Hebrew (though not Arabic), he’s Patriarch of Jerusalem and has focused on interfaith dialogue, the plight of Christians, and de-escalation (he offered to swap himself for the Hamas hostages).
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Africa
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A New York archbishop once quipped he needed an atlas every time Pope Francis appointed a new cardinal, including firsts in places like Cape Verde.
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Fridolin Ambongo Besungu is the continent’s frontrunner, serving as archbishop of Kinshasa (Congo) and gaining a global profile for his fierce criticism of corruption and mining, while maintaining a traditional streak on social issues.
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One way or another, he’s seen as a kingmaker (14% of the votes now hail from Africa).
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Asia
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Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle has his own YouTube show plus relatively youthful vibes, earning the ‘Asian Francis’ nickname for his modern approach, though this might’ve alienated some of the more old-school types he’ll need to win over.
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And yes, there are also ‘papabiles’ from the Americas and Oceania, but none seem to be gaining any traction. If one ends up pope, Intrigue will buy you a drink some time.
Intrigue’s Take
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If you haven’t seen the films Two Popes or Conclave, they get the coveted Intrigue rubber stamp of approval, which is something we just made up. They’re surprisingly thoughtful and at times profound films exploring themes the West too often avoids.
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But why cover any of this? We’ll answer that with some quotes from the films themselves:
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“Truth may be vital, but without love, it is unbearable” (Two Popes)
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A Vatican diplomat once quipped that while most embassies focus on interests, the Vatican’s nunciatures (embassies) focus on values (notwithstanding the church’s sins). That means they pop up in some surprising places, and can carry some surprising influence.
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“They say eavesdroppers can use lasers to read the vibrations of the glass” (Conclave)
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This line is a passing nod to the counterespionage measures the Vatican (like every other state) must take to keep its deliberations secret. And yes, you can bet spooks will track this process closely for any insight into how this ancient body might harm their interests.
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“Certainty is the great enemy of unity” (Conclave)
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As social, political, and technological forces accelerate, we see a world that’s in many ways getting less certain, not more. And that’ll grant the Vatican (and other traditional sources of influence) more influence, not less.
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Sound even smarter:
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Other names doing the rounds include Matteo Zuppi (a top Vatican diplomat), Hungary’s Peter Erdo (who famously defied the Soviets), and France’s Jean-Marc Aveline (a media favourite due to his striking resemblance to a beloved ex-pope).
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
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🇺🇸 UNITED STATES – OpenAI ditches ‘for-profit’ plans. p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment: It’s unclear whether this’ll satisfy OpenAI’s newest investors, who’d conditioned their billions on a successful restructuring. |
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🇮🇱 ISRAEL – Security cabinet backs plan to capture Gaza. |
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🇨🇳 CHINA – Firms ‘washing’ their exports to dodge US tariffs. p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment: As with anything, tax too high and a black market emerges. You need cooperation from local authorities, but they might not be in a cooperating mood. |
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🇰🇷 SOUTH KOREA – Conservative party picks candidate. p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment: They can pick who they like, but it’s the opposition’s popular and populist-lite Lee Jae-myung who looks set to inherit Korea’s polarised politics and economy. |
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🇷🇴 ROMANIA – Populist-right wins first round. p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment: The Ukraine-sceptic Simion might soon be ruling a NATO ally, rattling neighbouring Ukraine (which has banned him). This is partly the result of an electoral system that splits the centre, but also the result of a political class that’s lost credibility. |
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🇮🇩 INDONESIA – Regulators halt Sam Altman’s biometric ID project. |
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🇺🇸 USA – Trump unveils 100% movie tariffs. |
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🇦🇪 UAE – Top UN court dismisses Sudan case against UAE. p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } The ICJ’s dismissal of Sudan’s genocide case was due to a technical UAE carveout, rather than any ruling on the merits. Sudan argues the Emiratis are breaching the genocide convention by arming the notorious RSF paramilitary. (AfricaNews) |
Extra Intrigue
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What people around the world are googling:
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Folks in 🇵🇪 Peru looked up ‘estado de sitio’ (state of emergency) after a regional government sounded the alarm over the murder of 13 kidnapped miners.
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🇦🇺 Aussies googled New York’s famous ‘Met Gala’ to follow their favourite red carpet looks.
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And 🇩🇪 German racecar fans searched for ‘Jochen Mass’ after news broke that the nation’s F1 hero has passed away, aged 78.
From our friends
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Want to get smarter about financial markets? Join 200,000 investors who get Opening Bell Daily in their inbox — it’s packed with Wall Street data and analysis you won’t find anywhere else. Subscribe free.
Airport of the day
Credits: Wellington Airport
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Wellington Airport features some pretty rad Lord of the Rings-inspired giant eagles welcoming weary travellers to Middle Earth New Zealand. But word is they’ll soon be replaced with a new mystery exhibit. Maybe a huge black tower with a fiery eye?!
Today’s poll
What do you think has the most influence on the papal election? |
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Yesterday’s poll: Why do you think Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on so much cash right now?
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💲 Stocks are over-priced (30%)
🔥 The world is too volatile (68%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
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Your two cents:
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🔥 M.C: “It seems like the economic instability worldwide might warrant a little caution. Rules are being changed in unnerving ways.”
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💲 E: “He’s been sitting on this cash for years now so that tells me it’s more an issue of overpriced stocks rather than just geopolitics.”
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✍️ R.R: “He’s waiting for a recession to make stocks a bargain. It’s one of his strategies. And he has been very successful.”
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✍️ A.C: “He’s about to retire, and he wants his successor to make the next investment decision.”