๐ŸŒ Why Kim Jong Un is not happy


:root {–wt-primary-color: #2D2DC8;–wt-text-on-primary-color: #FFFFFF;–wt-secondary-color: #F9FAFB;–wt-text-on-secondary-color: #030712;–wt-tertiary-color: #FFFFFF;–wt-text-on-tertiary-color: #222222;–wt-background-color: #FFFFFF;–wt-text-on-background-color: #222222;–wt-subscribe-background-color: #FFFFFF;–wt-text-on-subscribe-background-color: #222222;–wt-header-font: “Roboto”, ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, “Segoe UI”, Roboto,”Helvetica Neue”, Arial, “Noto Sans”, sans-serif, “Apple Color Emoji”, “Segoe UI Emoji”, “Segoe UI Symbol”, “Noto Color Emoji”;–wt-body-font: “Roboto”, ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, “Segoe UI”, Roboto, “Helvetica Neue”, Arial, “Noto Sans”, sans-serif, “Apple Color Emoji”, “Segoe UI Emoji”, “Segoe UI Symbol”, “Noto Color Emoji”;–wt-button-font: “Roboto”, ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, “Segoe UI”, Roboto, “Helvetica Neue”, Arial, “Noto Sans”, sans-serif, “Apple Color Emoji”, “Segoe UI Emoji”, “Segoe UI Symbol”, “Noto Color Emoji”;–wt-border-radius: 8px}.bg-wt-primary { background-color: var(–wt-primary-color); }.text-wt-primary { color: var(–wt-primary-color); }.border-wt-primary { border-color: var(–wt-primary-color); }.bg-wt-text-on-primary { background-color: var(–wt-text-on-primary-color); }.text-wt-text-on-primary { color: var(–wt-text-on-primary-color); }.border-wt-text-on-primary { border-color: var(–wt-text-on-primary-color); }.bg-wt-secondary { background-color: var(–wt-secondary-color); }.text-wt-secondary { color: var(–wt-secondary-color); }.border-wt-secondary { border-color: var(–wt-secondary-color); }.bg-wt-text-on-secondary { background-color: var(–wt-text-on-secondary-color); }.text-wt-text-on-secondary { color: var(–wt-text-on-secondary-color); }.border-wt-text-on-secondary { border-color: var(–wt-text-on-secondary-color); }.bg-wt-tertiary { background-color: var(–wt-tertiary-color); }.text-wt-tertiary { color: var(–wt-tertiary-color); }.border-wt-tertiary { border-color: var(–wt-tertiary-color); }.bg-wt-text-on-tertiary { background-color: var(–wt-text-on-tertiary-color); }.text-wt-text-on-tertiary { color: var(–wt-text-on-tertiary-color); }.border-wt-text-on-tertiary { border-color: var(–wt-text-on-tertiary-color); }.bg-wt-background { background-color: var(–wt-background-color); }.text-wt-background { color: var(–wt-background-color); }.border-wt-background { border-color: var(–wt-background-color); }.bg-wt-text-on-background { background-color: var(–wt-text-on-background-color); }.text-wt-text-on-background { color: var(–wt-text-on-background-color); }.border-wt-text-on-background { border-color: var(–wt-text-on-background-color); }.bg-wt-subscribe-background { background-color: var(–wt-subscribe-background-color); }.text-wt-subscribe-background { color: var(–wt-subscribe-background-color); }.border-wt-subscribe-background { border-color: var(–wt-subscribe-background-color); }.bg-wt-text-on-subscribe-background { background-color: var(–wt-text-on-subscribe-background-color); }.text-wt-text-on-subscribe-background { color: var(–wt-text-on-subscribe-background-color); }.border-wt-text-on-subscribe-background { border-color: var(–wt-text-on-subscribe-background-color); }.rounded-wt { border-radius: var(–wt-border-radius); }.wt-header-font { font-family: var(–wt-header-font); }.wt-body-font { font-family: var(–wt-body-font); }.wt-button-font { font-family: var(–wt-button-font); }input:focus { –tw-ring-color: transparent !important; }li a { word-break: break-word; }@media only screen and (max-width:667px) {.mob-stack {display: block !important;width: 100% !important;}.mob-w-full {width: 100% !important;}}.table-base, .table-c, .table-h { border: 1px solid #C0C0C0; }.table-c { padding:5px; background-color:#FFFFFF; }.table-c p { color: #000000; font-family:’Helvetica’,Arial,sans-serif !important; overflow-wrap: break-word; }.table-h { padding:5px; background-color:#FFFFFF; }.table-h p { color: #000000; font-family:’Trebuchet MS’,’Lucida Grande’,Tahoma,sans-serif !important; overflow-wrap: break-word; }

.bh__byline_wrapper {font-size: .875rem;line-height: 1.25rem;vertical-align: middle;justify-content: space-between;display: block;}.bh__byline_social_wrapper {display: flex;margin-top: 0.5rem;align-items: center;}.bh__byline_social_wrapper > * + * {margin-left: 1rem;}@media (min-width: 768px) {.bh__byline_wrapper {display: flex;}.bh__byline_social_wrapper {margin-top: 0rem;}}

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

Todayโ€™s briefing:
โ€” Why Kim Jong Un is not happy
โ€” Pepsi is investing where?!
โ€” Embassy statement of the day

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

Sponsored by:

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

Good morning Intriguer. So much of international diplomacy can be summed up by one word. That word, dear Intriguers, is โ€œopticsโ€. Call it smoke and mirrors, call it perception, call it narrative – it all boils down to the art of image management.

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

I remember the first time Iโ€™d heard the word used in a diplomatic context as a junior-burger. It went something along the lines of โ€œthink about the optics of this debacle, and whether it would pass the front-page newspaper testโ€.

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

Now, I may have just aged myself right there, referring to newspapers and all, but itโ€™s an important lesson to remember. And one which Iโ€™m sure the worldโ€™s autocrats can also learn from, as weโ€™ll see in today’s example of North Korea.

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

PS โ€” Weโ€™ll be taking a short break this Monday, but will be back in your inbox Tuesday!

Naval blues

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

In these polarised times, thereโ€™s one thing we can all agree: seeing someone fail spectacularly is objectively funny. Thatโ€™s why FailArmy, a YouTube channel of people crashing into walls, trees, the floor, and any other hard surface, has 17+ million subscribers.

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

It’s also why the news that North Koreaโ€™s new warship capsized during what was supposed to be its triumphant launch really caught our attention.ย ย 

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

You see, on Wednesday, Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un and assorted bigwigs from the ruling North Korean Workers’ Party gathered in Chongjin, a port city in the countryโ€™s north-east, to attend the launch of North Koreaโ€™s second new destroyer.ย 

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

Kim launched the firstย 5,000-tonne Choe Hyon-class destroyer less than a month earlier to great fanfare. Itโ€™s hard to be sure, but it could represent a legit leap in North Koreaโ€™s naval prowess, so a second successful launch wouldโ€™ve sealed the deal.ย 

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

But instead, under the watchful gaze of the big dog himself, the warship lost balance as the bow failed to detach from the slipway, crushing part of the hull. According to South Korean intelligence, the ship is now lying on its side in the harbourโ€™s shallows.

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

We strive for impartiality here at Intrigue, but indulge us this one chance to say lmao.

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

What went wrong?ย 

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

Hard to know for sure, but the likely factors includeโ€ฆย 

  • The Chongjin shipyard lacks a more advanced incline or dry dock, meaning the engineers had to attempt a trickier sideways launchย for the first time

  • The shipโ€™s design and weaponry meant its weight was unevenly distributed, making that first side launch attempt even more of a Hail Mary, and

  • Thereโ€™s also a general sense this whole thing was a rushed job in response to top-down pressure to advance at any cost.ย 

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

How did Kim handle this?ย 

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

Ummโ€ฆ not well. He called it a โ€œcriminal act caused by absolute carelessnessโ€, that โ€œbrought the dignity and self-respect of our state to a collapseโ€.

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

But while Kimโ€™s meltdown might elicit a chuckle, it starts to make more sense when you realise this weekโ€™s fail goes to the very core of his familyโ€™s justification for eternal rule: to protect North Koreans from a hostile world. If he canโ€™t do that, whyโ€™s he there?

Intrigueโ€™s Take

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

With dictators so dependent on complete narrative control, we couldnโ€™t help wonder why Kim allowed this broadcast at all rather than, you know, blame foreign spies, or pretend it never happened, or claim itโ€™s actually meant to be a submarine haha.

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

And as we thought through that question, the answers are kinda intriguing:

  • Domestically, he was at Chongjin with his daughter, hundreds of local elites, and thousands of obedient onlookers. So that epic fail was gonna get out into the Northโ€™s rumour mill whether his state media covered it or not. Andโ€ฆ

  • Internationally, open-source satellite players like Planet Labs and Maxar were already tracking this launch beforehand and would’ve released pics of the submerged destroyer afterwards, so likewise, we wouldโ€™ve found out either way.

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

So the question for Kim then became not whether to allow the story, but how to shape it. And his answer is clear: deflect blame to subordinates to both a) instil fear and authority, while b) protecting his own Juchist myth of infallibility, without c) triggering another international crisis he canโ€™t afford by blaming his mess-up on South Korea next-door.

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

Anyway, itโ€™s not just a reminder of the value of open-source satellite imagery, but also an opportunity for foreign intelligence agencies to recruit more of Kimโ€™s terrified engineers.

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

Sound even smarter:

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

Todayโ€™s newsletter is sponsored by The Dispatch

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

For The Silent Majority of Self-Directed Thinkers

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

Tired of partisan media cheerleading for one team? Start a better news habit and join The Dispatch.

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

Jonah Goldberg and Steve Hayes launched The Dispatch in 2019 to build an enduring presence for original reporting and thoughtful analysis that cuts through the partisan spin to deliver the facts. No insulting clickbait, no false outrage, no annoying auto-play videosโ€”just reliable journalism that prioritizes context, depth, and understanding.

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

Join half a million loyal readers and start reading The Dispatch today.

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

Meanwhile, elsewhereโ€ฆ

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธย UNITED STATES House passes Trumpโ€™s big bill.
Defying expectations, Trumpโ€™s fractious House lawmakers have united to approve changes thatโ€™ll cut taxes, immigration, and Medicaid. Now off to the Senate. (The Hill)

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

Comment:ย While Trumpโ€™s various House factions are each claiming a win, everyone also seems to acknowledge this draft package will add trillions to government deficits over the next decade. And the timing is pretty poor, becauseโ€ฆ

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต JAPAN A bond market implosion?
After decades of ultra-easy monetary policy to spur growth, Japanโ€™s sticky inflation and quiet bond auctions are pushing government yields to historic highs. (FT $)

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

Comment:ย Itโ€™s partly due to technical drivers (new insurer solvency ratios), but also doubts around Japanโ€™s longer-term fiscal trajectory. Either way, we may see Japanese investors bring their vast piles of cash back home in search of more attractive returns, meaning even lower demand for (and therefore even higher yields on) US debt.

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฟ KAZAKHSTAN PepsiCo doubles down on Kazakh snacks.
PepsiCo is allotting another $320M to triple output at a local snack plant it hopes will become the firmโ€™s hub for broader Central Asia. (Times of Central Asia)

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

Comment:ย PepsiCo is one of the larger US firms still operating in Russia, though it seems to have adjusted its operations in response to public pressure. So Central Asia is the natural choice as a hedge: pursue opportunities in these growing markets, with solid freight links into neighbouring Russia and China if/when things improve. For any less reputable executives looking to skirt sanctions and tariffs, we hear thereโ€™s no shortage of local warehouses willing to relabel your widget as made in Almaty.

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท FRANCE French billionaire defies Macronโ€™s call to halt US investments. Bernard Arnault (the luxury magnate worth a cool $150B) has pushed back on the French presidentโ€™s calls to freeze investments in the US after Trumpโ€™s 20% tariffs, arguing it’s โ€œvery badโ€ for the state to meddle in private business affairs. (Politico)

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

Comment:ย Aย tricky balance for Arnault, with close ties to both Macron and Trump (he even scored a prime seat at the Trump 2.0 inauguration). Still, any sanctity of Arnaultโ€™s public/private rule didnโ€™t stop him allegedly nixing a high-tax coalition emerging from Franceโ€™s political chaos last year.

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ญย PHILIPPINES President ditches cabinet after lousy midterms.
Following last weekโ€™s underwhelming midterm result, President Marcos Jr has called on his cabinet to resign after candidates loyal to his arch-rival and predecessor did surprisingly well (Duterte himself is facing trial in The Hague). (Straits Times)

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ UNITED STATES Trump ends Harvardโ€™s international students.
The Department of Homeland Security has announced Harvard can no longer enrol international students, with current enrollees required to transfer elsewhere. The Trump administration argues Harvard has created an anti-American atmosphere and coordinated with Chinaโ€™s Communist Party. (Harvard Crimson)

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

Comment:ย Our WhatsApp group has been firing on this topic (plus Japanโ€™s bond market implosion above), exploring possible political, economic, and strategic drivers (not to mention the imminent lawsuits). Join the chat by sharing Intrigue with five or more friends using your unique referral link.

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡บย MAURITIUS UK signs deal to hand Chagos Islands to Mauritius.
The deal with Mauritius enables London to keep using the secretive UK-US Diego Garcia base on a ~$136M annual lease, ending initial speculation Trump 2.0 might seek to overturn the deal. (BBC)

Extra Intrigue

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

Need a fun fact for your Saturday dinner & drinks?

From our friends

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

Read by decision-makers. Curated for changemakers. Foreign Affairs delivers insightful, authoritative analysis from global leaders in policy, business, science, and technology. From Washington to Beijing, it’s the trusted source for analysis that drives real-world decisions.ย Subscribe to Foreign Affairs today to get an insider look on todayโ€™s most important debates.ย 

Embassy statement of the day

Credits: UK Embassy in Washington

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

The above classic text builds on a long-running US-UK embassy feud about how to brew the perfect tea โ€” the US embassy in London, for example, weighed in last year after a US professor famously argued that the ultimate โ€˜cuppaโ€™ requires a dash of, ummโ€ฆ salt?

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

Okay sure, salt in tea is a flagrant violation of human rights law, but these jovial exchanges are a low-lift way to remind citizens that, behind the flags and uniforms, there is real fraternity underpinning todayโ€™s alliances.

Friday quiz

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

Yesterday was International Day for Biological Diversity!

1) How many species now live on Earth?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

2) How much have wildlife populations shrunk since 1970?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }

3) Which category makes up 80% of the world’s biomass?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.