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Today’s briefing: |
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Sponsored by:  |
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Good morning Intriguer. Today’s top story on global demographics is one that’s close to my heart. Why?
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Well, I was born in China during the country’s grand experiment with the ‘One Child Policy’ to rein in population growth back in the 1980s, which resulted in a whole generation of only-children (aka ‘little emperors’).
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I’ve also been thinking a lot about declining birth rates recently, because I’ve just started on the IVF journey. Here’s a shoutout to all our readers who might be on a fertility journey and to the wonders of modern science.
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PS – Will you be in New York the evening of Monday June 23rd? Join us for Intrigue drinks with special guests, hosted by the Czech ambassador to the UN! RSVP here.
Natality notions
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Why are a bunch of ex-diplomats talking about babies and birth rates?
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Sure, it’s like a mango sorbet palate-cleanser amid all the war and rumours of war. But natality is also one of those slow-moving forces that can completely transform our world.
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How? Last century, the dominant narrative was that populations were too big, with leaders in China, Vietnam and elsewhere limiting family sizes in an attempt to tap the demographic brakes. Why? The theory (for some) was that overpopulation would…
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Strain limited resources of food, water, and energy
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Cause poverty by swamping job markets and infrastructure
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Fry environments by fuelling pollution and deforestation, and all that would…
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Spark overcrowding, crime, and unrest, in turn straining government responses.
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But that demographic pendulum is now swinging in the opposite direction, with capitals now scrambling to offer cash payments, tax breaks, blind dating events (seriously) and even free honeymoons in an attempt to crank out those babies again.
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Why? The theory (again, for some) is that higher birth rates will…
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Stabilise economies by maintaining workforces and tax bases
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Rejuvenate ageing demographics that can strain social security systems
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Preserve cultural identities, and
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Restore national strength (military recruitment, economic output, and optimism)
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So with all that in mind, we poured ourselves the world’s largest coffee and read all 100+ pages of the latest ‘State of the World Population’ report, surveying 14,000 adults across 14 countries (🇧🇷, 🇩🇪, 🇭🇺, 🇮🇳, 🇮🇩, 🇮🇹, 🇲🇽, 🇲🇦, 🇳🇬, 🇿🇦, 🇰🇷, 🇸🇪, 🇹🇭, 🇺🇸), home to ~37% of the world’s people. And sure, we’ve now got the coffee jitters, but totally worth it because…
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Here are four of the report’s most intriguing stats:
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39%
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That’s how many folks said ‘financial limitations’ were a factor in having fewer children. Coming in at second was job insecurity at 21% followed by housing at 19%. But of course, these are all economic barriers, jointly accounting for more than half of all responses.
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14%
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This one kinda surprised us tbh, because it’s how many people flagged political and social risks (including possible wars or pandemics) as a reason to have fewer kids. It’s almost like the opposite of the post-WWII baby boom, with gloom now tapping those baby brakes rather than any glee smashing that accelerator.
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31%
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That’s how many participants over 50 said they had ended up having fewer kids than ideal, versus just 11% for those under 50. That gap could reflect lots of things: shifts in attitudes, more enabling environments, or even just younger folks feeling they have time to hit their ideal number. But it could also reflect a real gap between desired and actual family size, and a ‘window of opportunity’ for concerned governments.
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Two
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That’s the ‘magic number’ when it comes to kids, according to a plurality of respondents (~36%), followed by three children (15%), one (~10%), and then 4+ (~10%).
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Those results are interesting for a couple of reasons: first, two is just below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman and below the current global birth rate of 2.3. But second, it’s above the current birth rate for nine out of the 14 surveyed countries.
Intrigue’s Take
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This is one of those issues where there is a clear link between vast, historic, geopolitical forces, and deeply personal decisions shaped by strongly-held worldviews. But allow us to offer a few thoughts on something a little lighter like, ahem… the nature of mankind:
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We’re complex beings: China’s four-decade ‘one child policy’ experiment and subsequent reversal from 2015 all suggests states can indeed suppress birth rates, but as for ramping them back up? Not so easy, pal. It seems our parallel norms, attitudes, and economic drivers are generational. But…
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We’re also such simple beings: one of the clearest messages from this latest report is that if it wasn’t so pricey to (say) buy a pad or throw a few steaks on the grill, plenty of folks would be going full Brady Bunch right now.
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So this report is about a lot of things, but it’s also really about the economy, stupid.
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Overheard in the Intrigue chat:
(free to join if you refer 5 friends using your unique code!)
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“It’ll be interesting to see how advanced economies will contend with their growing need for immigration as a way to boost their population, and a growing anti-immigration sentiment” -A.P.J
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“I refuse to engage with the research until someone does proper peer-reviewed analysis into the obvious correlation between global fertility decline and World of Warcraft coming out in 2004/5” -D.G
Today’s newsletter is sponsored by Growth School
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Your Exclusive Invite for the World’s first 2 day AI Challenge (usually $895, but $0 today)
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51% of companies have started using AI. Tech giants have cut over 53,000 jobs in 2025 itself. And 40% of professionals fear that AI will take away their job.
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But here’s the real picture — companies aren’t simply eliminating roles, they’re hiring people who are AI-skilled, understand AI, can use AI & even build with AI.
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Join the online 2-Day LIVE AI Mastermind by Outskill – a hands-on bootcamp designed to make you an AI-powered professional in just 16 hours.
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All by global experts from companies like Amazon, Microsoft, SamurAI and more. And it’s ALL. FOR. FREE.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
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🇨🇳 CHINA – China ditches its rare earth curbs. |
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🇫🇯 FIJI – Trouble in paradise? p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment: Fiji has had four coups since independence, so there’s often a slow simmer of speculation, but we’re hearing this week’s political and constitutional intrigue has flared that fear up again, just as the US and China compete for local influence. |
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🇦🇿 AZERBAIJAN – Gas galore. p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment: The Azerbaijanis are kinda picking up where the Russians left off, and they’re using their own pipeline across the Caspian to do so. But that won’t silence the whispers around why Baku’s gas imports from Russia have spiked while simultaneously exporting to Europe. |
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🇬🇧 UNITED KINGDOM – Big new sanctions. p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment: We’ve previously flagged that a Trump-Bibi rift might’ve meant Western capitals could criticise Israel with less likelihood of US pushback. But while Trump and Bibi do indeed seem to be at odds right now, US Secretary of State Rubio has just condemned these US allies, reminding them “not to forget who the real enemy is.” |
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🇳🇿 NEW ZEALAND – Environmental lawyers have entered the chat. |
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🇲🇽 MEXICO – An easy $10M? p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment: His sons used to have a big social media presence, flaunting their wealth and taunting authorities by blurring out geolocation clues. But geolocation has gotten better, the Guzman family’s fortunes have gotten worse, and these two sons have now long since gone dark online (one is rumoured to be leading a new cartel alliance). |
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🇿🇦 SOUTH AFRICA – Brrr. |
Extra Intrigue
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The Intrigue jobs board 💼
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Country Director, Eastern Caribbean @ TBI in the Caribbean
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Public Policy Advisor @ Discord in the US (remote)
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Communications Manager @ Natural Resources Defense Council in Beijing
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Policy Interns @ AmCham in Brussels
From our sponsors
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Rewind to the 1990s with a new limited series from the Institute for Global Affairs at Eurasia Group. Join us as we dive into the decade’s most pivotal moments, from failed democracy in Russia to China’s economic rise, and much more. To catch all 10 episodes, check out None Of The Above wherever you listen to podcasts! |
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Meal of the day
Credits: Brigitte
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Take a good look at the dish above. Is that spaghetti with a side of strawberries?! Nope. It’s ice cream! Or Spaghettieis, to be exact — a beloved dish for summer-lovin’ Germans.
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Back in ‘69, a son of Italian immigrants in Mannheim decided to shove some vanilla ice cream through a potato ricer, slapped on some strawberry sauce, and topped it all with white chocolate flakes. Legend has it, the first kids to try it actually cried (and not with joy).
Today’s poll
Do you think a declining birth rate is a national crisis? |
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Yesterday’s poll: Where do you think the Russian internal intel report came from?
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💻 A cybercrime hack (17%)
🇷🇺 A disgruntled Russian insider (36%)
💼 A Western intelligence agency (45%)
✍️ Other (write us!) (1%)