China’s exports plunge


Briefly: China’s exports fell by 7.5% in May compared to the same period last year, a much larger decline than the 1.8% contraction expected by economists.

On the other handimports only fell by 4.5% instead of the projected 8%. Taken together, these signals suggest:

  • 🇨🇳 China is still recovering, and hoovering up what the world sells, but
  • 🌏 The shaky global economic outlook may be tapping its brakes.

And given China’s export sector accounts for ~20% of its GDP, this risks being more of a handbrake than a lil’ tap.

The broader data coming out of China is pretty mixed, too:

  • 🏭 Manufacturing contracted in May
  • 🏠 Home sales are still rising but at a slower pace than earlier this year
  • 🧳Dining and travel spending is up, but still at pre-COVID levels, and
  • 🧢 Urban unemployment fell overall, but rose among 16-24 year-olds

So there are real questions around the strength of China’s recovery.

Intrigue’s take: Context is key, particularly when looking at monthly data.

First, look at the timeframe: this latest data compares to last year, so… what was happening then? China was bouncing out of COVID, and its trade stats were notably higher.

Second, look at prices: sure, the data says imports are down, but that may be because China is paying lessfor many key imports (like commodities and chips).

And third, look around: exports also fell in South Korea (15.2%), Vietnam (6%) and elsewhere, reflecting a broader global slowdown.

So the big picture here may be better for China than it seems. And yet… with China’s system being so opaque, few things are ever as they seem.

Also worth noting:

  • China’s stats bureau will release more data on June 15. The Politburo, the Communist Party’s top body, is expected to meet in late July and announce any policy responses to this latest data.
  • China’s car exports hit a new record in May, as the country overtook Japan to become the world’s largest exporter. Around 60% of China’s EV exports to Europe are deliveries for Western brands.
Latest Author Articles
Another coup in Thailand?

You’re chatting away on the phone after a crappy few weeks at work: yep, Jenny from accounts is at it again, and don’t even get us started on Barry from marketing. So you vent, throw a little shade, maybe sprinkle in some spice — it’s a private call. You do you, right? Wrong.  Thailand’s prime […]

2 July, 2025
Why the world is having fewer babies

Why are a bunch of ex-diplomats talking about babies and birth rates? Sure, it’s like a mango sorbet palate-cleanser amid all the war and rumours of war. But natality is also one of those slow-moving forces that can completely transform our world. How? Last century, the dominant narrative was that populations were too big, with leaders in China, Vietnam […]

11 June, 2025
Xi and Trump talk for the first time

Sometimes, the shortest press releases generate the most headlines.   Take Thursday’s press release from China’s state broadcaster: “Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday held phone talks with U.S. President Donald Trump at the latter’s request.”  As you’d expect, given the feverish geopolitical climate of today, those 18 words were enough to trigger a visceral reaction in any US-China […]

6 June, 2025
Meet South Korea’s new president

It’s been a tumultuous six months for South Korea. One failed martial law declaration, one impeachment, and three acting presidents later, and South Koreans finally have a permanent president again. Opposition candidate Lee Jae-myung from the left-leaning Democratic Party of Korea won yesterday’s election with 49% of the vote, defeating Kim Moon-soo from the ruling People […]

4 June, 2025