Conclave: the top contenders

As the sun rises over the Eternal City tomorrow (Wednesday), 133 cardinals from 71 countries will shuffle into the Michelangelo-painted Sistine Chapel to elect the next pope.

They’ll be cut off from the outside, voting once in the afternoon of 7 May and then twice each morning and afternoon thereafter until a two-thirds majority elects the next pope.

The whole thing can last days (shout-out to the two cardinals who’ve already called in sick), but statistically speaking, weshould have a new pope this week. 

So, who are the front-runners to lead the world’s smallest sovereign state and largest single religious institution? Let’s run a quick breakdown by region:

1. Europe 

The ‘Old Continent’ is home to the largest number of eligible cardinals, dubbed ‘papabile’ (Italian for ‘pope-able’). And while the Vatican has the world’s highest per-capita number of Bloomberg terminals, they’re eligible more in the ‘theological’ and ‘leadership’ sense:

• Pietro Parolin: he’s secretary of state (second in charge), so an obvious frontrunner, though this has its downsides (ask Hillary). He’s also copped flak for “selling out” China’s Catholics via the 2018 deal that empowered the Communist Party to appoint local bishops (with the pope relegated to a veto).
• Pierbattista Pizzaballa: relatively young at 60, he was always destined for buzz with a name like that. Say it out loud, and you’ll be transported back to that time you fell in love while strolling Cinque Terre. Fluent in Hebrew (though not Arabic), he’s Patriarch of Jerusalem and has focused on interfaith dialogue, the plight of Christians, and de-escalation (he offered to swap himself for the Hamas hostages).

2. Africa 

A New York archbishop once quipped he needed an atlas every time Pope Francis appointed a new cardinal, including firsts in places like Cape Verde. 

• Fridolin Ambongo Besungu is the continent’s frontrunner, serving as archbishop of Kinshasa (Congo) and gaining a global profile for his fierce criticism of corruption and mining, while maintaining a traditional streak on social issues.

One way or another, he’s seen as a kingmaker (14% of the votes now hail from Africa).

3. Asia 

• Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle has his own YouTube show plus relatively youthful vibes, earning the ‘Asian Francis’ nickname for his modern approach, though this might’ve alienated some of the more old-school types he’ll need to win over.

And yes, there are also ‘papabiles’ from the Americas and Oceania, but none seem to be gaining any traction. If one ends up pope, Intrigue will buy you a drink some time.

Intrigue’s Take

If you haven’t seen the films Two Popes or Conclave, they get the coveted Intrigue rubber stamp of approval, which is something we just made up. They’re surprisingly thoughtful and at times profound films exploring themes the West too often avoids.

But why cover any of this? We’ll answer that with some quotes from the films themselves:

• “Truth may be vital, but without love, it is unbearable” (Two Popes)

A Vatican diplomat once quipped that while most embassies focus on interests, the Vatican’s nunciatures (embassies) focus on values (notwithstanding the church’s sins). That means they pop up in some surprising places, and can carry some surprising influence.

• “They say eavesdroppers can use lasers to read the vibrations of the glass” (Conclave)

This line is a passing nod to the counterespionage measures the Vatican (like every other state) must take to keep its deliberations secret. And yes, you can bet spooks will track this process closely for any insight into how this ancient body might harm their interests.

• “Certainty is the great enemy of unity” (Conclave)

As social, political, and technological forces accelerate, we see a world that’s in many ways getting less certain, not more. And that’ll grant the Vatican (and other traditional sources of influence) more influence, not less.

Sound even smarter:

• Other names doing the rounds include Matteo Zuppi (a top Vatican diplomat), Hungary’s Peter Erdo (who famously defied the Soviets), and France’s Jean-Marc Aveline (a media favourite due to his striking resemblance to a beloved ex-pope).