Did Turkey just make peace with its arch-enemy?

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, fresh off a string of diplomatic wins, just stepped up to the mic with a speech (🇹🇷) leaving even the most diligent of listeners winded. From reminding Europe about Turkey’s long-stalled EU bid, to lecturing Israel on its regional moves, Erdogan really had a spring in his step.

And that’s no surprise given Erdogan might now be resolving Turkey’s longest-running conflict: the Kurdish question.

Here’s what you need to know. 

Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), issued an historic order last Thursday calling on the group he founded to disband and disarm.

Just to clarify the magnitude of this call — the PKK has been fighting for what it’s variously described as more Kurdish autonomy for half a century, and Öcalan himself has been jailed on Imrali Island (off Istanbul) over treason charges since 1999. Turkey and several of its allies (including the US) have long listed the PKK as a terrorist organisation.

And sure, Öcalan has pushed for truces before, but this is the first time he’s explicitly called for the PKK to dissolve itself. You’ll forgive us for our ultra-flawed choice of analogy for illustrative purposes, but we would’ve been less startled if Ronald McDonald disbanded the Golden Arches.

It all started in October…

That’s when one of Erdogan’s ultra-nationalist allies shook hands with pro-Kurdish lawmakers in parliament, and really set rumours running that something was up.

But then a PKK attack on an arms manufacturer in Ankara flipped the table at home, and Assad’s ouster in neighbouring Syria (with its own large Kurdish presence) flipped the table for the broader region. And yet somehow, quiet talks continued, with pro-Kurdish figures generating more headlines when they visited the jailed Öcalan in January.

Then on Thursday, his emissaries emerged from another prison visit and read Öcalan’s historic 1.5-page statement aloud, broadcast live across the country. His key points?

• The PKK was born out of Turkey’s initial “denial of Kurdish reality”, but Turkey has since taken democratic steps to address those grievances, and so
• “All groups” (possibly including PKK offshoots across the region) must dissolve.

So, why now?

• Time: Ankara has hounded the group since the 80s, weakening a) its capabilities, b) its motivation, and therefore c) its ability to carve a Kurdish state out of Turkey
• Pressure: Ankara’s advanced drone and surveillance developments have isolated PKK cells in northern Iraq’s mountains, cutting off key supply routes, and
• Alliances: While neighbouring Kurdish groups like the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have enjoyed US backing against ISIS, recent US moves to pull back have limited a key source of international support for the Kurds.

So, will the PKK disband?

There are still generations of bad blood at play here, while Turkey’s pressure has contributed to PKK’s splintering into factions that may not all now agree to disband. Meanwhile, it’s also unclear what exactly the PKK leaders get in return.

And… why does this matter to anyone else?

For Europe… Intriguers will recall that when Sweden wanted to join NATO after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Erdogan tapped the brakes due to Sweden protecting certain Kurds.

But if these Turkish-Kurdish fundamentals improve, that source of leverage for Turkey could dry up, with Ankara instead focusing on supplying Europe’s defence ramp-up (in his same speech above, he described European security without Turkey as “unimaginable”).

For Washington… With the PKK potentially folding and the US-backed SDF weakened, Erdogan gets to rewrite the narrative. And while Europe and the US can grumble about his authoritarian vibes, they’ll still need him to run point in Syria, curb irregular immigration, and act as a bulwark against broader regional instability.

As for Erdogan himself?

Erdogan has kept a relatively low profile on this, letting his nationalist allies and state media do the heavy lifting. And of course, there are sceptics in both his and the PKK’s hardliner camps. But for now, Erdogan holds the cards, and might be on the cusp of achieving something his predecessors only dreamed of, while leaving behind a key source of criticism against Turkey generally and Erdogan specifically.

With all that at stake, it’s only a matter of time until Erdogan emerges to claim full credit.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

Of course, it’s not all Efes beer and baklava for Erdogan.

• The Turkish lira keeps sliding, putting pressure on his popular support
• Arguably Turkey’s most popular journalist (Nevşin Mengü) just got slapped with a suspended jail sentence for merely interviewing a Kurdish leader, and
• Abroad, Israel is pushing Syria to stop the Turks from building more bases.

And yet still, no one at home realistically dares to say anything. That all contributes to an information space where it’s hard to really tell how folks feel about this possible historic moment with the PKK, and whether it’ll deliver the domestic win Erdogan wants.

Also worth noting:

• Elected political leaders on both sides of the aisle, remain charged, detained or jailed in Turkey.