Fighting in Sudan blasts through shaky ceasefires


Briefly: A third attempted ceasefire in Sudan crumbled last night (Wednesday), as the warring Sudanese military and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) accused one another of breaching the US-brokered truces.

Who’s gaining the upper hand?

  • The military now controls access to Khartoum, cutting off RSF units inside
  • It repelled RSF attacks on its HQ yesterday, and retook a key airbase
  • It’s now bombarding the suburb where RSF chief ‘Hemedti’ owns homes
  • And the RSF is appealing for international help

On balance, the above suggests things aren’t going well for the RSF, which is similar in size to the military (100,000 soldiers) but lacks heavy arms and intel.

In parallel, a joint statement by 14 embassies in Khartoum (one of Africa’s largest cities) said more than 270 civilians had died, with food and medical supplies dwindling. And the impacts are becoming regional and global:

Intrigue’s take: It seems unlikely either faction can ‘win’ outright at this point. And even if one side managed to vanquish the other, it wouldn’t be able to rule Africa’s third largest country alone. Both factions lack a political base, and have lost legitimacy after their joint 2021 coup plus the current unfolding catastrophe.

So some kind of stalemate is most likely. And that might explain why the US is preparing a sanctions package against both factions (pressuring them to negotiate), while African leaders are preparing a visit to mediate.

Also worth noting:

  • While Hemedti accused the military of breaching international law this week, he was himself once accused by the ICC of “indiscriminate and disproportionate attacks against civilians” in Darfur.
  • Russian mercenary outfit Wagner has issued a statement denying any involvement in Sudan, following various reports to the contrary.
  • The neighbouring country of South Sudan exports most of its oil through Sudan, which is a key regional oil hub.
Latest Author Articles
COP28 off to a solid start

Just as our co-founder Helen sets foot in Dubai, there’s a major breakthrough: after months of negotiations, nearly 200 nations have agreed on how to run a ‘loss and damage fund’ to help poorer countries weather the impacts of a changing climate.

1 December, 2023
India prepares to build a third aircraft carrier

India is set to add a third aircraft carrier worth $5B to its fleet, with its Defense Acquisition Council likely to clear the deal on Friday, according to Bloomberg.

29 November, 2023
North Korea scraps key military pact with the South

Following the launch of North Korea’s first spy satellite on Tuesday night, and South Korea’s resumption of border surveillance in response, the North scrapped a key military pact between the two neighbours yesterday (Thursday).

24 November, 2023
Did India try to assassinate a US citizen on US soil?

The US has thwarted a plot to assassinate a Sikh activist on American soil, and issued a warning to India over its possible involvement, according to the Financial Times.

23 November, 2023