In this week’s Election Intrigue podcast, John and Kristen discuss how a potential Kamala Harris administration would approach foreign policy. Listen below or subscribe to the podcast.
Vice President Kamala Harris has been the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee for a whopping… checks notes… five days. We weren’t alive in 1968 when President Lyndon Johnson chose not to run again, but from the accounts of those closest to Johnson, it was a more orderly process.
People inside the Democratic Party machine suggest that Joe Biden remains pretty salty about being “forced” out. Jill Biden’s public thanks on Twitter/X “to those who never wavered, to those who refused to doubt” suggests that to be the case, but perhaps we’re reading too much into a nice thank you note…
Stay on top of your world from inside your inbox.
Subscribe for free today and receive way much more insights.
Trusted by 119,000+ subscribers
No spam. No noise. Unsubscribe any time.
So what to make of Kamala Harris? Even though she’s been Vice President for nearly four years, her views on foreign policy aren’t widely known. That’s partly because, much like children during the Victorian era, the job of the vice president is to be seen and not heard.
Of course, diplomats worth their salt will already have strong relationships within the Vice President’s office—particularly with Philip Gordon, her National Security Advisor (NSA). Word on the DC streets is he’ll replace current NSA Jake Sullivan if Harris is elected.
So we spent the week talking to diplomats, journalists and other political types this week to get a sense of how they think a Harris administration would differ from a second Biden or Trump administration.
A summary of our conversation:
- Our contacts unanimously agreed that President Biden’s withdrawal means the election is once again competitive.The ~$130M raised by Harris since Biden withdrew is strong evidence that Trump has a real race on his hands. It’s only been five days, but her energy and presence on the campaign trail have been noticeable, particularly in contrast to President Biden.
- We discussed the Vice President’s foreign policy experience and what she might do if elected. We got a glimpse of how she views the Israel-Gaza conflict on Thursday, simultaneously condemning the pro-Palestine (and at times pro-Hamas) protests in Washington D.C while telling Benjamin Netanyahu “it is time for this war to end” and that she wouldn’t be silent about the “scale of human suffering in Gaza.” In our opinion, she offered the clearest summary of how the US people view the conflict: “Israel has the right to defend itself, but how it does so matters”. Trump also seems to have adopted this position, signaling he’ll tell Netanyahu to “end the war in Gaza soon” when they meet at Mar-a-Lago today.
- The reaction from global capitals has so far been muted. Foreign leaders are in a difficult spot — they have a sitting president they must deal with (Biden), a potential president they’d like to forge relations with (Harris), and an ex-president who is still the betting market’s favorite to become president again (Trump). We think Moscow would still prefer a Trump administration but might see a chance to influence Harris to their benefit, while Beijing might prefer Harris for her potentially more negotiable stance towards US-China relations.
- Beyond that, we think Harris’s foreign policy will essentially follow Biden’s. On questions like NATO, military aid to Ukraine, and America’s role in the world more generally, we’d be shocked if she made big changes before November. If elected, our contacts suggest she will replace the senior foreign policy leadership, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. If she does, that would be the clearest signal she wants to break from President Biden’s foreign policy.
- Lastly, even if you are a die-hard Democrat and love Kamala Harris, you’d have to admit the mainstream media’s portrayal of her candidacy this week has been nothing short of hagiographic. We discussed whether that’s likely to change, how former President Trump might react, and where we think the presidential race is at now. We all know Kamala Harris can win, but will she?
Listen to the full conversation in your browser by using the audio player above, or by subscribing to our podcast feed below. You can find a full, unedited transcript of our conversation here.
