Finland eyes Chinese ship in pipeline probe


Finnish authorities say they’re investigating a Hong Kong-flagged vessel in connection with this month’s suspected sabotage of a gas pipeline and data cable in the Gulf of Finland.

Here’s what happened. 

On 8 October, authorities registered a leak in the 77km Balticconnector gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia. It now remains offline for months of repairs, leaving Finland to rely on LNG shipments instead.

Finnish authorities say they believe the damage was caused by “an external mechanical force”, and they’re looking into two vessels that were in the pipeline’s vicinity that night:

  1. 🇨🇳 The NewNew Polar Bear*, a Chinese cargo ship travelling between Russia and China, whose movements “​​coincide with the time and place of the gas pipeline damage”, and
  2. 🇷🇺 The Sevmorput, one of Russia’s four nuclear-powered merchant ships, now operated by a Russian state-owned energy company.

For their part, both China and Russia deny any role.

And of course, there’s a less intriguing possibility: a rogue anchor might’ve caused this, accidentally or otherwise. It’d fit reports that an object (not a blast) was at fault, and that an “extremely heavy object” was found nearby.

Intrigue’s take: It’d be surprising for China to have played a deliberate role in an incident so far from its turf, particularly using a ship that the world was already watching so closely (the NewNew Polar Bear just became the first regular vessel to reach Kaliningrad via the Northern Sea Route).

Either way, this whole saga reminds us of five things:

  • First, undersea infrastructure is more critical today than ever
  • Second, it’s also more vulnerable than ever
  • Third, grey zone tactics are becoming more common (i.e., inflicting damage without crossing the threshold of armed conflict)
  • Fourth, this all makes attribution both high-stakes and hard, and
  • Fifth, this all in turn makes the democratic preference for transparent investigations one heck of a delicate balancing act.

Also worth noting:

Latest Author Articles
Why the world is having fewer babies

Why are a bunch of ex-diplomats talking about babies and birth rates? Sure, it’s like a mango sorbet palate-cleanser amid all the war and rumours of war. But natality is also one of those slow-moving forces that can completely transform our world. How? Last century, the dominant narrative was that populations were too big, with leaders in China, Vietnam […]

11 June, 2025
Xi and Trump talk for the first time

Sometimes, the shortest press releases generate the most headlines.   Take Thursday’s press release from China’s state broadcaster: “Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday held phone talks with U.S. President Donald Trump at the latter’s request.”  As you’d expect, given the feverish geopolitical climate of today, those 18 words were enough to trigger a visceral reaction in any US-China […]

6 June, 2025
Meet South Korea’s new president

It’s been a tumultuous six months for South Korea. One failed martial law declaration, one impeachment, and three acting presidents later, and South Koreans finally have a permanent president again. Opposition candidate Lee Jae-myung from the left-leaning Democratic Party of Korea won yesterday’s election with 49% of the vote, defeating Kim Moon-soo from the ruling People […]

4 June, 2025
The five spiciest quotes from this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue

It’s finally June, and you know what that means! Summer’s The Shangri-La Dialogue is finally back, bringing together generals, leaders, security folks, and academics from 47 countries.  Here are five of the most intriguing quotes from this year’s summit:   In keeping with the tone of Trump 2.0, Hegseth’s keynote speech was anything but low-key.  Stay on top […]

2 June, 2025