Five of Trump’s biggest executive actions

Within hours of taking the oath again, Donald Trump was back in the Oval Office signing dozens of executive actions while answering free-wheeling questions from the press.

The sheer volume at play here reminds us of that Simpsons moment where Mr Burns somehow contracts every illness known to man but they all cancel each other out — ie, there’s so much change happening at once, it can almost feel like there’s none at all.

Anyway, the Library of Congress has a handy guide on executive orders, proclamations, and memoranda, but they’re basically powerful tools the president can use to drive change without congressional approval — they’re common but sometimes controversial.

So here are five of the biggest internationally-focused actions Donald Trump has taken so far, and how they might shape the world around us: 

1. Implementing an America First foreign and trade policy 

The new president has now decreed that “the foreign policy of the United States shall champion core American interests and always put America and American citizens first.” He leaves the details to his new secretary of state (Rubio), but he’s basically reiterating what he’s said for years: where an international arrangement doesn’t work for the US, ditch it.

That idea spooked US allies during Trump 1.0, so his first team started nuancing it behind closed doors with lines like “don’t worry — America First doesn’t mean America Alone”. You can bet allies will be looking for similar assurances this time around. You can also bet they’ll have noticed the absence of any reference to US values (often tied to interests).

Anyway, Trump has also now issued a memorandum pledging a trade policy that “defends our economic and national security, and — above all — benefits American workers, manufacturers, farmers, ranchers, entrepreneurs, and businesses”. 

Here the picture is a little clearer, and even familiar — Biden officials used similar language. But when it comes to specific next steps, Trump now wants to:

• a) Cut the US trade deficit (which likely points to a broader imbalance with China)
• b) Tackle any unfair trade practices by major US trade partners like China, and
• c) Establish an external revenue service (ERS) to collect tariffs (that ERS branding reflects Trump’s argument that tariffs will only hit foreigners, unlike the IRS).

2. Withdrawing from the WHO and Paris Agreement 

No surprises here, but let’s look at why — first, there’s Trump’s scepticism towards the Paris Agreement, a binding but voluntarily-enforced pledge to limit the average global temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (we hit 1.6°C last year).

His concern is partly that voluntarily cutting emissions is a raw deal for the US when (for example) China has been home to 90% of global emissions growth since 2015 (it’s also building two thirds of the world’s new solar and wind). But leaving aside the Paris politics (Trump 1.0 withdrew, Biden re-entered), the US energy transition seemingly now has its own profit-driven momentum — emissions are dropping while the economy hums.

As for his frustration with the World Health Organisation (WHO)? It’s the body’s “inability to demonstrate independence from the inappropriate political influence of WHO member states” — i.e., China’s delayed and opaque response to Covid.

It’s not clear who (if anyone) might fill the resulting WHO funding gap, though the German health minister has flagged his hopes Trump might reconsider — the WHO is meant to be America’s (and the world’s) first line of pandemic defence.

3. Designating drug cartels as terrorists 

As pledged, Trump has now ordered the designation of drug cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations on par with groups like ISIS and Hezbollah. 

While cartels don’t usually have a defining political or ideological agenda (required in many legal definitions of a terrorist group), their terrorist designation gives US agencies more tools to go after them — like hitting anyone providing “material support”.

But while past presidents (like Obama) have mulled this same move, they’ve ultimately left it on the drawing board for a few reasons:

• a) It rattles Mexico, a top trade partner that’s faced US military action in the past
• b) It might have unexpected impacts on business ties (eg via insurance risk), and
• c) It might not work — Mexico’s own past military-led strategy arguably just ended up unleashing more cartel violence while US drug consumption kept rising.

Still, Trump 2.0 has clearly determined it’s now worth the risk.

4. Pulling out of the OECD’s Global Tax Deal

The 2021 Global Tax Deal applies a minimum 15% corporate tax rate across the ~38 members of the OECD (the Paris-based club of rich nations) plus ~100 others. The idea is to stop multinationals from pushing cash-strapped capitals into a tax race to the bottom.

But Trump 1.0 already introduced a ~10% global minimum tax in 2017, and he sees the OECD’s extra 5% as a foreign tax grab on US profits. So his memorandum clarifies that the OECD pact has no standing in the US. Of course, it still stands elsewhere, so his decree warns of retaliation against any foreign tax-collectors disproportionately targeting US firms.

5. Halting foreign aid for 90 days 

Finally, Trump has also ordered an immediate 90-day pause on “development assistance funds” (rather than US security assistance to partners like Israel, Taiwan, and Ukraine). Why? So a review can ensure they’re “fully aligned with the foreign policy of the President”.

Lots of US aid has already been disbursed at this stage of the US electoral and financial cycle, and obvious targets like the UN Palestinian agency have already lost their US funding.

So what does this pause mean? That’s up to Marco Rubio, who told his confirmation hearing he wants US aid to make America a) safer, b) stronger, and c) more prosperous.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

Love it or hate it, none of the above is really surprising. Trump campaigned (and won) on disrupting the status quo. Most of it will now come down to the details, and the world knows his fondness for making deals.

But zooming out, the common thread across it all is the US now moving (again) away from multilateral efforts towards more plurilateral, bilateral, and unilateral moves. And realistically, that’s going to involve trade-offs: sure there’ll be results Trump can chalk up as wins. But there’ll also be vacuums abroad that rivals might now seek to fill.

Also worth noting:

• Trump has also rescinded 78 of Biden’s executive actions so far.
• The US is by far the world’s top aid donor in nominal terms, investing $68B in the 2023 fiscal year. It’s also the world’s single largest source of private philanthropy, totalling $560B across both domestic and foreign recipients.