As a polar vortex swept across America’s east coast, a sized-down audience shifted indoors for the first presidential inauguration in the Capitol Rotunda since Reagan.
That’s where Trump then gave his inaugural address, featuring five lines that could offer a glimpse into his intended approach to the rest of the world. So let’s dive in —
- “The United States will once again consider itself a growing nation — one that increases our wealth, expands our territory, builds our cities, raises our expectations, andcarries our flag into new and beautiful horizons”
That expansionist line is the bit that’s now echoing through a few foreign capitals, coming after Trump’s recent musings on Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal.
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But it was only Panama that then got a specific mention, with Trump warning that “China is operating the Panama Canal. And we didn’t give it to China. We gave it to Panama, and we’re taking it back.” He’s likely referring to the Hong Kong-based firm (Hutchison) managing the ports that serve as the canal’s entry and exit — in 2021, Panama extended Hutchison’s lease until 2047 despite Western unease about the firm’s ties to Beijing.
It’s unclear what Trump means by taking the canal back, but there are clues from Trump 1.0 when the US pressured Panama to block construction of China’s new embassy overlooking the canal — i.e., maybe we’ll see US pressure on Panama to unwind Hutchison’s role under the guise of upholding the canal’s neutrality.
- “We have a government that has given unlimited funding to the defense of foreign borders but refuses to defend American borders“
A twofer: Trump is referring here both to Biden’s support for Ukraine’s self-defence against Russia, plus the millions of undocumented migrants who arrived on Biden’s watch.
While there are unknowns around the implementation, Trump is directionally clear on now wanting a tougher approach on unlawful migration. But Trump’s direction is less clear on Ukraine, and that arguably reflects the different US ‘tribes’ that Trump managed to unite behind his candidacy: isolationists, prioritisers, and primacists.
His new under-secretary for defense (Colby) is a prioritiser, arguing Europe should lead on Ukraine so the US can focus on China. Meanwhile, Trump’s secretary of state (Rubio) and national security advisor (Waltz) are primacists valuing US leadership abroad, though both leaned more ‘prioritiser’ in the campaign. And you could describe Trump’s nominee for chief spy (Gabbard) as an isolationist, though it’s unclear if she’ll survive confirmation.
Which way will Trump himself lean? US allies in Europe sound hopeful he won’t want to risk his own ‘Kabul’ moment in Ukraine, landing him instead somewhere between primacist and prioritiser. But France’s Macron isn’t taking any chances, again urging Europe to really, but seriously this time, get real on its own defence.
- “Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich other countries, we will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens”
Tariffs are trending harder than a Wirkin bag right now, and while a debate plays out around what this means for growth, Trump is staying on brand. His address didn’t mention Canada, and only made a brief migration reference to Mexico, but he later told reporters he plans to enact his 25% tariffs on both neighbours by February 1st (rather than on day one).
This could be his classic ‘threaten then negotiate’ approach again, but neither Canada nor Mexico are taking chances — Canada’s PM and provincial leaders, for example, just spent a day strategising on possible responses. Meanwhile, there’s no word on Trump’s next tariffs on China, which only got name-dropped in the above Panama Canal context.
- “We will measure our success not only by the battles we win but also by the wars that we end — and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into“
That bolded bit really comes down to Trump’s motto of peace through strength, but the entire line is probably an appeal to those same three US tribes above: the battles we win (primacists), the battles we end (prioritisers), and the wars we avoid (isolationists).
Trump also says he wants to be remembered as a peacemaker. And while he doesn’t mention Israel or the Saudis, you can bet he’ll prioritise his Abraham Accord talks to normalise their ties, the ultimate prize. But you can also bet the Saudis will bargain hard.
- “We will bring prices down, fill our strategic reserves up again right to the top, and export American energy all over the world.”
Trump got a round of applause for vowing to bring back a “drill, baby, drill!“ mindset. And it didn’t take him long to make it official, quickly signing executive orders including one to (again) withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, and another promising to peel back Biden’s Green New Deal as a step towards “unleashing American energy”.
Trump then wrapped it all up the same way he started: declaring a new US golden age.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
In relative terms, Trump’s inaugural address didn’t say much about foreign policy at all. Some have suggested this reflects an isolationist bent, though there’s every chance it just reflects his target audience (a domestic-focused base) more than his intent.
The other thing to consider is who was attending, and there’s no surprise he finds common cause with many of them, including populists like Italy’s Meloni and Argentina’s Milei. We were more intrigued, however, to see two other faces:
- The appearance by Georgia’s pro-West figurehead president Salome Zourabichvili suggests Trump may have sympathy for the mass protests against her country’s Russia-friendly PM, and
- Venezuela’s winning presidential candidate Edmundo González was there too, leaving us wondering at the extent to which Trump may now go to oust the autocrat Nicolás Maduro who just re-inaugurated himself instead.
Also worth noting:
- The audience also included the richest citizens of France (LVMH’s Bernard Arnault) and India (Reliance’s Mukesh Ambani), plus Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg, Google’s Sundar Pichai, Apple’s Tim Cook, and X’s Elon Musk.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to give his first speech today (Tuesday).