How the world’s top energy tycoons think about security

Every year, thousands of energy executives, ministers, and hangers-on trek to the US heartland of Big Oil (Houston) for CERAWeek, ‘the world’s premier energy conference’.

And you can probably guess which topic has dominated this year’s CERAWeek, but for those at the back, it’s been all about Trump 2.0 and his pledge to drill baby, drill.

Here are the four top quotes you need to know from our reporting on the ground —

1. “The Trump administration will treat climate change from what it is, a global physical phenomenon that is a side effect of building the modern world… Everything in life involves trade-offs. Everything.” — Chris Wright, USEnergy Secretary

As with any new White House administration or dentist, Secretary Wright (himself an energy magnate) spent a chunk of his remarks lambasting his predecessor — particularly her assessment at last year’s CERAWeek that US gas exports would soon be in the rear-view mirror.

Wright isn’t buying that (he highlighted that natural gas now makes up 25% of the global energy mix), but his speech was intriguing because it’s Trump 2.0’s clearest climate stance so far — after rejecting criticisms that he’s a climate sceptic, he described the issue as a trade-off, and one that Trump is now rebalancing after years of “quasi-religious policies”.

But speaking of balance, unleashing US supply will also put pressure on friendly producers (at home and abroad) who need higher prices to balance their books. Yet lower prices could also help with any maximum pressure on various energy-exporting US foes.

And as for those friendly producers abroad…

2. “There is more chance of Elvis speaking next than the current plan working!” — Amin H. Nasser, Saudi Aramco CEO

Which current plan is Mr Nasser dunking on here? Like Secretary Wright above, the Saudi oil chief was criticising what he described as an over-reliance on newer, greener energy sources that can’t currently meet growth in demand (let alone displace existing demand).

So Gulf partners are predictably happy with Trump 2.0’s approach to energy, though interestingly, Nasser was still careful to reiterate this “does not mean stepping back from our global climate ambitions”, with reducing emissions still the “highest possible priority.”

And that’s the kind of talk that still gets approving nods over the Atlantic where…

3. “We ourselves have been subject to a weaponisation of energy and… hybrid war on Europe and on the European Union.” — Ditte Juul Jørgensen, European Commission’s Director-General for Energy

Every CERAWeek conversation with European officials has included a polite yet testy nudge to see if they’ll comment on the impacts of any Russo-Ukraine peace accord, whether via a) rumours of reviving Nord Stream’s Russian gas into Europe, and/or b) the broader reintroduction of Russian energy onto global markets via sanctions relief.

The EU’s ambassador to the US, Jovita Neliupšienė, had the diplomacy gods smile upon her when another panellist accidentally deflected the question, though any diplomat would’ve reiterated the EU position that it’s continuing to pivot away from Russian energy.

Still, that leaves Europe in a tough spot — while it weans itself off Russian gas, it’s turned to US LNG en masse, leaving it vulnerable to US leverage as transatlantic ties sour. Enter Turkey, whose energy minister has emphasised in Houston that Europe (including Ukraine) will have more options as Turkey amps up its own industry (with a sprinkle of foreign investment).

Speaking of options…

4. “I don’t think friends do that to friends.” — Brian Jean, Minister of Energy and Minerals of Alberta

It’s been epic timing for the annual phalanx of Canadian ministers and oil executives to be in Houston, as each new tweet, tariff, and threat triggers more media requests for comment.

Canada’s basic message here has been twofold: first, tariffs are no way to treat a long-time friend; and second, Canada (like many others) now feels it has to rethink its friends, as Trump 2.0 doubles down on America First. Jean’s admission that Alberta is talking to countries like South Korea and Japan as possible oil customers was particularly telling.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

One way to think about this CERAWeek is how it wasn’t surprising.

First, it featured loads of speeches and lectures going in-depth on grid transformers and horizontal drilling techniques, but the unifying theme across it all? Security. Who has the energy, who controls it, who drills it, who refines it, who delivers it, and how. As our world loses faith in cross-border solutions, that insecurity is unsurprising.

Second, it featured a new US administration saying, unsurprisingly, the same stuff about energy that Trump said repeatedly on the campaign trail. But while the on-stage rhetoric has changed, so have things outside in the host state of Texas: the oil state just overtook California as the country’s largest utility-scale solar (and battery) market.

Also worth noting:

• If you must know (and we know you must), ‘CERA’ was the name of the research firm (Cambridge Energy Research Associates) that got the conference rolling 40+ years ago.
• While the EU has reduced its reliance on Russian energy since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, a report last month by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air found that the EU bought ~$24B in Russian oil and gas last year. By way of comparison, the Kiel Institute lists EU financial aid to Ukraine last year at ~$20B.