Is Russia seeking an airbase in Indonesia?

First it’s all the cars out front during inspection times. Then the new neighbours move in, dump some auto parts on the front lawn (which they immediately stop mowing), and yell at Premier League matches kicking off at 3am. The bad neighbours have arrived.

We’ve all experienced something like that. Heck, Seth Rogen and Zac Efron did a whole movie about it. So we might all have a sense of how various capitals in the Indo-Pacific are now feeling after reports emerged of Russia wanting an air-base in the region.

Specifically, defence outlet Janes dropped an explosive report claiming Moscow has lodged a request to house long-range bombers and other aircraft at Indonesia’s Manuhua Air Force Base in its Papua province.

Russia supposedly lodged the request in February after a meeting between Indonesia’s defence minister and Putin’s recently side-lined Sergei Shoigu (his ex-defence minister).

Anyway, nations then scrambled on the news:

• Australia (which hosts US forces a quick 1,300km / 808mi hop away in Darwin) wanted answers from…
• Indonesia, whose defence minister reportedly issued immediate denials, while…
• The Kremlin has declined to comment beyond labelling it all “fake news”. 

Now, we’re not great at maths, but something doesn’t quite add up.

So what’s going on here? 

1. Maybe it’s a lie seeded by Moscow to rattle a US-allied Ukraine-backer (Australia)
2. Maybe it’s true, and seeded by Moscow for the same reasons above
3. Maybe it’s true, and Indonesia’s defence minister just wasn’t in the loop because the request went via President Prabowo (who recently called Putin a “real friend”)
4. Maybe it’s true, and Western spooks seeded the story to bring sunlight in, trigger local opposition, and force a public response from Jakarta and Moscow, all without revealing sources (Indonesia’s initial denials could be tactical), and/or
5. Maybe it’s true, and perhaps even Indonesia seeded it to milk a few concessions from the West before rejecting Russia’s request.

In considering which option it might be, let’s consider three things.

First, Janes is a legit outlet, and its report cites various Indonesian officials as sources. It also made its name when a US spook shared top-secret US spy satellite images in the 80s (if any Intriguers would like to hook us up like that, you know where to find us 😍).

Second, there’s precedent. The Russian and Indonesian navies held their first joint drills just after Prabowo’s inauguration last year, and the Kremlin flew bombers to the exact same island in 2017 when Australia was co-leading a push for accountability over Russia’s downing of MH17.

And third, there are motives at play.

For Russia, this kind of deployment would:

• Help cultivate ties with a major non-aligned player like Indonesia
• Impose costs on a US-aligned Ukraine-backer like Australia
• Project Russia’s (limited) regional power further into the Pacific
• Thereby project the image of Russia as a global power, and
• Thereby consolidate Putin’s own strongman image back home.

For Indonesia, this kind of deployment could:

• Fit Prabowo’s thirst for a bigger, bolder, and more omnidirectional Indonesia
• Fit Prabowo’s history of relatively Moscow-friendly words and deeds, and
• Counter what he might see as excessive Western presence in his region, given…
• He headed up Indonesia’s special forces before Timor Leste’s 1999 referendum, which led to an Australian-led (and US-backed) military intervention.

And as for Australia? This has dropped right in the middle of an election campaign, with mutual recriminations now flaring up on whether anyone’s over/under-egging the threat for political gain. And that’s all just as the Aussies are still processing a) China’s shock 2022 security deal with Solomon Islands, and b) allied life under Trump 2.0.

So, while capitals and reporters still scramble for details, there’s enough to this story to make it worthy of reflection — yes, regardless of whether it even ends up true or not. 

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

So do we think it’s true? It’s hard to see how or why a legit outlet like Janes would suddenly invent multiple official sources, so our gut (on the limited evidence) is there’s truth here somewhere.

But even if that’s the case, we’re still just talking about a Russian request at this stage, which Jakarta can reject at will. Unless, of course, Putin has cards to play? And sure — Indonesia has always wanted his Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets, for example.

But the other thing to recall is Putin’s military and economy is a flaming hot mess right now, and getting worse as coal and gas prices plummet. So the mere leak of this story helps Putin pretend otherwise, while implicitly accusing the West of hypocrisy by drawing parallels between hypothetical Russia bombers in Indonesia, and actual NATO basing in Europe (which is, of course, a response to Russia’s history of invading).

Meanwhile, the response in Australia has been revealing, and perhaps an acknowledgement that while US leadership has never been perfect, whatever comes next might be worse.