Plus: North Korea's UNESCO volcano
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ 3 big lines from the WTO |
2️⃣ Japan’s lab-grown chicken |
3️⃣ UNESCO site of the day |
Hi Intriguer. I had an ‘ol foreign service pal serving in Cuba who, through some epic twists and turns, somehow ended up making friends with none other than Fidel Castro’s son (aka the late ‘Fidelito’).
Famously, my buddy would casually bring Fidelito along to some random Sunday grill at a friend’s private Havana home, then respond to the shocked faces like, “oh, have you guys met my friend Fidelito?”
It’s the equivalent of, say, bringing a Destiny’s Child member along to your friend’s Super Bowl watch party, and just casually mentioning between chicken wings like, “oh, have y’all met my friend Beyoncé?” A truly wild flex in diplomacy. The fun of the career.
Anyway, let’s get you some juicy lines from the latest WTO Global Trade Outlook.
PS – This is our last briefing for the week, but we’ll be gracefully swan-diving back into your inbox from Tuesday.
Markets tumble after Powell hints Fed won’t intervene.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has flagged he might not cut rates, dashing investor hopes after another chaotic week. Instead, Powell still seems wary of inflation, which he’s warned could spike due to Trump’s tariffs.
Trump hints at progress in Japan trade talks.
The US president has personally attended trade talks with Japan’s delegation, alongside his secretaries of the treasury (Bessent) and commerce (Lutnick). Italian PM Giorgia Meloni is also in town hoping to negotiate a tariff reduction.
Israel says troops to remain in Gaza.
The defence minister (Katz) has flagged his troops will remain in Gaza buffer zones, even after any end to the war. He’s also said, “no humanitarian aid will enter Gaza, and blocking this aid is one of the main pressure levers preventing Hamas from using it as a tool with the population."
The US and Iran issue pre-talk demands.
US special envoy Steve Witkoff has said Iran must “stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponization program”, sharpening earlier remarks indicating maybe Iran could keep uranium at a lower civilian-only level. In turn, Tehran has responded that its right to enrich uranium is “not negotiable”. Meanwhile, the NYT is reporting that the US has thwarted Israeli plans to strike Iranian nuclear facilities as soon as next month.
Scientists find best evidence yet of life beyond Earth.
Researchers studying the planet K2-18b, just a brisk 120 light-years from Earth, have found evidence of a molecule linked to living organisms.
TOP STORY
3 things the WTO’s trade numbers tell us
Now that The Great Tariff Showdown of 2025™ is on and the markets have gone wild, the number-crunchers at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) have decided to lob their latest ‘Global Trade Outlook’ into the mix. And it’s timely because:
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Of course, everyone wants to know what’s next
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There’s now a bill in Congress to pull the US out of the WTO, and
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The World Bank’s Spring Meetings kick off in DC next week, meaning…
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Thousands of foreign officials (including several we’ve spoken to) will be in DC, hustling to line up US meetings to negotiate lower tariffs.
So, what does this WTO report tell us? Here are the three quotes you need to know:
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“The outlook for global trade has deteriorated sharply due to a surge in tariffs and trade policy uncertainty”
To be clear, we didn’t go digging around for this one. It’s literally the WTO’s opening line, warning that trade will decline by 0.2% this year. And just to rub it in, the WTO notes that ”had tariffs and uncertainty remained low”, our world would’ve traded 2.7% more.
Now, President Trump has of course wound back most tariffs to his 10% baseline, but that’s only for 90 days. So the uncertainty remains, and that’s tough to measure, though:
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We’ve seen an immediate collapse in ocean container bookings
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An immediate collapse in consumer sentiment (playing wait-and-see), and
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An immediate tripling (then easing) in Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge‘ (VIX).
Now, as for what happens next….
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“Chinese merchandise exports are projected to rise by 4% to 9% across all regions outside North America as trade is redirected”
This is reiterating a point we’ve long made, which is that as tariffs render US-China trade non-viable, China will scramble to find new markets to absorb its vast output.
As for what happens between the US and everyone else? That depends on Trump’s ongoing tariff talks, though he’s made clear he wants more stuff manufactured in the US rather than imported. And of course, that in turn depends on how his talks go: investors typically wouldn’t back new plants without tax and tariff certainty.
But of course, our world doesn’t just trade in goods, but also…
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“Services trade, though not directly subject to tariffs, is also expected to be adversely affected”
This is an interesting one that’s getting overlooked a bit. While most tariffs apply to physical goods, that’ll still reduce demand for related services like transport and logistics — plus related boardroom jitters might curb demand for services like marketing and finance. Still, the WTO is projecting services trade to grow this year.
Yet that also feels like a projection that can change overnight: the world’s largest exporter of services is the US, and its major players (like Silicon Valley and Hollywood) are already getting warning shots — the EU has identified US tech as a prime retaliation target, while China has already started tapering the number of Hollywood films it’ll screen.
Oh, and aside from being massive sectors, both Hollywood and Silicon Valley are also two of America’s strongest sources of soft power.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
This WTO report casually mentions at one point that when it comes to this evolving trade war, there’s “no directly comparable event in recent history”. So if this all feels kinda big lately, rest assured that’s because it absolutely is big.
Anyway, attention will now shift to next week’s World Bank meetings in DC, and we actually managed to join a call yesterday with the Bank’s chief (and former Mastercard CEO) Ajay Banga. He tried valiantly to avoid questions on Trump’s tariffs, but eventually he went beyond just urging everyone to wrap up these US trade talks asap. Specifically, he also urged capitals to “keep their regional and bilateral deals”, too.
I.e., his point was that everyone should still hedge their bets. And that leads us to another under-reported ripple effect: we’re seeing lots of capitals get a sudden rush of renewed interest in trade talks that long seemed to be going nowhere. Eg, the EU-Australia on-again-off-again talks might now be on again, Japan is re-visiting Southeast Asia, and African capitals are redoubling their own free trade area efforts.
So while Trump’s tariffs are initially an attempt to unwind decades of accumulated imbalances between the US and China, the impacts will be felt everywhere.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇨🇳 China: Chinese refineries are importing record amounts of Canadian crude as Beijing pivots away from US reliance. The shift started after Canada expanded a Pacific pipeline last year, but it’s accelerated as US-China tariffs escalate.
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🇫🇷 France: US envoys Marco Rubio and Steve Witkoff are now in Paris for Ukraine talks with European counterparts. The White House says it’s part of efforts to negotiate a ceasefire, notwithstanding Trump’s frustration at progress.
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🇲🇻 Maldives: The Maldives has moved to ban entry by Israeli passport holders, citing its commitment to “the rights of the Palestinian people”. Bangladesh banned its citizens from visiting Israel for similar reasons last week.
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🇪🇨 Ecuador: Re-elected conservative Daniel Noboa has flagged changing Ecuador’s constitution to bring the US military back in against organised crime. That’d un-do reforms made by former left-leaning leader Rafael Correa.
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🇦🇪 UAE: Egypt, the Saudis, and the UAE have declined to sign a joint statement at a UK-hosted summit on Sudan’s crisis. All variously involved in the conflict, they couldn’t agree to a set of principles around further talks.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Meanwhile, in other worlds
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Science: Japanese researchers have grown bite-size pieces of chicken in a lab, building on earlier advances elsewhere that’ve produced meat more like mince.
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Culture: Millions will apparently tune into a Swedish slow-TV network broadcasting a 24/7 livestream of moose migration.
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Finance: Funding for US startups hit a huge $92B in Q1, but insiders say the rest-of-year outlook looks grim as everyone waits for clarity around tariffs.
UNESCO SITE OF THE DAY
Mount Paektu. Credits: Laica ac.
When you think of North Korea, perhaps ‘nukes’, ‘leather-clad dictators’, and/or ‘impeccable mass choreography’ come to mind more than ‘breathtaking natural landscapes’. But the North just got its first UNESCO Global Geopark site.
At the hermit state’s highest peak of Mount Paektu, there’s an active stratovolcano (a steep-sided volcano) with a deep crater lake and stunning views across the border towards China. UNESCO dished the award out for “international geological significance”.
Of course, this particular summit also has political and mythological significance in the North, where state propaganda lists the volcano as the birthplace of Kim Jong Un’s father (historians believe he was actually born over the border in Russia).
DAILY POLL
Do you think the US will leave the WTO? |
Yesterday’s poll: What do you think's going on with this Russia-Indonesia airbase report?
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇷🇺 It's a lie leaked by Russia (10%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 📣 It's true, leaked by Russia (20%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🤷 It's true, but Jakarta's defence minister didn't know (21%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🕵️ It's true, leaked by Western intel (33%)
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇮🇩 It's true, leaked by Indonesia (14%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (1%)
Your two cents:
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🕵️ D.J.S: “This is a twofer: 1, The Western leaker (AUS?) gets to show Putin/Prabowo that their security is porous and 2: It stirs the political pot with Indonesia’s populace to create internal friction against the proposed agreement.”
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🇮🇩 M.G: “It gives Indonesia the opportunity to get more goodies from the West, which they prefer to goodies from China and Russia. Then they say ‘so-sorry’ to Russia. Another job well done, playing one superpower off the other.”
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📣 C.S.C: “Putin is sticking his toe into the pool to check the temperature.”
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✍️ D.B: “It is a feint and a testing of the possibilities. Likely some heavy negotiations in play with useful parties.”
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