Plus: Cafe of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Four key questions from Assad’s collapse |
2️⃣ Azerbaijan’s hot new bathing trend |
3️⃣ Cafe of the day |
Hi Intriguer. At times like this, I turn to my one true source of inner strength: memes. Like the ol’ classic with an exasperated Captain despairing, “What a week, huh?” only to be met with Tintin’s blunt response: “Captain, it’s Wednesday”.
But after a week in which Korea’s government almost imploded, France’s government collapsed, and Syria’s long-time dictator suddenly fled to Moscow, that meme feels bang-on right now. Except it’s only Monday. Anyway, let’s dive in, shall we?
Romanian court annuls shock election results.
Romania’s constitutional court annulled the first round results of the country’s presidential election just hours before the weekend’s scheduled runoff vote. The court made the decision after evidence emerged suggesting that the shock winner, hard-right Călin Georgescu, had benefitted from a Russian influence operation. Georgescu and other opposition figures have criticised the decision, describing it as an attack on Romania’s democracy. But the court says the entire process will now be rerun, with dates TBC.
Yoon survives impeachment attempt.
South Korea’s president has survived an opposition-led impeachment attempt after he briefly imposed martial law in the country last week. Despite initially supporting Yoon's removal, his ruling party eventually boycotted the vote instead, suggesting they’ll now seek his resignation (he apologised on Saturday night). Meanwhile, South Korean prosecutors have confirmed they’re investigating Yoon on charges of treason and abuse of power, meaning he’s now banned from foreign travel.
Trump lays out more plans in interview.
During the president-elect’s first network TV interview since the election, Donald Trump said he’ll pardon those involved in the January 6 storming of the Capitol, won’t seek the resignation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and declined to guarantee that Americans won’t pay higher prices under his aggressive tariff plans.
Australia and Nauru sign exclusivity treaty.
Australia and the tiny Pacific Island nation of Nauru have signed a treaty which will see Canberra pledge more budget and security support in exchange for an effective veto power over Nauru’s security and critical infrastructure partners. Similar to last year’s treaty with Tuvalu, this deal is aimed at curbing China’s influence in the region.
EU and Mercosur finalise trade agreement.
After decades of negotiations and stalling, the EU and Mercosur (a bloc of South American nations) finalised a free trade agreement on Friday. The agreement is aimed at lowering tariffs and trade barriers, but will likely face staunch opposition from EU farmers plus a handful of EU members led by France.
Georgian diplomats resign amid turmoil.
Several high-ranking Georgian diplomats, including the ambassadors to the Netherlands and Bulgaria, have resigned amid a political crisis that continues to envelop the nation, with implications for the whole region. We spoke to several Georgian diplomats to get you the low-down.
TOP STORY
4 key questions from Assad’s collapse
Rebel leader Golani (L) and ousted dictator Assad (R)
The half-century-old Assad family dictatorship collapsed yesterday (Sunday), just 11 days after rebel forces suddenly broke through the stalemate, and 13 years (plus a half million deaths) after Assad’s brutal crackdown on protestors tipped his country into civil war.
He said he'd address the nation on Saturday night but he fled to Moscow instead, leaving behind some remarkable scenes: a highway littered with abandoned army uniforms; randoms wandering into his palaces to peruse his collection of DVDs (with Borat) and cars (he was a Ferrari guy); political prisoners staggering out into the sunlight, bleary-eyed; and Syrian diplomats abroad posting footage of jubilation at their embassies.
So, what happened? Assad was being propped up by Russian air support and Hezbollah ground support, but both were spread thin thanks to Ukraine and Israel respectively. So the rebels gave Assad's regime a nudge, and it wobbled before collapsing, just like that.
And what happens next? Here are four key questions we’re tracking:
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Who's now in control?
As we wrote last week, the dominant opposition faction is led by 42-year-old Abu Mohammed al-Golani. While he publicly cut various extremist ties in 2016, his Al Qaeda origin story means there's still a few terrorist listings plus a $10M US bounty on his head.
And while yes, it was Golani who led Assad's ousting, his ~25,000 troops aren’t enough to actually run what he's just conquered. For that, he really needs buy-in from Syria's other factions. And yet the one thing uniting them all (opposition to Assad) just vanished.
So what to do? Golani is continuing his epic rebrand, vowing to protect minorities and build a Syria for all, after a peaceful transition under the supervision of Assad's own prime minister. His aim is not only to win over local factions, but also the international community at large. And a key test for both will be how he treats the Alawites, for example — they're the Assads' minority sect, seen by many as heretical for their faith (a Shiite offshoot) and/or politics (pro-Assad).
History and human nature leave us doubting whether he can pull this off. By way of example, let's look at…
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How have outside powers responded?
Geopolitics abhors a vacuum, and yet that's exactly what Syria's neighbours and others will have seen once Assad fled to Moscow. Making things more complex is Syria's bewildering ethno-religious demography, and its strategic geography (a pipeline for Iraqi and Egyptian oil, and a transit route for Iranian weapons to its proxies like Hezbollah).
So with that high stakes and low trust atmosphere, every player with means has already made a move: Turkey has (again) hit various rival Kurdish groups; Israel has seized more land along the Golan Heights; and the US has launched airstrikes on ISIS strongholds.
As for those without the means? Iran evacuated its own advisors, and Russia's naval ships left their Tartus base in Syria. Which leads us to…
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What does this tell us about Putin?
Well, it tells us his resolve is rock solid, until it isn't. Which really means it never was.
It's unclear what now happens with his two main bases in Syria, but he'll be loath to lose them given the way they expand his reach and connect Moscow to his footprint in Africa.
It's all a vivid reminder of the dilemma Putin has put himself in: sustain the Assad regime, or his invasion of Ukraine; plug manpower gaps on the frontlines, or plug them back on the arms production lines. And so on. But as Assad just learned, Putin can't do it all.
And that, in turn, is also a vivid reminder of the limits to Putin's a) ✌️red lines✌️, b) his specific vision for a multipolar world; and even c) his basic strategy to get there: yes, he'll push ahead when his rivals hesitate (as the world did after Assad gassed his own people, or after Putin first invaded Crimea), but he'll quietly retreat when he's losing (as he's now done in both the Black Sea and Syria).
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And what does this tell us about authoritarians?
First, their power can be brittle. While Syria looked like a stalemate, pressure was building as the rebels regrouped and Assad's allies re-focused elsewhere, until something (Assad) snapped. To paraphrase the Hemingway line, it was gradual, then sudden. A little like turning 40.
That's why folks celebrating on the streets are chanting “forever is over”, a reference to the regime's motto of "forever al-Assad". His rule was going to last forever, until it didn't. And regimes everywhere will have taken note — there are already rumours of an internal blame-game playing out in Tehran, which feels risky when your supreme leader is 85.
Second, these regimes can't just decree power back into existence. Assad tried to bolster his position by giving his conscripts a 50% payrise last week. But after a decade of malaise, an extra 50% of diddly is still diddly.
And third, it'll erode claims elsewhere that the only option when dealing with authoritarians is 'respecting the reality on the ground': rather, Syria's rag-tag opposition has offered a reminder that sometimes, you can just reshape that reality yourself.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
F. Scott Fitzgerald famously wrote that “the test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function." But folks often drop off the second part of his quote: "One should, for example, be able to see that things are hopeless yet be determined to make them otherwise.”
There are multiple opposing ideas at play in Syria right now, but Intriguers can handle them all:
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Yes, sometimes the only thing worse than a brutal dictatorship is the dictatorship that comes next, if not the outright anarchy. And yet that's not necessarily a reason for any particular dictatorship to persist.
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Yes, we're in a bizarre situation with NATO allies the US and Turkey each backing rival factions in Syria, but that's not a reason to cede space to ISIS; and
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Yes, there's a dilemma around how to engage with Golani given his murky past, but it's a dilemma that still now offers Syria even a glimmer of hope.
Also worth noting:
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One of the many mysteries of Assad's regime is what happened to American journalist Austin Tice, kidnapped 12 years ago. There are rumours he's still alive.
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Intrigue’s very own John, Helen, and Jeremy will shortly appear live on 2WAY to chat further about Syria: it’ll be Monday evening from ~6pm in New York, ~11pm in London, and ~8am Tuesday morning in Tokyo. Join us here.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇦🇫 Afghanistan: The Taliban has reportedly banned women from training as nurses and midwives, a rare local avenue for women to pursue further education. It’s already one of the world’s riskiest places to give birth, and this new rule seems likely to exacerbate that crisis as fewer women seek help from male-only clinics.
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🇫🇷 France: Dozens of world leaders were in Paris over the weekend to attend the reopening of the Notre Dame Cathedral. Highlights included a meeting between Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump, who followed up for another chat in the cathedral after the assembled dignitaries gave Zelensky a standing ovation.
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🇮🇳 India: The local central bank has cut its growth forecast for the 2025 fiscal year from 7.2% to 6.6%. India has been the world’s fastest-growing major economy lately, but inflation and slowing industrial activity have been tapping its brakes.
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🇨🇦 Canada: Under a newly unveiled doctrine, Canada will boost its military presence in the Arctic to counter a growing presence in the strategic region from Russia and China. Canada’s NATO allies have occasionally criticised its missed defence spending targets, but Ottawa is now looking to deploy new patrol ships, destroyers, icebreakers, and submarines to the Arctic.
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🇬🇭 Ghana: Former leader John Dramani Mahama has won the weekend’s presidential election, beating out the current vice president in a hotly contested race. He’ll now need to confront arguably Ghana’s worst economic crisis in a generation.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news:
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A candy company has provided a British man with $2.50 in compensation after he bought a chocolate bar that was missing its trademark ‘ripple’.
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Local authorities in Japan have issued a recall for a replica of the Harry Potter movie sword after ruling that its pointy edge violated local sword laws.
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Oil baths are apparently a thing in Azerbaijan (we’re talking the oil that ends up in your car, not the oil that ends up on your salad).
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Italian police have arrested a nun for allegedly acting as a go-between for imprisoned gang members.
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British police have recovered a stolen van filled with 2,500 steak pies, which were unfortunately too damaged to eat.
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And an online influencer is suing another influencer for copying her vibe.
CAFE OF THE DAY
Credits: AP Photo/Lee Jin-man.
There are plenty of things you'd expect to see along the border between North and South Korea: high-powered binoculars, soldiers, barbed wire, etc. But a Starbucks? Surely not.
And yet, there’s now a Starbucks inside South Korea’s Aegibong Peace Ecopark, featuring panoramic views back over the North. The cafe is perched atop a border observation tower, and is one of several initiatives from the South’s various border towns hoping to attract more tourists. You’ve just gotta clear a couple of military checkpoints to get there.
DAILY POLL
Do you think 2025 will bring about the fall of more long-time autocrats? |
Last Thursday’s poll: What do you think Macron should do next?
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🤝 Appoint another centrist (25%)
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 👈 Appoint a PM from the left (20%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👉 Appoint a PM from the right (8%)
🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️ 💊 Resign and trigger fresh elections (23%)
🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️ 🧊 Wait and let tensions cool (22%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
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🤝 O.R: “Call Le Pen's bluff. She withdrew her budget alignment in the hope that it would trigger Macron's resignation and open up her pathway to the presidency before her trial ends (which could end up making her ineligible in 2027). Wanna play politics? Let's.”
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💊 I.P: “He is already a Lame Duck having to wait for another round of elections until next year, and France cannot afford more of the same dysfunction.”
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👈 R.L: ”They have the most seats and maintaining a coalition between them and the centrists may be more stable. It also punishes Le Pen for dropping her support that led to this chaos.”
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