Plus: Diplomacy of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ 4 quotes from the world’s top energy event |
2️⃣ A Greek lawmaker in trouble |
3️⃣ Diplomacy of the day |
Hi Intriguer. A smug thing to do at parties is mention you’ve been listening to French music lately. If you really wanted to impress, you could refer to ‘chanson française’ which, like ‘je ne sais quoi’ (‘I don’t know what’) never sounds quite as cool when translated to English. ‘Chanson française’ literally means ‘French song’…
Anyway, folks debate the definition of chanson, but for me, it’s those classic tunes where the artist doesn’t so much ‘sing’ the lyrics as casually ‘mention’ them, presumably (and I’m entering pure speculation territory here) between long drags on a Gauloises.
If your nosy party companions insist on a track to spin, take them back to the 80s with the classic Là-bas by Jean-Jacques Goldman and Sirima. You can almost hear his mullet (shall we pronounce it ‘moo-lay’?) flapping in the Parisian late-autumn breeze. Then tell your friends about the world’s top energy conference, our lead story for today.
US officials head to Russia.
A team of US officials is en route to Moscow to formally present the proposed 30-day ceasefire with Ukraine. Meanwhile, Putin has visited the Russian region of Kursk, where Ukraine has been withdrawing troops ahead of Russian advances.
US inflation falls in February.
Consumer prices fell slightly more than expected to 2.8% in February, presenting a stronger case for the Fed to cut rates amid signs of slowing economic activity.
Northvolt files for bankruptcy in Sweden.
The Swedish battery startup has filed for bankruptcy, listing geopolitical instability and supply chain disruptions among its challenges. Northvolt, once seen as Europe’s best shot at competing with Asia’s EV battery dominance, filed for bankruptcy in the US last year.
Canada’s Carney to be sworn in Friday.
Mark Carney, the new Liberal Party leader, will be sworn in as Canada’s 24th prime minister tomorrow (Friday). Word is he’ll then call elections shortly after. Meanwhile, Canada has announced tariffs on $21B worth of US goods in retaliation for Trump’s 25% global levies on steel and aluminium that went into effect on Wednesday.
New Vanuatu PM wants to revisit Australia security pact.
Jotham Napat, who just became prime minister in February, has told The Guardian that Vanuatu’s 2022 security pact with Canberra has to be taken “back to the drawing board” to include concerns around climate change and visa-free travel.
SpaceX delays rescue mission.
Two NASA astronauts stranded on the International Space Station for nearly nine months (after their Boeing craft developed propulsion issues) will have to wait at least another couple of days, as their SpaceX rescue flight has now been delayed due to its own last-minute issue.
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TOP STORY
4 quotes from the world’s top energy conference
Every year, thousands of energy executives, ministers, and hangers-on trek to the US heartland of Big Oil (Houston) for CERAWeek, ‘the world’s premier energy conference’.
And you can probably guess which topic has dominated this year’s CERAWeek, but for those at the back, it’s been all about Trump 2.0 and his pledge to drill baby, drill.
So with Intrigue’s very own Kristen on the ground in Houston this week, here are the four top quotes you need to know —
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“The Trump administration will treat climate change from what it is, a global physical phenomenon that is a side effect of building the modern world… Everything in life involves trade-offs. Everything.” — Chris Wright, US Energy Secretary
As with any new White House administration or dentist, Secretary Wright (himself an energy magnate) spent a chunk of his remarks lambasting his predecessor — particularly her assessment at last year’s CERAWeek that US gas exports would soon be in the rear-view mirror.
Wright isn’t buying that (he highlighted that natural gas now makes up 25% of the global energy mix), but his speech was intriguing because it's Trump 2.0’s clearest climate stance so far — after rejecting criticisms that he’s a climate sceptic, he described the issue as a trade-off, and one that Trump is now rebalancing after years of “quasi-religious policies”.
But speaking of balance, unleashing US supply will also put pressure on friendly producers (at home and abroad) who need higher prices to balance their books. Yet lower prices could also help with any maximum pressure on various energy-exporting US foes.
And as for those friendly producers abroad…
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“There is more chance of Elvis speaking next than the current plan working! — Amin H. Nasser, Saudi Aramco CEO
Which current plan is Mr Nasser dunking on here? Like Secretary Wright above, the Saudi oil chief was criticising what he described as an over-reliance on newer, greener energy sources that can’t currently meet growth in demand (let alone displace existing demand).
So Gulf partners are predictably happy with Trump 2.0’s approach to energy, though interestingly, Nasser was still careful to reiterate this “does not mean stepping back from our global climate ambitions”, with reducing emissions still the “highest possible priority.”
And that’s the kind of talk that still gets approving nods over the Atlantic where…
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“We ourselves have been subject to a weaponisation of energy and… hybrid war on Europe and on the European Union.” — Ditte Juul Jørgensen, European Commission’s Director-General for Energy
Every CERAWeek conversation with European officials has included a polite yet testy nudge to see if they’ll comment on the impacts of any Russo-Ukraine peace accord, whether via a) rumours of reviving Nord Stream’s Russian gas into Europe, and/or b) the broader reintroduction of Russian energy onto global markets via sanctions relief.
The EU’s ambassador to the US, Jovita Neliupšienė, had the diplomacy gods smile upon her when another panellist accidentally deflected the question, though any diplomat would’ve reiterated the EU position that it’s continuing to pivot away from Russian energy.
Still, that leaves Europe in a tough spot — while it weans itself off Russian gas, it’s turned to US LNG en masse, leaving it vulnerable to US leverage as transatlantic ties sour. Enter Turkey, whose energy minister has emphasised in Houston that Europe (including Ukraine) will have more options as Turkey amps up its own industry (with a sprinkle of foreign investment).
Speaking of options…
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"I don't think friends do that to friends" — Brian Jean, Minister of Energy and Minerals of Alberta
It’s been epic timing for the annual phalanx of Canadian ministers and oil executives to be in Houston, as each new tweet, tariff, and threat triggers more media requests for comment.
Canada’s basic message here has been twofold: first, tariffs are no way to treat a long-time friend; and second, Canada (like many others) now feels it has to rethink its friends, as Trump 2.0 doubles down on America First. Jean’s admission that Alberta is talking to countries like South Korea and Japan as possible oil customers was particularly telling.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
One way to think about this CERAWeek is how it wasn’t surprising.
First, it featured loads of speeches and lectures going in-depth on grid transformers and horizontal drilling techniques, but the unifying theme across it all? Security. Who has the energy, who controls it, who drills it, who refines it, who delivers it, and how. As our world loses faith in cross-border solutions, that insecurity is unsurprising.
Second, it featured a new US administration saying, unsurprisingly, the same stuff about energy that Trump said repeatedly on the campaign trail. But while the on-stage rhetoric has changed, so have things outside in the host state of Texas: the oil state just overtook California as the country’s largest utility-scale solar (and battery) market.
Also worth noting:
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If you must know (and we know you must), ‘CERA’ was the name of the research firm (Cambridge Energy Research Associates) that got the conference rolling 40+ years ago.
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While the EU has reduced its reliance on Russian energy since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, a report last month by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air found that the EU bought ~$24B in Russian oil and gas last year. By way of comparison, the Kiel Institute lists EU financial aid to Ukraine last year at ~$20B.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇰🇷 South Korea: The US Department of Energy has reportedly moved to designate South Korea as a “sensitive country”, leading to new US restrictions around cooperation on nuclear power and AI. There’s speculation this could be a US warning against those calling on South Korea to develop its own nukes.
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🇪🇸 Spain: In an effort to combat deepfakes, Madrid has approved a bill that’ll impose hefty fines on companies that don’t properly disclose the use of AI content. The bill (which still needs lawmaker sign-off) proposes to make Spain one of the first countries to adopt guidelines from the EU’s new AI Act.
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🇸🇬 Singapore: Vietnam and Singapore have agreed to upgrade their ties to a ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’. Vietnam already gave the same top upgrade to the US, China, and nine others, and has highlighted undersea cables, finance, and energy as its forward priorities with Singapore.
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🇻🇪 Venezuela: Caracas has reportedly warned the Trump administration that it will no longer accept deportation flights from the US. The move comes days after Washington rescinded a Chevron licence to operate in Venezuela, as part of Trump’s maximum pressure campaign against Nicolas Maduro’s regime.
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🇸🇸 South Sudan: Something’s up in South Sudan — Uganda has announced it’s deployed troops to help “secure” South Sudan’s capital of Juba, in a version of events quickly denied by a South Sudanese minister. Local intrigue has been rising in South Sudan as tensions flare between the president and his deputy/rival.
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EXTRA INTRIGUE
Meanwhile in other worlds
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Space: NASA has launched a new space telescope on a mission to find life’s key ingredients.
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Art: Authorities have detained a Greek politician after he allegedly vandalised artwork he deemed blasphemous at the Alexandros Soutsos Museum in Athens.
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Tech: A group of hackers linked to the North Korean regime have managed to sneak spyware onto Google Play and tricked some users into downloading it.
DIPLOMACY OF THE DAY
Nelson Mandela at the National Orchid Garden, 1997. Courtesy of National Archives of Singapore.
When you’re a small city-state with limited natural resources and a global reputation to uphold, you’ve gotta get creative with those diplomatic gifts. So move aside, dusty old tome, and outta the way, niche local handicrafts. Because Singapore continues to crush this one with its ‘orchid VIP naming program’ at the Singapore Botanic Gardens
In a tradition that’s been running since 1956, more than 200 visiting world leaders and celebrities now have their own namesake orchid hybrid — South Africa’s late Nelson Mandela got the Paravanda Nelson Mandela, Margaret Thatcher got the Dendrobium Margaret Thatcher, and you’ll never guess who the Trichocentrum Michael Jackson is named after.
Fun fact: the diplomats at Singapore’s foreign ministry help select the hybrid orchid for each VIP, to avoid inadvertently picking an awkward or offensive colour scheme.
DAILY POLL
How do you feel about Trump 2.0's approach to energy? |
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think Russia will agree to a 30-day ceasefire?
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 👍 Yep, it needs the break (41%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👎 Nope, it'll keep pushing its demands (57%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
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👎 S.M: “The US hasn't drawn any red lines. Putin will push his advantage until he finds one.”
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👍 A.A: “Accepting costs Putin nothing and gives his ally in Washington credibility. He will accept and then breach when convenient.”
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✍️ E.K: “Yes, but it won't last. Putin will spin a narrative about Ukraine that justifies his continued invasion – he can't back down now without looking weak.”
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