🌍 A closer look at the Israel-Hamas deal

Hi Intriguer. I spent three years working with Israelis and Palestinians as a diplomat in the Middle East from 2015-18. I still know many people there whose lives have been forever changed by the violence.

That’s why I was so relieved to watch the four-day pause and hostage-prisoner swap unfold largely as agreed over the weekend.

What comes next is less clear. It feels surreal to me that fighting will simply restart, as if that decision has already been imposed by some external force. In today’s briefing we look at what might happen if (or when) the fighting does resume, and how positions might’ve changed after this past weekend.

– Helen Zhang, Co-founder

Russia repels Ukrainian reprisal. Russia claims to have repelled a Ukrainian drone attack on the Moscow region a day after Ukrainian cities suffered their largest drone strikes since last winter. Russia’s attack, which lasted six hours on Saturday, largely targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure ahead of the winter.

Burlington shooting. Police have arrested a suspect in the shooting of three Palestinian students in Vermont. It’s being investigated as a potential hate crime.

Pencil it in. The foreign ministers of China, Japan, and South Korea met in Korea yesterday for the first time since 2019, vowing to work on a summit of their three leaders. But it’s not all beer and skittles: China’s Wang Yi skipped the joint dinner and press conference, reflecting Beijing’s caution towards the two US allies.

Musk does damage control. Elon Musk is due to meet Israeli President Isaac Herzog and hostage family members today. The billionaire’s surprise visit to Israel comes after his apparent endorsement of an anti-Semitic tweet, which earned him an official rebuke from the White House.

Leaky deals. Leaked documents from this week’s upcoming COP suggest the UAE intended to use its host country status to discuss oil deals with 15 nations. This will bolster scepticism around a petrostate hosting a climate change conference.

Prophet Song wins Booker Prize. Irish writer Paul Lynch’s dystopian novel ‘Prophet Song’ has won this year’s Booker Prize. The chair of judges described the winning book as “soul-shattering and true”.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

The weekend's events have been revealing in a few ways.

First, Hamas and Israel both sought to project strength while complying with their deal: Hamas released its third tranche of hostages in the middle of Gaza City (where Israel has established control), while Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu visited troops (🇮🇱) nearby in Gaza the very same day.

Second, many of the released Palestinians have been returned to jubilant crowds in the West Bank, where the ailing Palestinian Authority (PA) holds power. This apparent Hamas result will highlight the PA’s weakness.

Third, the numbers look better for Israel compared to 2011, when it traded 1,027 Palestinian prisoners (including the current Hamas chief in Gaza) for a single Israeli soldier; and that was after five years in captivity versus 50 days this time. Israel will believe its military response has made the difference.

For now, the longer this pause extends, the harder it’ll be (operationally and reputationally) for Israel to end it. But that's still what it's vowing to do.

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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

1. 🇨🇳 China: Officials said yesterday (Sunday) that a local respiratory illness is caused by the flu and not a novel virus. The World Health Organisation asked officials for more information last week after reports emerged that hospitals in northern China were filling with patients. 

2. 🇫🇮 Finland: Finish authorities warned Moscow they’re prepared to close all border crossings after accusing Russia of pushing hundreds of undocumented migrants across their shared border. Estonia has levelled similar complaints against Russia. 

3. 🇵🇭 Philippines: President Marcos Jr told reporters that the Philippines is debating whether to rejoin the International Criminal Court, five years after it left. Manila first withdrew after the court opened an investigation into the previous administration’s violent war on drugs. 

4. 🇵🇦 Panama: Eight mine workers were injured over the weekend after protesters threw stones at a bus on which they were riding. Groups have been demonstrating for weeks against Canadian miner First Quantum, which recently won a lucrative but controversial copper mining contract. 

5. 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone: President Julius Maada Bio declared a nationwide curfew yesterday after gunmen attacked military bases and prisons across the country. ECOWAS, the West African regional bloc, warned the plot was designed to “disturb the peace and constitutional order.”

EXTRA INTRIGUE

Your weekly roundup of the world’s more surprising news.

• A Boeing 787 has landed in icy Antarctica for the first time ever.

• Australian authorities have rejected a coal plant’s request for ‘carbon neutral’ status, saying the plant would actually be a top emitter.

• Police in New Zealand have responded to reports of hair sticking out the trunk of a car, only to discover it was a mannequin head.

• Colourful underwear has helped the feds identify a robbery suspect in New York, a year after the crime.

• And the pūteketeke, a “weird, puking bird with a colourful mullet”, has won New Zealand’s bird of the year award.

FLAG OF THE DAY

In the tiny island nation of Palau, the moon is a symbol of peace, and the full moon is a time for celebration. That’s probably why Palauans put it on their flag. The nation’s flag bears some resemblance to that of Bangladesh – with one big difference. Can you guess what the blue background represents?

Our rating: 9.0/10

DAILY POLL

A group of EU states recently wrote a letter to the EU Commission, asking it to rethink its upcoming shipping emissions tax.

Thursday’s poll: Where do you see US-India relations headed after the reported assassination attempt on US soil?

🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ ⚔️ Things will get messy, just like between India and Canada (23%)

🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🗣️ It'll be fine, in part because the US has taken a measured approach (26%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🧑‍🤝‍🧑 It'll be fine, because the US and India need each other too much (50%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (1%)

Your two cents:

• 🧑‍🤝‍🧑 E.S: “India's leaders make a poor attempt at puffing out their chests in light of their constant skirmishes with China. And because of internal strife with minorities within their borders. Having the U.S. and Canada lined up against them will be detrimental to India's safety.”

• 🧑‍🤝‍🧑 Sz.K.B: “"This is supposed to be a happy occasion! Let's not bicker and argue about who killed who." – Monty Python”

• 🗣️ M.G.H: “The measured approach makes clear the importance of the issue to the US and allows India to back off in a vaguely dignified manner. The key will be the next time because any additional attempted or successful assassination would be treated more harshly”

• ⚔️ S.F: “Government-sponsored assassinations cannot be ignored.”