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Hi Intriguer. I spent three years working with Israelis and Palestinians as a diplomat in the Middle East from 2015-18. I still know many people there whose lives have been forever changed by the violence.
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Thatโs why I was so relieved to watch the four-day pause and hostage-prisoner swap unfold largely as agreed over the weekend.
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What comes next is less clear. It feels surreal to me that fighting will simply restart, as if that decision has already been imposed by some external force. In todayโs briefing we look at what might happen if (or when) the fighting does resume, and how positions mightโve changed after this past weekend.
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– Helen Zhang, Co-founder
TODAYโS NEWS
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Russia repels Ukrainian reprisal. Russia claims to have repelled a Ukrainian drone attack on the Moscow region a day after Ukrainian cities suffered their largest drone strikes since last winter. Russiaโs attack, which lasted six hours on Saturday, largely targeted Ukraineโs energy infrastructure ahead of the winter.
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Burlington shooting. Police have arrested a suspect in the shooting of three Palestinian students in Vermont. Itโs being investigated as a potential hate crime.
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Pencil it in. The foreign ministers of China, Japan, and South Korea met in Korea yesterday for the first time since 2019, vowing to work on a summit of their three leaders. But itโs not all beer and skittles: Chinaโs Wang Yi skipped the joint dinner and press conference, reflecting Beijingโs caution towards the two US allies.
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Musk does damage control.ย Elon Musk is due to meet Israeli President Isaac Herzog and hostage family members today. The billionaireโs surprise visit to Israel comes after his apparent endorsement of an anti-Semitic tweet, which earned him an official rebuke from the White House.
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Leaky deals. Leaked documents from this weekโs upcoming COP suggest the UAE intended to use its host country status to discuss oil deals with 15 nations. This will bolster scepticism around a petrostate hosting a climate change conference.
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Prophet Song wins Booker Prize. Irish writer Paul Lynchโs dystopian novel โProphet Songโ has won this yearโs Booker Prize. The chair of judges described the winning book as โsoul-shattering and trueโ.
TOP STORY
Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu unexpectedly visited troops in Gaza yesterday.
Israel-Hamas deal enters its fourth (and final?) day
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The Israel-Hamas deal proceeded mostly as agreed over the weekend, with a fourth and final agreed hostage-prisoner swap due today (Monday).
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Who are the people being exchanged?
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Hamas took ~240 hostages during its attack on Israel on 7 October, and itโs now on track to have released around 50 of those under this deal by todayโs end.
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Among the youngest released is a three-year-old girl, Yahel Shoham
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Among the oldest is Yaffa Adar, an 85-year-old Holocaust survivor, and
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Hamas has also released an American (and dual Israeli), Avigail Edan, who just turned four on Friday (Hamas killed her parents on October 7th).
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For its part, Israel published last Wednesday (to allow time for any appeals) a list of 300 Palestinians it could release; mostly males aged 14 to 18, plus ~33 women.
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Israel is on track to have released ~150 of those by the end of today.
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The youngest on the list is 14-year-old Adam Hassan Gheit, detained in May for allegedly attacking a police officer and throwing stones, and
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The oldest released so far is Hanan al-Barghouthi, the 59-year-old sister of Hamas figure Nael Al-Barghouti (she was arrested in September for unspecified alleged harm to โstate securityโ).
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Israel says it’s not freeing anyone convicted of murder, though the list does include those with violent convictions. For example, Israel has released Israa Jaabis, a woman jailed for detonating an explosive at a police checkpoint.
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Others released had reportedly been detained without charge or trial under Israel’s controversial โadministrative detentionโ regime.
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Meanwhile, thereโs been one main wobble in the deal so far: on Saturday, Hamas claimed Israel wasn’t allowing aid in as agreed, while Israel said Hamas wasn’t releasing mothers together with their children as agreed.
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Qatari and Egyptian mediation ended up salvaging the deal, and the Qataris are now reportedly mediating another unspecified dispute thatโs just emerged.
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What happens now?
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Hamas said yesterday itโs willing to extend the truce beyond today, and both US President Biden and Qatarโs foreign ministry have backed an extension.
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For its part, Israel says its conditions remain unchanged: itโll extend the pause by a day -and release more prisoners- for each additional 10 hostages Hamas frees.
INTRIGUEโS TAKE
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The weekend’s events have been revealing in a few ways.
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First, Hamas and Israel both sought to project strength while complying with their deal: Hamas released its third tranche of hostages in the middle of Gaza City (where Israel has established control), while Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu visited troops (๐ฎ๐ฑ) nearby in Gaza the very same day.
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Second, many of the released Palestinians have been returned to jubilant crowds in the West Bank, where the ailing Palestinian Authority (PA) holds power. This apparent Hamas result will highlight the PAโs weakness.
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Third, the numbers look better for Israel compared to 2011, when it traded 1,027 Palestinian prisoners (including the current Hamas chief in Gaza) for a single Israeli soldier; and that was after five years in captivity versus 50 days this time. Israel will believe its military response has made the difference.
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For now, the longer this pause extends, the harder itโll be (operationally and reputationally) for Israel to end it. But that’s still what it’s vowing to do.
SUPPORTED BY INCOGNI
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The step that will make the biggest difference is removing your personal information from data brokers and people search sites. These companies make it their business to prowl the web for your information, create detailed personal profiles on you, and spread them far and wide to anyone interested.
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You can either do this manually, which can take up to 300+ hours, or you can subscribe to Incogni with a 60% discount and let them do all the legwork for you in a fraction of the time.
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Data privacy is never a one-and-done dealโit requires consistent and ongoing effort. A subscription with Incogni can take that off your hands. And if you donโt like it? Thereโs a 30-day money-back guarantee.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHEREโฆ
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๐จ๐ณย China: Officials said yesterday (Sunday) that a local respiratory illness is caused by the flu and not a novel virus. The World Health Organisation asked officials for more information last week after reports emerged that hospitals in northern China were filling with patients.ย
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๐ซ๐ฎย Finland: Finish authorities warned Moscow theyโre prepared to close all border crossings after accusing Russia of pushing hundreds of undocumented migrants across their shared border. Estonia has levelled similar complaints against Russia.ย
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๐ต๐ญย Philippines: President Marcos Jr told reporters that the Philippines is debating whether to rejoin the International Criminal Court, five years after it left. Manila first withdrew after the court opened an investigation into the previous administrationโs violent war on drugs.ย
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๐ต๐ฆย Panama: Eight mine workers were injured over the weekend after protesters threw stones at a bus on which they were riding. Groups have been demonstrating for weeks against Canadian miner First Quantum, which recently won a lucrative but controversial copper mining contract.ย
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๐ธ๐ฑย Sierra Leone: President Julius Maada Bio declared a nationwide curfew yesterday after gunmen attacked military bases and prisons across the country. ECOWAS, the West African regional bloc, warned the plot was designed to โdisturb the peace and constitutional order.โ
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Your weekly roundup of the worldโs more surprising news.
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A Boeing 787 has landed in icy Antarctica for the first time ever.
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Australian authorities have rejected a coal plantโs request for โcarbon neutralโ status, saying the plant would actually be a top emitter.
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Police in New Zealand have responded to reports of hair sticking out the trunk of a car, only to discover it was a mannequin head.
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Colourful underwear has helped the feds identify a robbery suspect in New York, a year after the crime.
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And the pลซteketeke, a โweird, puking bird with a colourful mulletโ, has won New Zealandโs bird of the year award.
FLAG OF THE DAY
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In the tiny island nation of Palau, the moon is a symbol of peace, and the full moon is a time for celebration. Thatโs probably why Palauans put it on their flag. The nationโs flag bears some resemblance to that of Bangladesh – with one big difference. Can you guess what the blue background represents?
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Our rating: 9.0/10
DAILY POLL
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A group of EU states recently wrote a letter to the EU Commission, asking it to rethink its upcoming shipping emissions tax.
Do you think cargo ships should pay an emissions tax? |
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Thursdayโs poll: Where do you see US-India relations headed after the reported assassination attempt on US soil?
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๐จ๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ๏ธ Things will get messy, just like between India and Canada (23%)
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๐จ๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ฃ๏ธ It’ll be fine, in part because the US has taken a measured approach (26%)
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๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉย ๐งโ๐คโ๐ง It’ll be fine, because the US and India need each other too much (50%)
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ๏ธ Other (write in!) (1%)
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Your two cents:
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๐งโ๐คโ๐งย E.S: โIndia’s leaders make a poor attempt at puffing out their chests in light of their constant skirmishes with China. And because of internal strife with minorities within their borders. Having the U.S. and Canada lined up against them will be detrimental to India’s safety.โ
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๐งโ๐คโ๐งย Sz.K.B: โ”This is supposed to be a happy occasion! Let’s not bicker and argue about who killed who.” – Monty Pythonโ
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๐ฃ๏ธ M.G.H: โThe measured approach makes clear the importance of the issue to the US and allows India to back off in a vaguely dignified manner. The key will be the next time because any additional attempted or successful assassination would be treated more harshlyโ
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โ๏ธ S.F: โGovernment-sponsored assassinations cannot be ignored.โ