🌍 A humanitarian pause in Gaza?

Hi there Intriguer. Our team members are located all around the world. This helps us keep you in the loop, but it also means we’ve not all actually met yet! So our co-founder John put out a call, and team Intrigue will assemble in-person for the first time this week.

This means we won’t publish this coming Friday, Monday or Tuesday (10, 13, 14 November), but we’ll be back in your inboxes Wednesday the 15th!

Today’s briefing is a 4 min read:

• 🚨 A humanitarian pause in Gaza?

• 🇵🇭 The Philippines and Japan partner up. 

• ➕ Plus: A tough few years for democracy, how the papers are covering the latest developments out of Ukraine, and an unintended fireworks display in Canada.

1. 🇰🇵 North Korea: Several North Korean diplomatic missions will soon close in a possible sign of economic troubles. Pyongyang has ties with 150 countries but only operates missions in 50 of them.

2. 🇱🇧 Lebanon: The leader of Hezbollah delivered a much-anticipated speech in Beirut on Friday. He celebrated the 7 October Hamas attacks on Israel while saying they were “100% Palestinian”, and avoiding committing Hezbollah to a bigger role in the conflict.

3. 🇦🇺 Australia: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and President Xi Jinping of China will meet in Beijing tonight (Monday). Albanese is the first Australian leader to visit China in seven years after a string of bilateral disputes.

4. 🇺🇾 Uruguay: The foreign minister has resigned after leaked audio suggested he sought to impede a probe into how a convicted drug trafficker got a new passport. The scandal comes as President Pou is in the US for talks with Latin American leaders and President Biden.

5. 🇷🇼 Rwanda: President Paul Kagame has announced his country will allow Africans to visit Rwanda without a visa. Benin, the Gambia and Seychelles have initiated similar programs, while Kenya plans to join by end of the year.

🇮🇱 Israel | Geopolitics

A humanitarian pause in Gaza?

Israel said yesterday its forces have now split the Gaza Strip in two while encircling Gaza City in the enclave’s north. Israeli troops could soon enter the city, where Hamas forces are reportedly concentrated.

This staged escalation in theory aims to curb casualties, allow time for hostage negotiations to progress, and deflect international criticism.

But in reality, casualties keep rising, hostage negotiations keep dragging out, and international sentiment is hardly heading in Israel’s favour.

Israel's critics accuse it of collective punishment and possible war crimes in Gaza. In response, Israel says it's targeting Hamas, which it accuses of using residents as human shields while holding ~240 hostages.

So in this context, foreign ministers in the region pushed for a ceasefire on Saturday, but US Secretary of State Blinken dismissed the idea as a way for Hamas to regroup and attack Israel again (as it's vowed to do).

Instead, the US and others are pushing for a localised 'humanitarian pause' to allow more aid in and more people out. But Israel is resisting the idea, reiterating that its objectives continue to be:

• to free the ~240 hostages Hamas is holding, and

• “free Gaza from Hamas”.

Intrigue's take: We're seeing the world engage in rhetorical contortions to find a formulation that enough parties can accept here: a ‘humanitarian pause’, ‘ceasefire’, ‘truce’, ‘de-escalation’, ‘cessation of hostilities’, etc.

That’s often how diplomacy works. But it’s unclear whether any formulation could work right now. The parties are still so far apart.

So while we might see Israel agree to more humanitarian activities, it’s hard to see it shifting from its stated objectives right now.

📰 How newspapers covered…

Russia and Ukraine

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🇵🇭 Philippines | Geopolitics

The Philippines and Japan are teaming up 

Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr hosted his Japanese counterpart (Prime Minister Fumio Kishida) on Friday and Saturday (3-4 November).

Security topped the agenda, with Kishida announcing plans to:

• 🔊 Transfer advanced radar equipment to the Philippines

• 🛥️ Increase support for the Philippines coast guard, and

• 🎖️ Pursue talks on Japanese troops potentially deploying and conducting military exercises in the Philippines (and vice versa). 

And this came just a few days after Manila announced it would seek to partner with Tokyo (and other US allies) on $4.9B in troubled rail projects.

Intrigue’s take: Of course, the unspoken impetus here is a more assertive China in the region. The last president of the Philippines (Duterte) set aside territorial disputes with China while encouraging greater economic ties.

But since taking office last year, Marcos Jr has charted a different course. And in Japan, he’s found a partner with technical know-how, deep pockets, and a growing interest in regional defence ties. A perfect match.

➕ Extra Intrigue

Your weekly roundup of the world’s more surprising news

• A truck collision in Canada has triggered an unintended hour-long fireworks display after the festive cargo caught fire.

• A mother in Italy has won a court case to evict her two sons aged 40 and 42.

• British authorities have declined to issue a passport to a man called Kenny Fu-Kennard, deeming his surname too rude. Kenny added the ‘Fu-’ to his surname as a joke in 2016.

• This year’s Dutch Headwind Cycling Championships have been cancelled (because of high winds).

• And a Swiss football club has had to skip its ‘goal of the month’ award for October (because the team didn’t score any goals).

🗳️ Poll time!

📕 Report of the day

A new IDEA report claims democratic indicators around the world worsened for the sixth consecutive year in 2022. According to IDEA records, this is the worst period for democratic backsliding since 1975.

Thursday’s poll: Who do you think has the best traditional clothing?

🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇻🇳 Vietnam (Ao dai) (15%)

🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇰🇷 South Korea (Hanbok) (11%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇬🇭 Ghana (Kente) (6%)

🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 🇮🇳 India (Sari, lehenga) (23%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇧🇴 Bolivia (Pollera) (4%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan (Khan-atlas) (5%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland (Kilt) (28%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (8%)

Your two cents:

• 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 H.S: “I'm just saying…have you even worn one? Ultimate comfort.”

• ✍️ C: “They are all best! You can't compare one to another. Go there (to whichever place) and their traditional clothing suddenly makes sense the most and is the best!”

• Honourable mentions: Japan’s kimono, Guatemala’s huipil, Mexico’s mariachi and charro outfits, Norway’s bunad, Native American moccasins, and Ethiopia’s habesha kemis.