Plus: China hosts Arab and Muslim leaders
Hi Intriguer. All the signs I’m seeing today point to an Israel-Hamas pause being imminent (more on that below).
Incidentally, you’ll see below that today also marks the date when Bosnian, Croatian and Serbian leaders gathered at an air force base in Ohio to sign the Dayton Accords of 1995, ending the Bosnian War.
The lead negotiator (famed US diplomat, the late Richard Holbrooke) wanted to hold the talks in this secure Ohio venue to prevent the leaders from shaping negotiations via leaks to the press. The ploy worked, and the resulting peace deal almost earned Holbrooke a Nobel Prize.
These days, it’s much harder to wall-off negotiations like that. The leaks around this emerging Israel-Hamas deal are a reminder that every inch forward is only ever a well-sourced tweet away from shuffling two feet back.
– Jeremy Dicker, Managing Editor
A tight race in the Netherlands. Dutch voters will head to the polls tomorrow to elect their next leader after 13 years of uninterrupted Mark Rutte rule (he announced his retirement after his government collapsed in July). Pollsters are predicting a tight race, partly because up to 70% of voters are still undecided!
China’s property woes. Beijing is pressuring state banks to accelerate lending to private property developers in an attempt to revive the country’s ailing real estate sector. But at this point, we can’t help but wonder if it’s too little, too late.
X is on the warpath. X (formerly Twitter) has sued non-profit Media Matters after the group published a report claiming X had allowed ads to appear next to antisemitic content. Apple, Disney, IBM and others have since frozen advertising on the platform. This is the “thermonuclear lawsuit” X owner Elon Musk promised.
France on the naughty list. The EU could add France to the list of countries flouting the bloc’s rules around debt and deficit, while Italy and Germany aren’t far behind. But few in Europe are too surprised about ballooning government debt after a global pandemic and a war on the continent.
A role for China in Gaza? Foreign ministers from Arab and Muslim-majority countries met in Beijing yesterday (Monday), issuing a call for an “immediate ceasefire” in Gaza. China has little direct influence over the conflict, but hosting the summit (plus pushing for a ceasefire as UN Security Council president this month) helps burnish Beijing’s preferred branding as a peacemaker.
TOP STORY
A map of Gaza showing the extent of Israeli operations by 17 November (light blue). Source: @War_Mapper on X
An Israel-Hamas ‘hostages-for-pause’ deal?
Hamas may soon agree to release 50-100 women and children being held as hostages in Gaza, according to Israeli, Qatari, and American officials.
In exchange, Hamas wants Israel to:
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Pause combat operations for five days (including daily six-hour air surveillance pauses to allow Hamas to relocate hostages without the watchful eye of Israeli drones)
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Facilitate fuel transfers from the Rafah border crossing in southern Gaza to hospitals across the strip, and
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Release up to 300 Palestinians held in Israeli jails (reportedly including women and children).
The core tenets of the deal (hostages for a pause) have been agreed, but getting it across the finish line is complicated by the fact that Hamas officials aren’t welcome at the negotiating table. Instead, Qatar represents the Hamas position, communicating with the group’s Gaza-based leader, Yahya Sinwar.
Plus, both sides may still see reasons to ditch the talks.
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For Israel, any pause could give Hamas time to reorganise its capabilities, with the help of any newly available fuel supplies, and
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For Hamas, releasing hostages would remove a key source of leverage that it hoped to use to extract concessions from Israel.
But the apparent benefits of the deal likely outweigh the downsides.
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For Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu, domestic pressure to bring home the hostages has reached new highs (especially with reports that he turned down earlier hostage deals), and
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For Hamas, holding women and children hostage has gained it little (and it’ll still hold another ~190 hostages).
The other thing to keep in mind is that Israel and Hamas aren’t the only interested parties here. US President Biden has faced growing calls (both from inside his administration and beyond) to use US diplomatic muscle to pressure Israel into hitting pause.
And more than half the ~240 hostages held by Hamas have foreign passports from 26 countries, meaning their home governments (including the US, France, Germany, Argentina, and more) have a direct stake in this.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Don’t expect this to result in any long-term ceasefire.
Even as pressure persists and concerns emerge over a backlash among some Democratic voters, Biden has made clear he doesn’t back a ceasefire given the ongoing threat Hamas poses to Israel. Rather, he supports the idea of pauses to allow aid in and hostages out.
Netanyahu agrees. His goal of eliminating Hamas hasn’t changed, and his ambassador to the US has said any pause wouldn’t constitute a ceasefire.
As if to drive that point home, Israel last week warned residents of the city of Khan Younis (where Sinwar was born) to evacuate in preparation for a possible expansion of Israeli military operations into southern Gaza.
Also worth noting:
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The Washington Post reported and then removed a story on Saturday that a tentative deal had been reached, after White House officials disputed the claim.
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Other Gazan groups like Palestinian Islamic Jihad are also holding hostages.
SUPPORTED BY INCOGNI
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On today’s podcast episode: a special announcement from Intrigue.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇹🇼 Taiwan: After announcing a joint ticket for January’s election, coalition talks between Taiwan’s two main opposition parties now seem to have broken down. They initially agreed to let polls decide who would lead the ticket, but they later disagreed over the poll results.
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🇪🇸 Spain: An estimated 170,000 protestors gathered in Madrid over the weekend, opposing the controversial Catalan separatist amnesty deal that secured Pedro Sánchez his second term as Spain’s leader. A September poll showed some 70% of Spanish voters opposed the deal.
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🇮🇳 India: India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, has banned halal-certified food, arguing Islamic certification is part of a “pre-planned strategy to […] create divisions in society, and weaken the country”. The state is run by a Hindu monk from Prime Minister Modi’s ruling nationalist party.
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🇦🇷 Argentina: Local stocks rallied on Monday after news broke of maverick Javier Milei’s win in the country’s presidential elections. Milei, who embraces populist and libertarian policies, has pledged to usher in a new business-friendly era for the country.
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🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC): Campaigning for the DRC’s December presidential election kicked off over the weekend amid a surge of violence in the country’s east. M23 rebels, reportedly backed by Rwanda, have been advancing towards the provincial capital.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what’s been happening around the world on Twitter (X)
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🇪🇸 Folks in Spain were tweeting about “Shakira”, Colombia’s legendary pop star who settled a €7.5m tax fraud case with Spain yesterday.
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🇯🇵 People in Japan have tweeted about “デスマフィン屋” (death muffin shop) after muffins sold at a major international design event left several attendees sick.
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🇨🇦 And Canadians were tweeting about yesterday’s 110th “Grey Cup” championship game for the Canadian Football League, in which the Montreal Alouettes beat the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.
TODAY IN HISTORY
L to R: The Serbian, Bosnian and Croatian presidents signing the Dayton Agreement peace accord in November 1995. Credits: Eric Miller/Reuters.
On this day in 1995, the presidents of Bosnia, Croatia, and Serbia signed the Dayton Accords to end the Bosnian war. The deal established Bosnia as we know it today – a single nation composed of two parts: the Serb-populated Republic of Srpska, and the Croat-Bosniak-populated Federation of Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Incidentally, the NATO chief paid a visit there this week, expressing concern at some of the secessionist rhetoric emerging from local leaders.
DAILY POLL
Do you support a ceasefire in Gaza? Why or why not? |
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think switching to the US dollar could help Argentina's economy?
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👍 Yes, it's worth a try (62%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🤔 No, the costs of such a shock would be too great (35%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)
Your two cents:
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✍️ J.M.F: “Odds are there will be no dollarization due to constitutional and operational restraints; the more likely scenario is a larger freedom of currency selection for contracts, be it what local economists have dubbed a bimonetary system (USD-ARS) or something more comprehensive that might even include crypto.”
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👍 R.B: “Zimbabwe's lessons: lower inflation, no control over monetary policy, consumers and producers along for the U.S. Federal Reserve ride.”
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🤔 M.A: “The idea of switching to the dollar in an economy where one of the biggest issues is a chronic lack of international reserves is pure insanity.”