🌍 An Israel-Hamas deal hangs in the balance

Hi Intriguer. All eyes were on the Middle East this weekend amid hopes of an imminent Israel-Hamas truce.

But as today’s briefing lays out, the Israel-Hamas dynamics aren’t the only ones at play here. A US diplomat told us the recent conversations between US Secretary of State Blinken and his Israeli counterparts have been some of the most confrontational and raw in recent history.

And that’s before we touch on the fracturing within Israel’s ruling coalition, an election year in the US, and emerging divisions within Hamas itself.

We’ll dissect all the events of the weekend in our top story today.

– Helen Zhang, Co-Founder

China’s ‘Two Sessions’ are underway. We’ll brief you in the coming days on this key annual political and legislative event. In the meantime, one tidbit has already emerged – Premier Li Qiang (nominally China’s number two leader) will not hold a press conference after this year's formalities, breaking a three-decade tradition. The briefing once gave journalists a rare chance to ask questions, and was an opportunity for the premier to build his own public profile. The decision to axe this engagement reflects an increasingly opaque approach from Beijing as it grapples with a host of economic and geopolitical challenges.

OPEC+ to continue production cuts. The group of oil-producing states has decided to extend its voluntary oil output cut of 2.2 million barrels per day until mid-year, amid concerns around low global demand and prices. Saudi Arabia spearheaded the move together with Russia.

Japan’s stock market index hits new highs. The Nikkei 225 index just broke the 40,000 barrier for the first time, amid a continued surge in investor optimism, well-performing semiconductor stocks, and a weak yen. But the gains aren’t equally distributed, with several large-cap stocks such as Toyota seeing a fall.

Nikki Haley wins DC primary vote. Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley has won the District of Columbia’s Republican primary, her first such win, and breaking former president Donald Trump’s streak of primary victories. Polling suggests Sunday’s results are unlikely to translate into momentum in tomorrow’s ‘Super Tuesday’, when Republican voters in 15 states and one US territory will vote for their preferred candidate.

NATO begins military drills on new member turf. More than 20,000 soldiers from 13 nations are participating in NATO’s ‘Nordic Response-2024’ military drills, which kicked off today. The exercise will last nearly two weeks, and focuses on war preparedness in NATO’s northern territories, including new members Finland and Sweden, plus founding member Norway.

TOP STORY

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

It’s worth quickly looking at each of those three dynamics in turn.

First, the US vice president’s speech drew attention as the most strident US criticism of Israel since October, though it also looks to us like an election year reframing – rather than revision – of the US approach. Eg, the vice president still called on Hamas to accept the deal on the table and release the hostages, while declaring "the threat Hamas poses to the people of Israel must be eliminated."

Second, Gantz’s trip to Washington could've been a way for Israel to present a more moderate face to the US, and progress talks for how ‘the day after’ might look in Gaza. But with three out of four Israelis wanting Netanyahu to resign, and Gantz seemingly taking the trip without authorisation, the prime minister clearly saw it all as something else entirely: preparation for the ‘day after Netanyahu’ in Israel. Senior Netanyahu supporters are now openly dunking on Gantz, leaving the unity government looking more divided than ever.

And third, there’s Hamas. Its various demands over the weekend could just be a negotiating tactic. But given they emerged from different Hamas sources, they could also reflect divergent views within Hamas about the way forward.

Israeli officials are telling Hebrew-language media they suspect the Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, wants the conflict to continue through Ramadan (which starts next week) as a way to amplify Israel’s isolation. It was a Sinwar-aligned armed wing of Hamas that had issued Friday’s claim about the dead hostages, seemingly undercutting the leverage of the Hamas political wing just hours before the Cairo mediation talks were due to resume.

Also worth noting:

• Hamas has previously claimed it doesn’t know how many Israeli hostages are still alive, both because it’s lost contact with its own units in Gaza, and because some hostages are held by other groups.

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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

1. 🇹🇼 Taiwan: The US has reportedly deployed special forces in Taiwan on a permanent basis for the first time, as part of a training mission. Taipei first officially acknowledged the presence of US troops in Taiwan in 2021, though it was a years-long open secret beforehand.  

2. 🇪🇺 EU: Brussels is reportedly helping member countries prepare for a “worst case scenario” when a key Ukraine-Russia deal (allowing Russian gas to reach the EU via Ukraine) expires in December. Ukraine has said it has no plans to renew the deal, prompting concerns in countries that rely heavily on Russian gas, such as Hungary and Austria.

3. 🇻🇳 Vietnam: Local Communist Party leaders are cracking down on civil society and warning against the dangers of partnerships with foreign governments, according to leaked documents. The party directive flags a risk that foreign influences might “creat[e] the premise for the formation of domestic political opposition groups”. 

4. 🇭🇹 Haiti: Prime Minister Ariel Henry, who rose to power after the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, has agreed to hold elections by August 2025. Meanwhile, his government has announced a state of emergency after gangs stormed the country’s main prison. 

5. 🇮🇷 Iran: Turnout in Friday’s parliamentary elections hit a record low of 40.6%, suggesting widespread dissatisfaction with the regime, and undermining its claims to popular legitimacy. These were the first elections since Iran’s mass anti-government protests of 2022.

EXTRA INTRIGUE

🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news 

• A Canadian lawyer is under investigation after allegedly using ChatGPT to make up fake cases to use in her legal research. 

• A French satirical tabloid which is only published on leap years just celebrated its 12th-ever edition. 

• Dubai has hosted its first-ever jet suit race, where folks in Iron Man-like suits race across a water course to the finish line. 

• Up to 27 ultra-rare collectable cards featuring hockey superstar Wayne Gretzky as a rookie could be hiding in an unopened lot of collection cards, which sold for $3.72M at auction last week. 

• A runaway train in India has somehow travelled driverless for 70km (40 miles) at high speeds before coming to a stop. 

• And angry parents in Scotland have requested a refund after a Willy Wonka experience turned out to be a bleakly decorated warehouse (complete with some unhappy Oompa-Loompas).

LAWSUIT OF THE DAY

Elon Musk launching a lawsuit isn’t always newsworthy, but it is when the Tesla CEO and Twitter owner sues OpenAI, a global AI pioneer. The billionaire is accusing OpenAI (which he helped found) of abandoning its original mission of an open-source technology free from profit pressures, by allying with tech giant Microsoft. Musk is hoping to compel OpenAI to make all its research and technology freely accessible to the public.

DAILY POLL

Last Thursday’s poll: Should the West use frozen Russian assets to buy weapons for Ukraine?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⚖️ Yes, it's only fair (68%)

🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💸 No, it’s a double-edged sword and will trigger a free-for-all (29%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)

Your two cents:

• ⚖️ O: “It's morally and economically appropriate to use Russian profits to bolster Ukraine's defences against Russian aggression.”

• 💸 S.P: “Freezing Russia's assets to preclude their use to kill Ukrainians is one thing; stealing Russia's assets in order to kill Russians is quite another and is an act of war itself.”

• ⚖️ C.B: “There is an argument that the money could also be applied to rebuild damage in Ukraine caused by Russian air raids.”

• ✍️ E: “These assets belong to the Russian people. Putin won't be there forever.”