🌍 Another plot twist in Argentina’s elections

Hi there Intriguer. You’d think if you scored an invite to a French aristocratic banquet in the 1700s, you’d be in for a real treat. But Antoine-Augustin Parmentier just served his guests potatoes. Endless potatoes. He was on a mission to popularise the spud, and he won: the Paris Faculty of Medicine officially declared potatoes ‘edible’ in 1772.

Today’s briefing is a 5 min read:

• 🇦🇷 Another plot twist out of Argentina.

• 🇨🇳 China restricts its graphite exports.

• ➕ Plus: Gaza from above, how the papers are covering the arrest of Vietnamese rare earth executives, and a high-stakes errand in Thailand.

1. 🇮🇩 Indonesia: Defence Minister Prabowo announced last night (Sunday) he’s running for president in 2024, with the outgoing president’s 36-year-old son as his running mate. Last week, a court loosened rules that required candidates to be 40 years or older.

2. 🇪🇺 European Union: The top two EU leaders, Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel, visited the White House for talks on Friday. The EU-US Summit sought to project a united EU-US front in the Middle East and Ukraine.

3. 🇨🇳 China: The Pentagon estimated last week that China’s nuclear arsenal now includes around 500 warheads, with an aim to triple that number by 2035. Russia has the most warheads in the world at around 6,000, followed by the US with around 5,500.

4. 🇻🇪 Venezuela: The opposition yesterday held its first presidential primary since 2012, with a view to ending Nicolas Maduro’s decade-long rule next year. A government-imposed server blockage has reportedly delayed the vote count, and authorities recently barred the opposition frontrunner from office.

5. 🇨🇫 Central African Republic: The International Criminal Court has dropped charges against a regional militia leader, citing a lack of evidence and available witnesses. The defendant stood accused of committing war crimes during an ethnic conflict in 2013 and 2014.

🇦🇷 Argentina | Elections

Another plot twist out of Argentina

The ruling, left-leaning Peronist coalition had a surprise win in Argentina’s first-round presidential election yesterday (Sunday). But since no candidate won enough votes, there’ll now be a final run-off election next month.

Why the surprise?

Argentina's economy is a mess. Since 2012, it's spent more time in recession than out. Inflation (138%) and poverty (40%) are both at recent record highs.

So few expected the ruling party to be asked back, and the president didn't bother seeking re-election. Even his own vice president blamed him (🇦🇷).

In that context, 12 of the past 14 leading polls projected a victory for the outsider opposition candidate, Milei. Tapping into popular discontent, his brash style and unorthodox ideas captured voter attention:

• We’re talking big hair, epic sideburns, a former rock singer life, huge cloned dogs, ripping an actual chainsaw at rallies, smashing a 'central bank piñata' on live TV, viral Tiktok videos, etc

His ideas include abolishing various ministries, and replacing the peso with the US dollar (like in Ecuador and El Salvador). The vibe was there in his campaign slogan: "I didn't come to guide lambs, I came to wake up lions."

He had a surprise win in August's primaries and was mobbed by crowds yesterday. But this momentum might've also propelled him to cross what many Argentinians consider red lines, like:

• referring to Pope Francis (a fellow Argentinian) as "evil", and

• reopening wounds from Argentina's bitter 1970s dictatorship.

Even the Pope himself felt compelled to throw some thinly veiled shade back at Milei last week. And getting into a public biff with the Pope is not generally considered a vote-winning strategy in Argentina.

So Massa seems to have benefited from voter hesitancy towards Milei, while doubling down on his own social spending (something Milei vows to cut) and leveraging his dominant party machine (something Milei lacks).

With the third (centre-right) candidate gone, voters now return to the polls on 19 November to choose between Massa and Milei as their next president.

Intrigue's take: Elections love a good 'momentum' story, but it'd be a brave and breathless commentator to suggest the Peronists now have momentum. Despite winning this round, it's still potentially the party's worst ever result.

And if Milei (a one-man party) ends up winning next month, he'll have a remarkable lack of party power behind him.

So both Massa and Milei struck a conciliatory tone at post-election rallies last night, seeking to woo third-party voters ahead of the final round.

But no matter who wins next month, they’ll be limping rather than roaring into the presidency. And the markets are already pricing in a 95% chance they’ll (again) have to default on Argentina's debt.

Also worth noting:

• To win in the first round, a candidate needed 45% of the vote, or 40% but with a winning margin of 10% or more.

📰 How newspapers covered…

Vietnam’s arrests of rare earth industry professionals

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🇨🇳 China | Geo-economics

China tightens its mineral exports (again)

China’s commerce and customs authorities announced new graphite export controls (🇨🇳) on Friday (20 October).

Graphite isn’t just for grade school pencils. It’s also a key component in batteries, electric motors, and nuclear reactors – all things the world needs for its energy transition.

And China’s got a lot of it. In fact, according to the US Geological Survey, China produces around two-thirds of the world’s graphite and refines 90% of the spherical graphite used to produce EV battery anodes.

Intrigue’s take: We doubt it’s a coincidence these controls came just a few days after the US announced additional curbs on AI chip sales to China.

Right as the US is seeking to grow its share of the global EV market, Beijing is using its rare earths dominance to signal it can tap Washington’s brakes. Its message? Trade wars cut both ways, so back off.

But we don’t see the US backtracking now. So our message? Maybe invest in graphite suppliers in Brazil, Madagascar, Mozambique, Tanzania and Turkey.

Also worth noting:

• China introduced similar controls on gallium and germanium in July. It didn’t export any of the two metals the following month.

➕ Extra Intrigue

Your weekly roundup of the world’s more surprising news

• Polish police have arrested a thief who posed as a mannequin to rob a jewellery store after hours.

• A Thai ambulance driver has come under criticism after stopping to purchase fried bananas while taking a patient to hospital (in his defence, he somehow completed the banana errand in 3 seconds).

• In Canada, locals have rescued a giant tortoise they described as “bigger than the platter you’d use to serve 24 people a Thanksgiving turkey”, after the endangered African reptile was dumped in a field of bok choy.

• A hungry bear has broken into a Connecticut home to help herself to some frozen lasagne.

• And the world now has a new hottest chilli after America’s Pepper X dethroned the reigning champion, the Carolina Reaper.

🗳️ Poll time!

🗺️ Map of the day

Israel continues to bombard targets in the Gaza Strip following the deadly Hamas terrorist attacks of 7 October. The Israeli Air Force says it dropped about 6,000 bombs in the first week of the war, with one satellite analysis suggesting 4.3% of the enclave’s buildings were destroyed that same week.

UN agencies confirmed a first humanitarian delivery into Gaza on Saturday, followed by a second yesterday (Sunday).

Thursday’s poll: Which drugs policy would you enact first?

🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🧲 More customs scans at ports (18%)

🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 🤝 More collaboration with countries of origin (24%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 💊 Work on decreasing drug demand (36%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👮 Bolster law enforcement (6%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🧪 Crack down on local production (7%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (9%)

Your two cents:

• ✍️ J.B: “Make drugs legal… Regulate them to significantly reduce risks for users, tax them to create a government fund to help those who are in need such as the people who are addicted.”

• ✍️ D.K: “Invest in AI / Blockchain technology that automates the screening of cargo at a mass scale.”

• 🤝 U.S: “A better collaboration with countries of origin should include a better collaboration with the intermediate parties in charge of transporting those shipments.”