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Todayโs newsletter supported by: |
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Hi there Intriguer.ย Youโd think if you scored an invite to a French aristocratic banquet in the 1700s, youโd be in for a real treat. But Antoine-Augustin Parmentier just served his guests potatoes. Endless potatoes. He was on a mission to popularise the spud, and he won: the Paris Faculty of Medicine officially declared potatoes โedibleโ in 1772.
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Todayโs briefing is a 5 min read:
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๐ฆ๐ท Another plot twist out of Argentina.
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๐จ๐ณย China restricts its graphite exports.
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โ Plus: Gaza from above, how the papers are covering the arrest of Vietnamese rare earth executives, and a high-stakes errand in Thailand.
โฑ๏ธ Around the world in sixty seconds
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๐ฎ๐ฉย Indonesia: Defence Minister Prabowo announced last night (Sunday) heโs running for president in 2024, with the outgoing presidentโs 36-year-old son as his running mate. Last week, a court loosened rules that required candidates to be 40 years or older.
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๐ช๐บย European Union:ย The top two EU leaders, Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel, visited the White House for talks on Friday. The EU-US Summit sought to project a united EU-US front in the Middle East and Ukraine.
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๐จ๐ณย China:ย The Pentagon estimated last week that Chinaโs nuclear arsenal now includes around 500 warheads, with an aim to triple that number by 2035. Russia has the most warheads in the world at around 6,000, followed by the US with around 5,500.
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๐ป๐ชย Venezuela: The opposition yesterday held its first presidential primary since 2012, with a view to ending Nicolas Maduroโs decade-long rule next year. A government-imposed server blockage has reportedly delayed the vote count, and authorities recently barred the opposition frontrunner from office.
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๐จ๐ซย Central African Republic: The International Criminal Court has dropped charges against a regional militia leader, citing a lack of evidence and available witnesses. The defendant stood accused of committing war crimes during an ethnic conflict in 2013 and 2014.
๐ฆ๐ท Argentina | Elections
A screengrab from Argentinian TV as initial results were announced last night.
Image courtesy of TN.
Another plot twist out of Argentina
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The ruling, left-leaning Peronist coalition had a surprise win in Argentinaโs first-round presidential election yesterday (Sunday). But since no candidate won enough votes, thereโll now be a final run-off election next month.
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Why the surprise?
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Argentina’s economy is a mess. Since 2012, it’s spent more time in recession than out. Inflation (138%) and poverty (40%) are both at recent record highs.
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So few expected the ruling party to be asked back, and the president didn’t bother seeking re-election. Even his own vice president blamed him (๐ฆ๐ท).
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In that context, 12 of the past 14 leading polls projected a victory for the outsider opposition candidate, Milei. Tapping into popular discontent, his brash style and unorthodox ideas captured voter attention:
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Weโre talking big hair, epic sideburns, a former rock singer life, huge cloned dogs, ripping an actual chainsaw at rallies, smashing a ‘central bank piรฑata‘ on live TV, viral Tiktok videos, etc
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His ideas include abolishing various ministries, and replacing the peso with the US dollar (like in Ecuador and El Salvador). The vibe was there in his campaign slogan: “I didn’t come to guide lambs, I came to wake up lions.“
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He had a surprise win in August’s primaries and was mobbed by crowds yesterday. But this momentum might’ve also propelled him to cross what many Argentinians consider red lines, like:
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Even the Pope himself felt compelled to throw some thinly veiled shade back at Milei last week. And getting into a public biff with the Pope is not generally considered a vote-winning strategy in Argentina.
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So Massa seems to have benefited from voter hesitancy towards Milei, while doubling down on his own social spending (something Milei vows to cut) and leveraging his dominant party machine (something Milei lacks).
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With the third (centre-right) candidate gone, voters now return to the polls on 19 November to choose between Massa and Milei as their next president.
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Intrigue’s take: Elections love a good ‘momentum’ story, but it’d be a brave and breathless commentator to suggest the Peronists now have momentum. Despite winning this round, it’s still potentially the party’s worst ever result.
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And if Milei (a one-man party) ends up winning next month, he’ll have a remarkable lack of party power behind him.
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So both Massa and Milei struck a conciliatory tone at post-election rallies last night, seeking to woo third-party voters ahead of the final round.
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But no matter who wins next month, theyโll be limping rather than roaring into the presidency. And the markets are already pricing in a 95% chance theyโll (again) have to default on Argentina’s debt.
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Also worth noting:
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To win in the first round, a candidate needed 45% of the vote, or 40% but with a winning margin of 10% or more.
๐ฐ How newspapers coveredโฆ
Vietnamโs arrests of rare earth industry professionals
London, UK |
โVietnam arrests rare earth industry officials, casting shadow over plans to rival China โ |
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โVietnam arrests 6 people, seizes 13,715 tonnes of ore in rare earth caseโ |
Hanoi, Vietnam |
โThรกi Dฦฐฦกng Group Joint Stock Companyโs head detained for illegally exploiting, consuming rare earth oresโ |
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Todayโs newsletter is supported by: Blinkist
Key insights in under 15 minutes!
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Key ideas from bestselling non-fiction books, distilled by experts into bitesize text and audio. Explore our vast library of over 5,500 titles and stay up-to-date with 40 new titles that are added each month. Join the reading revolution!
๐จ๐ณ China | Geo-economics
China tightens its mineral exports (again)
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Chinaโs commerce and customs authorities announced new graphite export controls (๐จ๐ณ) on Friday (20 October).
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Graphite isnโt just for grade school pencils. Itโs also a key component in batteries, electric motors, and nuclear reactors – all things the world needs for its energy transition.
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And Chinaโs got a lot of it. In fact, according to the US Geological Survey, China produces around two-thirds of the worldโs graphite and refines 90% of the spherical graphite used to produce EV battery anodes.
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Intrigueโs take: We doubt itโs a coincidence these controls came just a few days after the US announced additional curbs on AI chip sales to China.
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Right as the US is seeking to grow its share of the global EV market, Beijing is using its rare earths dominance to signal it can tap Washingtonโs brakes. Its message? Trade wars cut both ways, so back off.
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But we donโt see the US backtracking now. So our message? Maybe invest in graphite suppliers in Brazil, Madagascar, Mozambique, Tanzania and Turkey.
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Also worth noting:
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China introduced similar controls on gallium and germanium in July. It didnโt export any of the two metals the following month.
โ Extra Intrigue
Your weekly roundup of the worldโs more surprising news
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Polish police have arrested a thief who posed as a mannequin to rob a jewellery store after hours.
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A Thai ambulance driver has come under criticism after stopping to purchase fried bananas while taking a patient to hospital (in his defence, he somehow completed the banana errand in 3 seconds).
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In Canada, locals have rescued a giant tortoise they described as โbigger than the platter youโd use to serve 24 people a Thanksgiving turkeyโ, after the endangered African reptile was dumped in a field of bok choy.
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A hungry bear has broken into a Connecticut home to help herself to some frozen lasagne.
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And the world now has a new hottest chilli after Americaโs Pepper X dethroned the reigning champion, the Carolina Reaper.
๐ณ๏ธ Poll time!
Who would you have supported in Argentina’s presidential election yesterday? |
๐บ๏ธ Map of the day
Credits: The Washington Post
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Israel continues to bombard targets in the Gaza Strip following the deadly Hamas terrorist attacks of 7 October. The Israeli Air Force says it dropped about 6,000 bombs in the first week of the war, with one satellite analysis suggesting 4.3% of the enclaveโs buildings were destroyed that same week.
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Thursdayโs poll: Which drugs policy would you enact first?
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๐จ๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐งฒ More customs scans at ports (18%)
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๐จ๐จ๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ค More collaboration with countries of origin (24%)
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๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉย ๐ Work on decreasing drug demand (36%)
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๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ฎ Bolster law enforcement (6%)
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๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐งช Crack down on local production (7%)
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๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ๏ธ Other (write in!) (9%)
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Your two cents:
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โ๏ธ J.B: โMake drugs legalโฆ Regulate them to significantly reduce risks for users, tax them to create a government fund to help those who are in need such as the people who are addicted.โ
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โ๏ธ D.K: โInvest in AI / Blockchain technology that automates the screening of cargo at a mass scale.โ
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๐คย U.S: โA better collaboration with countries of origin should include a better collaboration with the intermediate parties in charge of transporting those shipments.โ