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IN TODAYโS EDITION
1๏ธโฃ What the heck is Havana Syndrome? |
2๏ธโฃ Peruvian president raided over Rolexes |
3๏ธโฃ Harry Kane – the Colossus of the Rhine |
Hi { First Name | Intriguer }}. Iโm flat out excited today to let you know thereโs a brand-new member of Team Intrigue, Taylor Gehrcke!ย ๐ย
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Taylor will be Intrigueโs Head of Events and he comes to us from the UN and Axios – itโs hard to think of a better fit! His mission (which heโs already chosen to accept) is to remind everyone geopolitics events donโt have to be boring – I know heโs going to crush it.
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Stay tuned for our next in-person event and in the meantime, letโs dive into the weekendโs latest updates on the mysterious Havana Syndrome.
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P.S. Got event ideas for Taylor? I know he wonโt mind me sharing his deets!
THE HEADLINES
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Airstrike on Iranian consulate in Damascus kills senior Iranian general
A suspected Israeli airstrike destroyed the Iranian diplomatic mission in Damascus yesterday (Monday), killing several people including Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander in Iranโs Revolutionary Guards Corps. Israel hasnโt commented, while Tehran has vowed to retaliate.
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Foreign NGO workers killed in Gaza airstrike
Seven foreign aid workers were killed yesterday after an airstrike hit their convoy. World Central Kitchen, a US-based NGO providing food aid to Gaza, has accused Israel of targeting its vehicles โdespite coordinating movements with the IDFโ. The Israeli military says itโs conducting โan in-depth examination at the highest levelsโ into the โtragic incidentโ, though it hasnโt commented on whether it was responsible.
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Turkish opposition deals blow to Erdoฤanโs party
The main Turkish opposition group has emerged victorious in Sundayโs local elections, securing 14 out of 30 urban areas, including key cities such as Istanbul and Ankara. While Erdoฤan himself wasnโt on the ballot, this weekendโs vote was widely seen as a key electoral test for his party. Ekrem ฤฐmamoฤlu, the mayor of Istanbul and a key political rival, celebrated his re-election by tweeting โthe decline of democracy ends nowโ.
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Trump makes $175M bondย
Former US President Donald Trump has posted a $175M bond to put a civil fraud ruling on hold while he works to appeal it. The state of New Yorkโs attorney-general had said she would enforce the ruling and seize Trumpโs assets if he didnโt post bail.
US and UK sign first bilateral agreement on AI safety
The two trans-Atlantic allies have become the first countries to sign a bilateral agreement detailing areas for cooperation when evaluating and assessing risks from AI models.
TOP STORY
Another twist in the Havana Syndrome saga
The US embassy in Havana. Credits: Nicholas Brennan/Project Brazen
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A joint investigation by 60 Minutes, The Insider, and Der Spiegel (๐ฉ๐ช) has brought Havana Syndrome back into the headlines. Here’s what you need to know.
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Havana Syndrome – or โAnomalous Health Incidentsโ (AHIs) in official Washington circles – refers to symptoms thatโve hit US diplomats and spies over the past decade, including strange sounds, sensations, vertigo, nausea, and pain.
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Public reports first emerged after US diplomats and spies (plus Canadian officials) experienced these symptoms while stationed in Havana in 2016.
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The number of recognised cases is now in the hundreds (out of a thousand or so that have been investigated), spanning cities like Berlin, Bogota, Guangzhou, DC, Delhi, Hanoi, London, Vienna, Vilnius, Taipei, Tbilisi and elsewhere.
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So, given the Bond-esque facts and these Bourne-esque locations, thereโve long been concerns US officials have been targeted with a non-lethal weapon.
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And duelling studies have examined and coined various theories, but two of the most common explanations these days include:
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A kind of pulsed radio frequency energy, cited (along with ultrasound to a lesser degree) as “plausible” in a 2022 US intel report, and
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Natural causes like psychosocial factors, though the same report above says Havana Syndrome cases don’t meet most psychogenic criteria
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Then in 2023, US intelligenceย assessed (and reiterated last month): itโs “very unlikely” a foreign adversary is responsible; thereโs “no credible evidenceโ any rival has such a weapon; these theories emerged after early flawed studies on the patients; and their symptoms were probably the result of natural factors like โpreexisting conditions, conventional illnesses, and environmental factors.โ
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So, where does this weekend’s joint media investigation get us?
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It cites new cases, including one officer mysteriously knocked out cold in Frankfurt in 2014, and another hit at last year’s NATO summit in Vilnius
-
It uses various methods to geolocate members of Russia’s secretive โUnit 29155โ (the destabilisation / hit-squad within Russian military intelligence) to times and places where Havana Syndrome cases occurred
-
It cites a leaked Kremlin document to show a Unit 29155 officer had been working on โnonlethal acoustic weaponsโ
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It shows relevant members of Unit 29155 have since been rewarded with promotion to sought-after Kremlin positions
-
It features a former US intelligence investigator claiming a common link for many of the victims was their work against Russia, and
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It quotes a Russian spy chief boasting that โhundreds of employees of foreign intelligence services… have been identified and neutralised.โ
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The investigation concludes, saying “Havana Syndrome shows all the markings of a Russian hybrid warfare operation“. But okayโฆย why would Russia do this?
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Moscow would have specific reasons, such as to tank pivotal US efforts in Havana (2016) and Kyiv (2014); or the historic 2021 visit to Vietnam by the US vice president; or the US president’s attendance at last yearโs NATO summit in Vilnius. US officials were hit with Havana Syndrome around all these times.
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Moscow would have general reasons too, like incapacitating rival spies and diplomats without crossing the lethal threshold; hitting a rivalโs morale and recruitment; and fostering broader paranoia and dissent across Washington.
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So where does that leave us?
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Those with Havana Syndrome have found some vindication in this weekendโs reports, while expressing frustration at the slow or sceptical US responses theyโve encountered. Others, bemused by all the juicy details, remain dismissive.
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And meanwhile, responsible or not, Russia has probably enjoyed the spectacle.
INTRIGUEโS TAKE
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The way this has all played out in public looks like a Rorschach Test: depending on how you see the evidence, you’re either a war-monger seeking broader conflict with Russia / more support for Ukraine; a rube still believing Hollywood fantasies about Russia; or a tie-dye clad peacenik sticking your head in the sand rather than confronting what this is and where it all takes us.
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There are folks we respect who’ve reached each of these conclusions. There are also folks we (ahem) don’t respect, who’ve reached each of these conclusions. That makes for a confusing context – and we can’t imagine what it’s like for those still wrestling with Havana Syndrome and its symptoms.
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But we’ll say this – we know true tales of Western diplomats returning to their residences in Moscow to find a deuce on the dinner table, or simply being beaten up by Russian spooks. So we find nothing surprising about Russia’s security services crossing lines to harm rivals where they feel justified.
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More surprising (though not out of the question) would be Russia developing this weapon without leaving โcredible evidenceโ, especially given the degree to which US intelligence appears to have penetrated Russiaโs inner sanctum.
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We’re also old enough (barely?) to remember when US authorities initially dismissed Gulf War Syndrome, until evidence led Washington to confront it.
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Also worth noting:
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Cuba released its own scientific study (๐จ๐บ) in 2021, concluding that “the narrative of the ‘mysterious syndrome’ is not scientifically acceptable in any of its components.“
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Russia has continued to issue denials, describing the allegations as โbaselessโ and โunfoundedโ.
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US President Joe Biden signed the Helping American Victims Affected by Neurological Attacks (HAVANA) Act in 2021, aimed at supporting those diagnosed with Havana Syndrome.
A MESSAGE FROM POLICYWARE
Online course taught by world-leading experts on the most pressing public policy challenges
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Policyware provides online courses taught by world-leading experts on the most pressing public policy issues such as developments in Chinaโs digital governance, the impact of climate change on international trade, global developments in privacy law and policy, and how labor standards and human rights are being enforced across global supply chains.
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Upcoming Policyware Deep Dive into Climate and Trade: April 15 โ May 1, 2024
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Do you want to learn how climate change policies affect international trade? Enroll in this upcoming deep dive into climate change and international trade taught by Prof. Emily Lydgate.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHEREโฆ
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๐จ๐ณย China: Chinaโs manufacturing activity expanded by the highest rate in over a year in March, prompting cautious enthusiasm for an economic recovery among some China-watchers. However, deflation has proved stubborn as producer and consumer prices continue to dip.ย
-
๐ฉ๐ชย Germany: 15 coal plants were shut down over Easter as Germany works towards its 2030 coal phaseout goals. The plants, which Berlin said were โneither necessary nor economicalโ, were initially kept online longer after energy prices spiked due to the Russo-Ukraine War.
-
๐ฎ๐ฉย Indonesia: President-elect and Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto met with Chinese President Xi Jinping yesterday (Monday) in a rare pre-inauguration visit. Beijing usually welcomes VIPs after they take office, so this pre-inauguration trip could reflect Beijing’s urgency to win Jakarta over as tensions simmer in the South China Sea.
-
๐ต๐ชย Peru: Police have raided the home of President Dina Boluarte as part of an inquiry into allegations the president had failed to declare her ownership of several Rolex watches. Her newly-appointed prime minister criticised the operation as โdisproportionate and unconstitutionalโ.ย
-
๐ธ๐ฆย Saudi Arabia: NGOs have criticised the unopposed election of Saudi Arabia as chair of the UN Commission on the Status of Women. The appointment, coming after the outgoing Philippines chair was reportedly pressured to hand over the baton early, is seen as an attempt to burnish the kingdomโs image.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
๐คฃ Your weekly roundup of the worldโs lighter newsย
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The infamous door prop that saved (only) Rose in The Titanic has sold at auction for $718,750.
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The European Central Bank is facing mutiny from its staff after the canteen switched from extra virgin olive oil to a lower quality condiment.ย
-
North Korea has censored a British gardening show hostโs jeans, which are banned in the hermit kingdom as a form of US imperialism.
-
Louis Vuitton has made a custom trunk for the Olympic and Paralympic torches, ready for this yearโs Paris 2024 games.
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An Australian man has been saved after spending over 30 hours in a drain to escape police.ย
-
And it turns out a rescued baby hedgehog in the UK was just a furry hat pom pom.ย
TWEET/POST OF THE DAY
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Whoever said Germans donโt have a sense of humour clearly isnโt following the German embassy in Londonโs Twitter account. In their annual April Fools tweet, the embassy pledged to greet visiting UK football fans with a 20m-high cutout of English footballer Harry Kane, who also plays for German club Bayern Munich. ย
DAILY POLL
What do you think is causing Havana Syndrome? |
Last Thursdayโs poll: Who do you think should take the first step to repair US-China ties?
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๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐บ๐ธ USA (11%)
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๐จ๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐จ๐ณ China (22%)
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๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉย ๐ค Both (47%)
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๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ Neither, there’s no point (18%)
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ๏ธ Other (write in!) (2%)
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Your two cents:
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๐คย O.B: โIt takes two to tango, as they say.โ
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๐จ๐ณย H.N.T: โFrom the outside, China has been more aggressive in pushing boundaries with IP theft from US companies/mil-industrial complex and general hacking, so should start rebuilding trust by eliminating those programs.โ
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๐บ๐ธย M.A: โSome of China’s biggest concerns are very close to home, which puts them in a more defensive stance. The US taking a less intrusive posture in disputes around China would have a bigger impact in their relations than anything China could do.โ
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