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Hi Intriguer. Just like former UK PM David Cameron, we’re back! I can only hope you’re a little less shocked than these TV presenters were when they learned the former PM had been brought in from the cold to be foreign secretary.
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Today we’re focusing on what to expect when Xi and Biden meet in San Francisco later this morning. It might be the last time the two leaders meet before the US presidential election next November.
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Gaza continues to dominate headlines as well, with the latest reports suggesting Israel has launched an operation inside (and now controls) the al-Shifa hospital, which Israel says is atop a Hamas command centre.
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P.S. You’ll notice we’ve made some tweaks to the newsletter in response to your feedback. Our mission is to make Intrigue your daily one-stop shop for global news and analysis – so hit reply and let us know how we’re doing.
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– John Fowler, Co-Founder
TODAY’S PAPERS
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THE US BACKS ISRAEL ON AL-SHIFA HOSPITAL. For the first time, the White House has backed Israel’s assertion that Hamas operates its command centres from beneath hospitals in Gaza. The US still insists Israel mustn’t strike the hospital from the air. (Wall Street Journal, US, $)
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ANOTHER RUSSIAN VISIT TO DPRK. It’s now Russia’s resources minister who’s in North Korea, following earlier visits by the foreign and defence ministers. The two countries have denied doing any arms deals, though their leaders pledged closer military cooperation in September. (Yonhap News Agency, South Korea)
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PUTIN TO GO IT ALONE. Russian President Vladimir Putin will reportedly run as an independent in next year’s elections, both to position himself as a confident ‘war leader’ plus presumably to distance himself from his unpopular United Russia party. Either way, care to wager who’ll win? (The Telegraph, UK)
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NOT GREAT EXPECTATIONS. APEC leaders are unlikely to announce any major deals in San Francisco today, while talks on the US-led ‘Indo-Pacific Economic Framework’ appear to have stalled. (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong)
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XI MAKES NICE. Chinese social media users seem bemused by their government’s recent efforts to soften anti-US propaganda ahead of President Xi’s current visit to the US. One netizen put it bluntly: “So, going forward, do we or don’t we need to hate America? So unclear.” (New York Times, US)
TOP STORY
What (and who) we’re watching at APEC this week
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Leaders from the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) group have landed in San Francisco for the bloc’s annual summit of leaders.
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1. The Xi-Biden meeting
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US President Biden and Chinese President Xi will meet later this morning (Wednesday) in their second face-to-face meeting since Biden took office. They don’t agree on much, but neither leader is in the mood for a fight right now:
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Xi is grappling with an inbox full of economic challenges at home as well as plenty of problems abroad (China currently has 14 border disputes with its neighbours).
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Biden is managing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East while suiting up for what’s sure to be a bruising re-election campaign at home.
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So stabilisation suits them both. Beyond that, expectations for any meaningful outcomes are low, but here’s what we’re hearing:
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Both sides might agree to resume military-to-military contact and to keep AI out of certain weapons systems.
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China has already signalled it’ll crack down on the precursors for making fentanyl, and that it could agree to buy more American soy and aircraft.
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In return, the US might agree to lift sanctions on a Chinese security agency with alleged links to the repression of Uyghur Muslims.
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2. The CEO summit
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Leaders from Tesla, Microsoft, Exxon, and other corporate giants are also in San Francisco to rub elbows with world leaders.
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Dinner with Xi (at $2,000 a pop) is the most coveted ticket in town, as companies look for reassurance after his recent moves (like a new data security law) further spooked the business community.
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From Xi’s perspective, China needs to stem the outward tide of foreign investment, which means he faces the uncomfortable (and unlikely) prospect of loosening the economic reins a little. It’ll be interesting to see how positive (or otherwise) the US business community is after the meetings.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE:
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We’ve had the good/mis fortune to work a few APEC summits in our former lives as diplomats. We say with confidence it’s the least sexy of the major forums, notorious for its endless texts, labyrinthine ‘working groups’, and questionable fashion choices.
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But talkfests are important, particularly when they give a chance for the two most powerful men on earth to chat about big global issues.
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For example, Biden will ask Xi to use his influence over Iran to make sure the latter doesn’t try to escalate the Israel-Hamas war (China is a big buyer of Iranian oil and therefore has considerable leverage over Tehran).
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Along those lines, we think the real win would be both sides agreeing to resume military-to-military communication. World leaders have been urging Biden and Xi to put a floor under their relationship for years, and getting their two formidable militaries back to talking regularly would be an unsexy (it is APEC, after all) but important step in the right direction.
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Also worth noting:
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APEC is one of very few forums whose members include both China and Taiwan (which Beijing considers a renegade province). That’s why APEC statements tend to refer to ‘economies’ (not ‘countries’).
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Shortly before heading to San Francisco, Biden told reporters he’d consider his meeting with Xi Jinping a success if the two countries “get back on a normal course of corresponding”.
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Russia (also an APEC member) will be represented by a deputy prime minister and other senior officials not under US sanctions.
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇰🇷 South Korea: Authorities released a former Samsung executive on bail over the weekend, after accusing him of stealing industrial secrets on behalf of a client in China. South Korea has clamped down on industrial espionage lately, in part to check China’s chip industry.
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🇩🇪 Germany: Defence Minister Pistorius has said the EU won’t be able to fulfil its pledge of sending a million artillery shells to Ukraine by March. EU foreign and security policy chief Borrell says the problem isn’t a lack of production, but that countries are exporting it elsewhere.
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🇮🇩 Indonesia: The US and Indonesia elevated their bilateral ties to a ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’ during a meeting between Presidents Biden and Widodo on Monday. The two also agreed to more cooperation across space, cyber security, and countering nuclear threats.
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🇬🇾 Guyana: Guyana is asking the International Court of Justice to halt Venezuela’s planned referendum over a disputed oil-rich territory next month. The referendum will ask voters whether Venezuela should annex the region, which Guyana has administered for decades.
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🇿🇦 South Africa: Under new South African guidelines, local agricultural exporters must meet ‘Black Economic Empowerment’ targets to continue obtaining export permits to the EU and the UK. Opposition groups have labelled the decision “economic masochism”.
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On our latest podcast: Has the tide turned in Myanmar’s civil war?
EXTRA INTRIGUE
What we’re reading on the global economy:
QUOTE OF THE DAY
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Nepalese Foreign Minister Narayan Prakash Saud announced a total TikTok ban on Monday (13 November), citing the app’s impact on “social harmony”. Several countries like the US, UK, and New Zealand have restricted TikTok, while others like India and now neighbouring Nepal have banned it outright.
DAILY POLL
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What do you think will come of today’s Xi-Biden meeting? |
Thursday’s poll: Which of the following is the most effective at creating progress on climate issues?
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🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🌏 Global conferences (COP) (17%)
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🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 🗣️ Regional groupings (21%)
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🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ✊ Grassroots advocacy (33%)
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🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🧑⚖️ The courts (20%)
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🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (9%)
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Your two cents:
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✊ G.C: “Grassroots advocacy creates tangible change at the community level, and the importance of that can never be downplayed.”
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✍️ D.L.C: “Technological Advancement.”