Plus: North Korea cancels football game against Japan
Hi Intriguer. The first job I ever had in government was in counter-terrorism. I promise it wasn’t as action-packed as it sounds, though I learned a lot, including around the difficulty for societies trying to find the security sweet spot between paranoia and complacency.
That’s on my mind today, as we get you up to speed on Friday’s mass terrorist attack in Moscow.
– Jeremy Dicker, Managing Editor
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TOP STORY
Moscow’s Crocus City Hall in flames on Friday night. Credits: Maxim Shemetov/Reuters
140 dead in terrorist attack on Moscow
Around 8pm on Friday, four armed men entered the Crocus City Hall in Moscow's outskirts, just as rock band 'Piknik' was set to take the stage. The attackers then used automatic weapons and knives to kill dozens of concertgoers, plus incendiary devices to set a mass fire that killed dozens more.
Russian authorities say some 140 people have now died, with another 60 still in serious condition.
Who did it?
ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K) claimed [Arabic] responsibility on the night of the attack, then repeated its claim on Saturday with evidence: graphic bodycam footage.
ISIS-K is an ISIS offshoot based in Afghanistan, seeking a caliphate in 'Khorasan' – that’s the Persian name for an old region covering parts of Iran, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan, plus (for some) Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
The four shooters (plus several accomplices) were reportedly seized on Saturday, and local outlets are naming them as Dalerjon Mirzoev, Saidakrom Rachabalizoda, Shamsiddin Fariduni, and Muhammadsobir Fayzov. They’re thought to be mostly Tajik, though Tajikistan (which has long struggled with Islamist movements) says there’s been no confirmation.
So why would ISIS-K attack Russia?
The first brief ISIS-K statement cast the victims as “Christians”, in an attempted religious framing that it then reiterated on Saturday, when ISIS-K added it was all part of “the raging war between the Islamic State and countries fighting Islam”:
ISIS and its affiliates have long held Russia responsible for the deaths of Muslims in Afghanistan, Syria, Chechnya and beyond. Their main grievance now is around Putin’s 2015 military intervention in Syria and his later declaration of victory over ISIS, in an alliance that’s left hundreds of thousands of civilians dead.
In response, ISIS and its affiliates have since declared a governorate in Russia’s north Caucasus, downed a Russian airliner in 2015, hit Russia's embassy in Kabul in 2022, and were reportedly foiled in Russia’s city of Kaluga last year, plus the Ingushetia republic and Moscow earlier this month.
In addition to the claims of revenge and religious motivation, these kinds of attacks also aim to establish ISIS as a leader among global jihadi movements, helping to drive recruitment and fundraising while inspiring lone-wolf attacks.
Of course, regular readers will recall the US Embassy in Moscow actually issued a warning about “imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow” two weeks ago, in line with Washington’s ‘duty to warn’ principle.
But just last week, President Putin dismissed the US warning as an attempt "to intimidate and destabilise our society". And in his post-attack address to the nation on Saturday, he made no mention of ISIS, instead seeking to cast blame on Ukraine with allegations that:
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The terrorists were “heading towards Ukraine” when they were caught
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Someone in Ukraine prepared a “window” for them to escape, and
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The attackers were like the "Nazis" who "once carried out massacres in the occupied territories" (a Putinist justification for invading Ukraine).
For its part, the US has (along with much of the West and beyond) unequivocally condemned the attack and expressed condolences for the victims. It’s also rejected, together with Ukraine and others, unsubstantiated allegations that anyone beyond ISIS was behind this attack.
As for Putin? He’s vowing revenge.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
So what does all this mean for Putin?
In theory, an attack like this could dent Putin's image as national guardian and undermine his current narrative of strength, whether on the battlefield in Ukraine or at the voting booths back in Russia.
In theory, it could highlight incompetence among Russia's security services, plus the opportunity cost involved in Putin’s decision to focus them on his invasion abroad and his critics at home (Navalny was convicted of ‘terrorism’).
In theory, it could also dent Putin's narrative of leading a global movement (particularly among the developing world) to push back on US dominance.
But in reality, Putin will do this time what he did after past setbacks, whether it was the 2023 Wagner mutiny, the 2004 Beslan school siege, or others: he’ll seek to use the event to bolster his own power and objectives.
And for now, that means channelling national outrage and grief into a ‘rally-around-the-flag’, to gird his power as well as public support for his invasion.
Also worth noting:
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The Crocus City Hall is located in the Moscow suburb of Krasnogorsk. Opened in 2009, it’s a high-end entertainment and commercial complex that’s hosted major international acts like Eric Clapton.
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ISIS-K also claimed responsibility for suicide bombings in Iran in January, leaving at least 94 people dead.
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇲🇳 Mongolia: Aid agencies have issued an appeal after the harshest winter in decades killed more than 4.7 million herd animals, endangering the livelihoods of thousands of Mongolians. The harsh weather conditions, known as ‘dzud’, have affected three-quarters of the country and are expected to get worse.
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🇪🇸 Spain: The High Court has ordered the temporary ban of encrypted messaging app Telegram from today (Monday) as a precautionary measure. The decision comes after four media groups complained their copyrighted content was being shared on the app without authorisation.
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🇦🇺 Australia: The UK and Australia signed another security pact last week and announced Canberra will invest $3B in Rolls-Royce’s nuclear reactor facilities in the UK as a step towards the future ‘AUKUS’ submarine. The agreement aims to make it easier to consult on issues of national security and conduct joint military exercises.
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🇺🇸 US: The Senate reached an agreement over a $1.2T spending package just minutes before a midnight deadline on Friday. The bill, signed into law by President Biden on Saturday, will keep the lights on through September.
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🇳🇬 Nigeria: Nearly 300 schoolchildren have been returned unharmed after being kidnapped from northeastern Nigeria earlier this month. Authorities have denied paying the $690k ransom demanded by the bandits. At least 1,400 Nigerian schoolchildren have been abducted since 2014.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news
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A new species of Australian beetle was nearly mistaken for bird poop.
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Cambodia’s prime minister has banned musical horns on vehicles after videos emerged of young people dancing curbside to truck horns.
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Iconic British supermarket chain Tesco will have to change its Clubcard logo after a court found it too similar to a rival’s trademark.
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An Australian real estate agent has accidentally burned down a client’s home while tidying up for an open-house viewing.
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And the rats infesting the New Orleans police headquarters are also eating through the precinct’s marijuana evidence stash.
STADIUM OF THE DAY
A Japan v DPRK game was scheduled to be played at the Kim Il-sung Stadium in Pyongyang. Credits: Rodong Sinmun.
North Korea has unexpectedly cancelled its hosting of the 2026 World Cup qualifying match against Japan scheduled for next week, leaving Fifa scrambling to find a “neutral venue”. North Korean authorities are reportedly saying they’re worried about a “malignant infectious disease” spreading in Japan.
DAILY POLL
What do you think this latest Moscow terrorist attack means? |
Last Thursday’s poll: Which of the following do you think contributes most towards the making of a happy nation?
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 1️⃣ GDP per capita (5%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 2️⃣ High levels of social support (45%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 3️⃣ Healthy life expectancy at birth (2%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 4️⃣ Freedom to make life choices (25%)
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 5️⃣ Cultivating a generous society (19%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 6️⃣ Perceptions of corruption (1%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)
Your two cents:
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2️⃣ J: “Having lived in Denmark, not having to worry about the basics of surviving in a modern society provides a level of personal satisfaction that cannot be provided in its absence.”
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4️⃣ Z.S: “I would argue that the freedom to make life choices is intrinsically linked to high levels of social support. When you aren't worried about healthcare, the cost of childcare, or the fallout from losing your job, you can take risks that would otherwise feel impossible.”
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✍️ M: “Lower inequality is the magic ingredient.”
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✍️ D.P: “When we were in Finland last year, we asked a couple of people why they were so happy – ‘We don't talk to each other’ was the common answer.”