🌍 Biden and Modi double down on US-India ties

Hi there Intriguer. The Dutch have loaned their name to all manner of things. You can build up some ‘Dutch courage’ (sink a few beers), reach a ‘Dutch agreement’ (after said beers), then ‘go Dutch’ on the cheque (split it). You can also win a ‘Dutch auction’ (start the bidding high) or warm up a ‘Dutch oven’ (that’s, um… you know what? We better get on with today’s briefing).

Today’s briefing is a 4 min read:

• 🇮🇳 The US and India are getting tighter.

• 🚢 The Panama Canal is getting drier.

• ➕ Plus: What Estonia can offer Ukraine, how the papers are covering Russia’s Wagner mutiny, and how 114% inflation is changing Argentina’s politics.

1. 🇰🇵 North Korea: More than 100,000 people participated in anti-US rallies over the weekend as North Korea marked the 73rd anniversary of the Korean War. State media said Pyongyang has the “strongest absolute weapon to punish the U.S. imperialists”.

2. 🇬🇷 Greece: Kyriakos Mitsotakis won re-election as Greece’s Prime Minister on Sunday, defeating his left-leaning opponent by a 23-point margin. He’s promised to enact sweeping economic reforms.

3. 🇳🇿 New Zealand: Prime Minister Chris Hipkins is in China with a business delegation to deepen ties with New Zealand’s top trade partner. After the US president called Xi Jinping a “dictator” last week, Hipkins said he wouldn’t use similar language himself.

4. 🇬🇹 Guatemala: Following Sunday’s first round ballot, Guatemalans will choose their next president in an August run-off between a veteran politician accused of corruption, and an upstart anti-corruption centrist. In a sign of voter disillusionment, more votes were spoiled (17%) than were cast for any single candidate.

5. 🇮🇱 Israel: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has commended security agencies for thwarting an alleged Iranian plot against Israeli targets in Cyprus. Local media reports say the targets included venues frequented by Israeli tourists.

🇮🇳 India | Geopolitics

Biden and Modi double down on US-India ties

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s whirlwind state visit to the US wrapped up over the weekend.

The two leaders struck some big deals during three days of official business:

• ✈️ US-based General Electric will partner with India-based Hindustan Aeronautics to build jet engines and drones in India

• 💻 US-based Micron Technology will build a $2.75B semiconductor assembly facility with nearly $2B in Indian subsidies, and

• 🤖 A “Hi-Tech Handshake” aims to bolster tech firm cooperation, in a deal that leading India expert Irfan Nooruddin told Intrigue “elevates technology as a core pillar of the partnership.”

The two leaders also unleashed their inner Wordsworth:

• 🌅 Modi told a joint session of US Congress that the “partnership is like the sun in the new dawn that spreads light all around", and

• 😍 President Biden called the US-India relationship “among the most consequential in the world that is stronger, closer and more dynamic in any time in history”.

Intrigue's take: The two leaders also issued a massive (6,500 word) joint statement. And trust us when we tell you that the only thing tougher than reading these kinds of lengthy statements is actually negotiating them.

So it was interesting to see that the US agreed for the statement to include some pretty helpful language on India’s immediate concern (Pakistan). But India didn’t return the favour: there’s zero mention of China or Russia.

That kind of outcome suggests India has a bit of leverage with the US.

Also worth noting:

• Modi is the most popular leader in the world, and is one of only a few to have addressed more than one joint session of Congress (others include Winston Churchill and Nelson Mandela).

• Several members of Congress boycotted Modi’s address on human rights grounds.

• Indian purchases of Russian oil reached a record 1.95 million barrels per day in May.

📰 How newspapers covered…

Reactions to Russia’s Wagner Group mutiny

Today’s newsletter is supported by: Morning Brew

Get smarter in 5 minutes with Morning Brew (it’s free)

There’s a reason over 4 million people start their day with Morning Brew – the daily email that delivers the latest news from Wall Street to Silicon Valley. Business news doesn’t have to be boring…make your mornings more enjoyable, for free.

🚢 Panama | Trade

Drought puts the Panama Canal under pressure

Panama was about to impose weight restrictions on ships transiting its canal, until a last-minute storm lifted its perilously low water levels last week.

The Panama Canal is one of the world’s busiest trade routes: 40% of all US container traffic passes through the 82km canal each year.

But it’s also vulnerable to rainfall variations: its ‘lock’ system uses huge amounts of fresh water to lift ships 26m up and then lower them back down at the other end.

Intrigue’s take: Much of the cargo that’s already in transit was loaded before the recent storms arrived, on the assumption Panama would impose the weight restrictions as planned.

So, those baguette slippers, lightsabre chopsticks, and Nicholas Cage shower curtains you ordered might still be a little delayed.

Also worth noting:

• The canal authority chief has attributed the severity of Panama’s drought to climate change, saying water shortages used to occur every five years, but they now occur every three years.

• One continent over, the Suez Canal just recorded a record revenue of $9.4B in the 2022/23 financial year.

➕ Extra Intrigue

We’re very online, so you don’t have to be.

• The infrastructure trap, and Kenya’s $5B railway to nowhere

• For nonpartisan and trustworthy news that you'll actually enjoy reading, check out the Donut

• How China’s education system trapped a generation

• Could Slovakia threaten European unity? ($)

• 114% inflation is changing Argentina’s politics

🗳️ Poll time!

💬 Quote of the day

How did Estonia become one of the freest and fastest-growing economies in the world? Estonia’s Ambassador to the US, Kristjan Prikk, joined us on Intrigue Outloud to share Estonia’s story and what it means for rebuilding Ukraine.

Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever.

Yesterday’s poll: Do you see Putin still in power by the end of the year?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👑 Yes, despite recent turmoil, he's too deeply entrenched (61%)

🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🙅‍♂️ No, one way or another, he'll be gone before Christmas (38%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🖋️ Other (write in!) (1%)

Your two cents:

• 👑 W.T.S: “Can I take out a life insurance policy on Prigozhin?”

• 🙅‍♂️ M.G: “Russia has too many frustrated power centers for Putin to navigate this time. This will prove to be, as they say, the straw that broke the camel's back. Putin not only has to watch his back, but also his sides, above, and below”

• 🖋️ P.F: “I’ve given up predicting what will happen in Russia”