Plus: Chuckle of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Why did Blinken cancel his Middle East trip? |
2️⃣ The Intrigue jobs board |
3️⃣ Chuckle of the day |
Hi Intriguer. There’ve been a few numbers swirling in my head today. To start: 24, which is the number of times the UN Security Council has met for emergency meetings on Gaza since October 7th.
The council has passed four resolutions on the conflict, including the most recent one in June, which called for a ceasefire and hostage deal.
And eight is the number of times US Secretary of State Blinken has visited the region since October 7th. He was on track to hit nine this week, until word emerged the planned trip is now off, for reasons we’ll explore today.
Regional security in the Middle East is nearly always a game of 6D chess.
PS – ¿Hablas español? ¡Check out our weekly edition in Spanish!
Japan’s Fumio Kishida to step down.
The prime minister has told a press conference he won’t seek re-election, and will instead step down after his Liberal Democratic Party selects a new leader next month. His resignation comes amid record low approval ratings and a political funding scandal that’s plagued his last year at the helm. Names being floated as possible replacements include Shigeru Ishiba (a former party chief), Shinjiro Koizumi (a former PM’s son), and many more. The surprise announcement has had no immediate major effect on Japanese markets.
Germany issues warrant over Nord Stream blast.
Investigators allege a Ukrainian diving instructor was part of a team that blew up the Nord Stream gas pipelines from Russia to Germany in 2022. The suspect was last known to be in Poland. Meanwhile, Russia still seems to be struggling to contain cross-border advances by Ukraine, which launched a massive drone and missile attack along Russia’s border regions overnight.
Thai court dismisses PM.
A Thai court has just dismissed the prime minister for appointing a cabinet minister who was once jailed. Srettha Thavisin has only been in power for less than a year, and is the third PM in 16 years to be ousted by the same court. Parliament now needs to convene to elect a new PM – rarely a smooth process.
New Zealand cuts rates.
The Kiwi central bank has cut rates from 5.5% to 5.25%, citing a slowing economy and easing inflation. As recently as May, the bank had been signalling cuts might not come until August 2025.
Junta denies new coup in Myanmar.
The ruling military junta has denied persistent rumours that its top generals have detained the embattled junta chief in a new coup. Min Aung Hlaing is due to host neighbouring China’s foreign minister in Myanmar today (Wednesday), as the junta continues to lose territory to ethnic armed groups.
Harris campaign targeted by 'foreign influence'.
Kamala Harris's team has said the FBI notified last month that her campaign had been "targeted by a foreign actor influence operation". The FBI is also investigating Donald Trump’s claim that Iran hacked his campaign. Btw – don’t miss our very own Election Intrigue, for a weekly briefing on what the US election means for the world (and vice versa).
TOP STORY
Blinken postpones Middle East trip as world awaits Iran’s threatened assassination response
As you read this, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was supposed to be touching down for his ninth diplomatic blitz in the Middle East since October 7th — the idea was to urge allies, partners, and anyone else who’ll listen to avoid a full regional conflict, 10 months into the Israel-Hamas war.
But then abruptly on Tuesday afternoon, word emerged that the trip was off. It wasn’t entirely surprising, as the details were always elusive — reporters never got Blinken’s schedule, and the White House had just warned on Monday that US intelligence, matching an Israeli assessment, now assesses Iran and/or its proxies could “attack Israel as early as this week”.
Anyway, Blinken’s aides unpacked their bags, cleared his schedule, and the Secretary has stayed put in Washington…for now.
But the Middle East is on edge. Again. Or still. Maybe both?
For a quick refresh, in just the last two weeks…
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Iran inaugurated its new ‘reformist’ president
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One of his guests was Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh, who Israel then assassinated in a supposedly secure Tehran compound hours later
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A humiliated Iran has been vowing revenge ever since
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And it’s been dismissing Western calls to show restraint.
But… Iran’s mission to the UN added a plot twist last Thursday, declaring its first priority is "a durable Gaza ceasefire", while avenging Haniyeh’s assassination was a mere #2. Quite the to-do list. Btw, a quick side-bar:
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Iran sometimes back-channels messages via its UN mission, though its UN diplomats sometimes also just say whatever they think sounds good.
But then… yesterday (Tuesday), Joe Biden gave some credence to the possibility of Iran holding fire for now, answering tarmac reporters who asked if he expected Iran to hit pause if there’s a deal in Gaza: “That is my expectation.“
So it’s now been two weeks since Haniyeh’s assassination on July 31, and while spooks and reporters have poured over the slightest shift of a tea trolley on each Iranian base, it’s still been business as usual – more rocket attacks from Iran’s proxies in Gaza (Hamas) and Lebanon (Hezbollah), plus continued Israeli strikes too.
It’s also meant that for newsrooms everywhere, not to mention our exclusive Intrigue WhatsApp community [free to join for anyone who refers a few friends to Intrigue using your unique link down below], we’ve had multiple days of high-alert, only to then pivot to brief you on (say) Taylor Swift instead. It’s a lot.
But has anything really changed?
While Blinken has postponed his trip, the US has still sent top Middle East adviser Brett McGurk to Cairo and senior envoy Amos Hochstein to Lebanon this week, while CIA director Bill Burns is still scheduled to visit Qatar tomorrow (Thursday) for the latest round of negotiations.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
So then, what (if anything) does Blinken’s trip postponement really mean?
The thinking behind sending someone as senior as Blinken is a little more nuanced than it might seem:
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Sometimes you send a minister because the conditions are right, and VIP engagement can help get a deal over (or at least nearer) the line
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Sometimes there’s little prospect of VIP engagement making any real difference, but there’s still value in turning up as a way to signal to regional and domestic constituencies (“at least we’re trying”), and
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Sometimes cancelling a trip can send a signal too, particularly when it’s alongside new US naval deployments (ie, “we’re serious”)
Blinken’s itinerary has reflected each of these signals at times, and diplomats everywhere will now be trying to parse this latest signal from the noise.
But the US could also be signalling frustration with Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu, given his own fluctuating approach to negotiations: Blinken’s pause comes just hours after the second joint US call for a Gaza deal this week – the first was with regional partners, the second was with Europe.
Both texts make blunt references to “all parties” – but when one of those parties is a listed terrorist organisation with key leaders either dead or in hiding, the message might sound a little louder for the other party: Israel.
Also worth noting:
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The US confirmed approval for a new $20B weapons sale to Israel yesterday (Tuesday).
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UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke on the phone with Iranian President Pezeshkian on Monday, emphasising that “war was not in anyone’s interests.”
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Iran is still reportedly seeking to avenge the US assassination of Qasem Soleimani from back in 2020.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇵🇰 Pakistan: In a rare move, Pakistan’s military has detained the country’s retired former spy chief (Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed) on abuse of power charges. Hameed worked closely with beleaguered former prime minister Imran Khan, and his arrest has sparked speculation the country’s military establishment is settling old scores.
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🇪🇺 EU: The EU’s digital chief, Thierry Breton, is facing flack at home after failing to give others (like his boss Ursula von der Leyen) a heads-up before publicly warning Elon Musk about “harmful content” on Twitter. His open letter referred to Musk’s interview with Donald Trump, triggering concerns the EU could be seen as interfering in a US election.
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🇰🇮 Kiribati: Voting has kicked off today (Wednesday) in the Pacific Island nation of Kiribati (pronounced ‘Kiri-bus’ 🤓), where key issues include living costs, climate change, and the incumbent's growing ties with China. Taneti Maamau, the current president of the country (pop. 115,000), shifted diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 2019.
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🇸🇻 El Salvador: President Nayib Bukele has announced Turkish firm Yilport Holding will invest $1.6B to modernise and operate El Salvador’s Acajutla and La Unión ports. Coming after his 2022 visit to Turkey, Bukele says it’s the largest private investment in El Salvador's history.
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🇱🇾 Libya: Tripoli has expelled two Egyptian diplomats after Egypt's prime minister met the head of a parallel eastern Libyan government that’s not internationally recognised. Egyptian infrastructure firms are active in eastern Libya (eg, Benghazi), but the 2021 ceasefire between Libya’s rival Benghazi and Tripoli factions has looked wobbly lately.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
We’ve rounded up some jobs we thought you might like!
CHUCKLE OF THE DAY
Oscar Wilde once said, “If you’re going to tell people the truth, be funny, or they'll kill you." Still, we wouldn’t advise whichever Russian came up with this absolute belter to tell it in the Kremlin cafeteria – Putin doesn’t seem to have much of a sense of humour these days:
DAILY POLL
Do you think Iran will accept a ceasefire in lieu of retaliation? |
Yesterday’s poll: What's your key factor when deciding where to travel?
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🏛️ Museums (9%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ ☀️ Weather (11%)
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 🌳 Nature (16%)
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🫂 Family and friends (9%)
🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️ 💸 Cost (19%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 😮 Adventure (21%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🗣️ To connect with locals (6%)
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (9%)
Your two cents:
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😮 S.W: “At the end of the day we are looking for travel that involves the ability to go places that are ‘off the beaten path’“.
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🗣️ J.M: “Everyone's corner of the world is beautiful enough to them. I care about the people first and foremost.”
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🌳 T.F: “If it’s someplace within Europe, it’s usually museums, ruins and churches. But if it’s someplace like Bora Bora, it’s nature.”
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🫂 N.A.E.B: “Travel with my family is a multilateral negotiation exercise not unlike negotiating a multilateral agreement, with proposals and counterproposals, trade-offs, and better or worse compromises which get thrown out the moment we arrive at the destination – where negotiation recommences.” [Editor’s note: LoL]
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