๐ŸŒ Canada and China trade diplomatic expulsions


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Hi there Intriguer.ย Itโ€™s high time we dropped some thanks in your inbox. We feel lucky to be here making sense of the world with you, and weโ€™re blown away that more than 40,000 folks read Intrigue each day. So thank you for continuing to share the Intrigue with friends, frolleagues and frenemies. It means the world to us.

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Todayโ€™s briefing is a 4.6 min read:

  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆย Canada and China trade diplomatic punches.

  • ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฒย Turkmenistan can become a climate hero with one easy fix.

  • โž• Plus: Imran Khan gets arrested, how the papers are covering the EU cancelling a reception in Israel, and Lord of the Rings leaves its mark around the world (and beyond).

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๐ŸŽง Todayโ€™s Intrigue Outloud: Are diplomats allowed to spy on their host country?

๐Ÿ—บ๏ธ AROUND THE WORLD
  1. ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณย China: Chinese authorities have raided international consultancy Capvision, alleging the company failed to fulfil its obligations to โ€œprevent espionageโ€. Such raids have become more common since Beijing expanded its anti-espionage laws last month.

  2. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆย Ukraine: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen celebrated Europe Day (9 May) with President Zelensky during a visit to Kyiv. Her presence was intended to send a message of Western unity while Russia celebrated (WWII) Victory Day with military parades.

  3. ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉย Indonesia: Leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are in Indonesia this week to attend the blocโ€™s annual summit. They have plenty to discuss, including the recent attack on an ASEAN humanitarian convoy in Eastern Myanmar.

  4. ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝย Mexico: Mexicoโ€™s high court has partly ruled against a controversial electoral reform package, effectively barring the overhaul of Mexicoโ€™s election oversight body. The ruling is a setback for the administration of Mexicoโ€™s left-leaning president (โ€˜AMLOโ€™), who backed the reform.

  5. ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ผย Zimbabwe: Harare has launched a gold-backed digital currency this week, as the Zimbabwean dollar loses ground against major currencies. Zimbabwe now joins other African states like Nigeria, Ghana and South Africa that have introduced digital currencies.

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ CANADA | GEOPOLITICS

Sino-Canadian relations have taken a turn for the worse.

Canada and China expel diplomats in tit-for-tat

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Briefly: Canada declared Chinese diplomat Zhao Wei โ€˜persona non grataโ€™ this week, expelling him for his alleged role in an effort to intimidate a Canadian lawmaker. China responded by expelling a Canadian diplomat the next day.

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What was it all about?

  • ๐Ÿ™…โ€โ™‚๏ธ The Canadian politicianย had backed a 2021 parliamentary motion to condemn Beijingโ€™s treatment of its Uyghur population

  • ๐Ÿ”Ž In response, the Chinese diplomat (Zhao) allegedly helped target the Canadian politicianโ€™s family in China for possible reprisals. Yikes.

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Canadaโ€™s intelligence service first detected all this back in 2021, but the story stayed under wraps until a top secret report was leaked to media this month. And that piled the pressure on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to boot Zhao.

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The last time Canada did this was in 2018, when Ottawa (politely) booted four Russian diplomats in response to Moscowโ€™s poisoning of an ex-spy in the UK.

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Intrigueโ€™s take: You might be wondering why Zhao was allowed to remain in Canada for two years after his behaviour was discovered. And youโ€™re not alone – the Canadian politician at the centre of the furore has asked the same question.

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The answer might be a simple stuff-up: the prime minister says nobody told him about the case (Trudeau didnโ€™t have a national security advisor at the time).

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And the answer might relate to asymmetry. China can absorb more diplomatic expulsions, impose more trade costs, and impose heavier personal costs on Canadians in China (including several on death row) than the inverse.

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And thatโ€™s enough for most governments to weigh up their options very carefully.

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Also worth noting:

๐Ÿ“ฐ GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES

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How different newspapers covered: The EUโ€™s mission to Israel cancelling an event after far-right minister Itamar Ben-Gvir confirmed his attendance.

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Todayโ€™s briefing is sponsored byย Hubspot

Letโ€™s, as a group, stop fumbling basic communications.

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If you can articulate your thoughts and emotions with clarity, thatโ€™s powerful stuffโ€ฆ and the main reason why HubSpot made this crisp business communication guide. Itโ€™ll help you speak with power and poise in the workplace, which wins brownie points with your peers.

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Go get โ€˜em, champ.

๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฒ TURKMENISTAN | CLIMATE

Massive methane leaks in Turkmenistan

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Briefly: Methane leaks from two of Turkmenistanโ€™s oil and gas fields emitted the equivalent of 366 million tonnes of CO2 last year, according to satellite data.

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Thatโ€™s more carbon than the entire United Kingdom emits in a year.

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The good news: Turkmenistan could apparently address the leaks by fixing just 29 pieces of ageing equipment. Thatโ€™d also mean more product getting to market, and more cash reaching Turkmenistanโ€™s coffers.

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Intrigueโ€™s take: Now that satellite tech has unveiled the scale of the problem, the question is whether Turkmenistan will care. Itโ€™s an energy-rich and hermetic place thatโ€™s long shrugged off criticism from abroad. And so long as the world keeps buying the countryโ€™s gas, itโ€™s hard to see that changing.

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Also worth noting:

  • China receives more natural gas from Turkmenistan than any other country, and plans to double its imports in coming years.

  • The United Arab Emirates signed a gas deal with Turkmenistan in February. Itโ€™ll host the next UN climate change summit later this year.

๐Ÿ‘€ EXTRA INTRIGUE

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This week, scientists named a new species of butterfly after Sauron, the all-seeing villain from Lord of the Rings. So hereโ€™s a few other things from around the world (and beyond) named after the famous literary work of JRR Tolkien:

  • 2991 Bilbo and 2675 Tolkien, two asteroids discovered in 1982

  • Smaug, a protein found in fruit fly embryos

  • Isengard Ridge, an undersea valley in the Atlantic Ocean

  • Tetramorium hobbit, a hairy ant from Madagascar, named after hairy hobbits

๐Ÿ“ธ PHOTO OF THE DAY

Credits: The Tribune.

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Former Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan was arrested by dozens of officers in Islamabad yesterday (Tuesday), in a major escalation of an ongoing corruption case. Khan supporters fanned out across the country in protest.

๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธ POLL TIME!

What do you think the tit-for-tat between Canada and China means?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

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Yesterdayโ€™s poll: If you had $1M to invest in a country, which one would you choose and why?

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๐ŸŸฉ๐ŸŸฉ๐ŸŸฉ๐ŸŸฉ๐ŸŸฉ๐ŸŸฉย ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US (27%)

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๐ŸŸจ๐ŸŸจ๐ŸŸจ๐ŸŸจโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India (23%)

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โฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธ ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China (3%)

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๐ŸŸจโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany (8%)

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๐ŸŸจโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธ ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Nigeria (9%)

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โฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธ ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil (4%)

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๐ŸŸจโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Indonesia (4%)

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๐ŸŸจโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico (6%)

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๐ŸŸจโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ช Kenya (5%)

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๐ŸŸจ๐ŸŸจโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธ ๐Ÿ–Š๏ธ Other (write in!) (11%)

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Your two cents:

  • ๐Ÿ–Š๏ธ N.M.G: โ€œUkraine – I’m hopeful that the rebuilding process will be in full swing in the next 2-3 years.โ€

  • ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณย  S: โ€œIndia because:

    • 1. China+1 strategy being adopted by multinationals (and India can grab a large chunk of the +1 investments)

    • 2. Growing belief that India is poised for growth like China (and unlike China, is a democracy)

    • 3. Non-aligned foreign policy ensuring there is interest from China/Russia/Saudi Arabia AND US/Europe/Australia

    • 4. A large market which cannot be ignoredโ€

  • ๐Ÿ–Š๏ธ J.D.F.P: โ€œBurundi – at the top of lake Tanganyika, a central hub for DRC, Zambia, Tanzania and Rwanda. As an overseas business you can set-up a local company online (with many incentives) in under 2 hours, plus the foreign exchange controls have been dramatically loosened (as of this month). [โ€ฆ] Iโ€™ve invested there and I couldnโ€™t be happier with the outcomes. โ€

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Thank you so much for the torrent of responses! We couldnโ€™t include them all but we read every single one of your messages ๐Ÿ™ – Team Intrigue