🌍 Canada and China trade diplomatic expulsions

🗺️ AROUND THE WORLD

1. 🇨🇳 China: Chinese authorities have raided international consultancy Capvision, alleging the company failed to fulfil its obligations to “prevent espionage”. Such raids have become more common since Beijing expanded its anti-espionage laws last month.

2. 🇺🇦 Ukraine: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen celebrated Europe Day (9 May) with President Zelensky during a visit to Kyiv. Her presence was intended to send a message of Western unity while Russia celebrated (WWII) Victory Day with military parades.

3. 🇮🇩 Indonesia: Leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are in Indonesia this week to attend the bloc’s annual summit. They have plenty to discuss, including the recent attack on an ASEAN humanitarian convoy in Eastern Myanmar.

4. 🇲🇽 Mexico: Mexico’s high court has partly ruled against a controversial electoral reform package, effectively barring the overhaul of Mexico’s election oversight body. The ruling is a setback for the administration of Mexico’s left-leaning president (‘AMLO’), who backed the reform.

5. 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe: Harare has launched a gold-backed digital currency this week, as the Zimbabwean dollar loses ground against major currencies. Zimbabwe now joins other African states like Nigeria, Ghana and South Africa that have introduced digital currencies.

🇨🇦 CANADA | GEOPOLITICS

Canada and China expel diplomats in tit-for-tat

Briefly: Canada declared Chinese diplomat Zhao Wei ‘persona non grata’ this week, expelling him for his alleged role in an effort to intimidate a Canadian lawmaker. China responded by expelling a Canadian diplomat the next day.

What was it all about?

• 🙅‍♂️ The Canadian politician had backed a 2021 parliamentary motion to condemn Beijing’s treatment of its Uyghur population

• 🔎 In response, the Chinese diplomat (Zhao) allegedly helped target the Canadian politician’s family in China for possible reprisals. Yikes.

Canada’s intelligence service first detected all this back in 2021, but the story stayed under wraps until a top secret report was leaked to media this month. And that piled the pressure on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to boot Zhao.

The last time Canada did this was in 2018, when Ottawa (politely) booted four Russian diplomats in response to Moscow’s poisoning of an ex-spy in the UK.

Intrigue’s take: You might be wondering why Zhao was allowed to remain in Canada for two years after his behaviour was discovered. And you’re not alone – the Canadian politician at the centre of the furore has asked the same question.

The answer might be a simple stuff-up: the prime minister says nobody told him about the case (Trudeau didn’t have a national security advisor at the time).

And the answer might relate to asymmetry. China can absorb more diplomatic expulsions, impose more trade costs, and impose heavier personal costs on Canadians in China (including several on death row) than the inverse.

And that’s enough for most governments to weigh up their options very carefully.

Also worth noting:

• Last year, reports emerged of a network of secret Chinese police stations in Canada. And earlier this year, a lawmaker denied accusations he colluded with China to influence his 2019 election.

• South of the border, Washington expelled two Chinese diplomats in 2019 after they drove onto a sensitive US military base. It was the first US expulsion of Chinese diplomats for espionage in more than 30 years.

Today’s briefing is sponsored by Hubspot

🇹🇲 TURKMENISTAN | CLIMATE

Massive methane leaks in Turkmenistan

Briefly: Methane leaks from two of Turkmenistan’s oil and gas fields emitted the equivalent of 366 million tonnes of CO2 last year, according to satellite data.

That’s more carbon than the entire United Kingdom emits in a year.

The good news: Turkmenistan could apparently address the leaks by fixing just 29 pieces of ageing equipment. That’d also mean more product getting to market, and more cash reaching Turkmenistan’s coffers.

Intrigue’s take: Now that satellite tech has unveiled the scale of the problem, the question is whether Turkmenistan will care. It’s an energy-rich and hermetic place that’s long shrugged off criticism from abroad. And so long as the world keeps buying the country’s gas, it’s hard to see that changing.

Also worth noting:

• China receives more natural gas from Turkmenistan than any other country, and plans to double its imports in coming years.

• The United Arab Emirates signed a gas deal with Turkmenistan in February. It’ll host the next UN climate change summit later this year.

👀 EXTRA INTRIGUE

This week, scientists named a new species of butterfly after Sauron, the all-seeing villain from Lord of the Rings. So here’s a few other things from around the world (and beyond) named after the famous literary work of JRR Tolkien:

• 2991 Bilbo and 2675 Tolkien, two asteroids discovered in 1982

• Smaug, a protein found in fruit fly embryos

• Isengard Ridge, an undersea valley in the Atlantic Ocean

• Tetramorium hobbit, a hairy ant from Madagascar, named after hairy hobbits

📸 PHOTO OF THE DAY

Former Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan was arrested by dozens of officers in Islamabad yesterday (Tuesday), in a major escalation of an ongoing corruption case. Khan supporters fanned out across the country in protest.

🗳️ POLL TIME!

Yesterday’s poll: If you had $1M to invest in a country, which one would you choose and why?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🇺🇸 US (27%)

🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 🇮🇳 India (23%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇨🇳 China (3%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇩🇪 Germany (8%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇳🇬 Nigeria (9%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇧🇷 Brazil (4%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇮🇩 Indonesia (4%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇲🇽 Mexico (6%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇰🇪 Kenya (5%)

🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🖊️ Other (write in!) (11%)

Your two cents:

• 🖊️ N.M.G: “Ukraine – I'm hopeful that the rebuilding process will be in full swing in the next 2-3 years.”

• 🇮🇳  S: “India because:

  • 1. China+1 strategy being adopted by multinationals (and India can grab a large chunk of the +1 investments)

  • 2. Growing belief that India is poised for growth like China (and unlike China, is a democracy)

  • 3. Non-aligned foreign policy ensuring there is interest from China/Russia/Saudi Arabia AND US/Europe/Australia

  • 4. A large market which cannot be ignored”

• 🖊️ J.D.F.P: “Burundi – at the top of lake Tanganyika, a central hub for DRC, Zambia, Tanzania and Rwanda. As an overseas business you can set-up a local company online (with many incentives) in under 2 hours, plus the foreign exchange controls have been dramatically loosened (as of this month). […] I’ve invested there and I couldn’t be happier with the outcomes. ”

Thank you so much for the torrent of responses! We couldn’t include them all but we read every single one of your messages 🙏 – Team Intrigue